A Comparison of Methodologies from Two Longitudinal Community-Based Randomized Controlled Trials of Similar Interventions in Palliative Care: What Worked and What Did Not

Background: Methodological challenges such as recruitment problems and participant burden make clinical trials in palliative care difficult. In 2001-2004, two community-based randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of case conferences in palliative care settings were independently conducted in Australia-the Queensland Case Conferences trial (QCC) and the Palliative Care Trial (PCT). Design: A structured comparative study of the QCC and PCT was conducted, organized by known practical and organizational barriers to clinical trials in palliative care. Results: Differences in funding dictated study designs and recruitment success; PCT had 6 times the budget of QCC. Sample size attainment. Only PCT achieved the sample size goal. QCC focused on reducing attrition through gatekeeping while PCT maximized participation through detailed recruitment strategies and planned for significant attrition. Testing sustainable interventions. QCC achieved a higher percentage of planned case conferences; the QCC strategy required minimal extra work for clinicians while PCT superimposed conferences on normal work schedules. Minimizing participant burden. Differing strategies of data collection were implemented to reduce participant burden. QCC had short survey instruments. PCT incorporated all data collection into normal clinical nursing encounters. Other. Both studies had acceptable withdrawal rates. Intention-to-treat analyses are planned. Both studies included substudies to validate new outcome measures. Conclusions: Health service interventions in palliative care can be studied using RCTs. Detailed comparative information of strategies, successes and challenges can inform the design of future trials. Key lessons include adequate funding, recruitment focus, sustainable interventions, and mechanisms to minimize participant burden.

Genetic analyses of DSM-IV nicotine withdrawal in adult twins

Background. We examined whether there are genetic influences on nicotine withdrawal. and whether there are genetic factors specific to nicotine withdrawal, after controlling for factors responsible for risk of progression beyond experimentation with cigarettes and for quantity smoked (average number of cigarettes per day at peak lifetime use). Method. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses were conducted using telephone diagnostic interview data from Young adult Australian twins reporting any cigarette use (3026 women. 2553 men: mean age 30 years). Results. Genetic analysis of the eight symptoms of DSM-IV nicotine withdrawal suggests heritability is intermediate for most symptoms (26-43%). and Similar in men and women. The exceptions were depressed mood upon withdrawal. which had stronger additive genetic influences in men (53%) compared to worrien (29%). and decreased heart rate. which had low heritability (9%). Although prevalence rates were substantlally lower for DSM-IV nicotine withdrawal syndrome (15-9%), which requires impairment. than for the DSM-IV nicotine dependence withdrawal criterion (43.6%), heritability was similar for both measures: as high as 47%. Genetic modeling of smoking more than 1 or 2 cigarettes lifetime ('progression'). qualtity smoked and nicotine withdrawal found significant genetic overlap across all three components of nicotine use/dependence (genetic correlations = 0.53-0.76). Controlling for factors associated with risk of cigarette smoking beyond experimentation and quantity smoked, evidence for genetic influences specific to nicotine withdrawal (up to 23% of total variance) remained. Conclusions. Our results suggest that at least some individuals become 'hooked' or progress in the smoking habit, in part, because of it vulnerability to nicotine withdrawal.

Non-Equilibrium Reaction Rates in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method for DSMC Calculations

The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the flow of rarefied gases. In the Macroscopic Chemistry Method (MCM) for DSMC, chemical reaction rates calculated from local macroscopic flow properties are enforced in each cell. Unlike the standard total collision energy (TCE) chemistry model for DSMC, the new method is not restricted to an Arrhenius form of the reaction rate coefficient, nor is it restricted to a collision cross-section which yields a simple power-law viscosity. For reaction rates of interest in aerospace applications, chemically reacting collisions are generally infrequent events and, as such, local equilibrium conditions are established before a significant number of chemical reactions occur. Hence, the reaction rates which have been used in MCM have been calculated from the reaction rate data which are expected to be correct only for conditions of thermal equilibrium. Here we consider artificially high reaction rates so that the fraction of reacting collisions is not small and propose a simple method of estimating the rates of chemical reactions which can be used in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. Two tests are presented: (1) The dissociation rates under conditions of thermal non-equilibrium are determined from a zero-dimensional Monte-Carlo sampling procedure which simulates ‘intra-modal’ non-equilibrium; that is, equilibrium distributions in each of the translational, rotational and vibrational modes but with different temperatures for each mode; (2) The 2-D hypersonic flow of molecular oxygen over a vertical plate at Mach 30 is calculated. In both cases the new method produces results in close agreement with those given by the standard TCE model in the same highly nonequilibrium conditions. We conclude that the general method of estimating the non-equilibrium reaction rate is a simple means by which information contained within non-equilibrium distribution functions predicted by the DSMC method can be included in the Macroscopic Chemistry Method.

Chronic ethanol treatment leads to increased ornithine decarboxylase activity: Implications for a role of polyamines in ethanol dependence and withdrawal

Recent research has focused on the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor system as a major site of ethanol action in the brain and specifically on compensatory changes in the expression of the polyamine-sensitive NR2B subunit. Therefore, we examined the effects of chronic ethanol treatment on polyamine homeostasis in the rat brain. Wistar rats were made dependent by ethanol vapor inhalation. This caused a rise in hippocampal ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) activity that was correlated with the appearance of physiological dependence. ODC activity returned to control levels within 3 days of ethanol withdrawal. Enzyme activity also increased in the cerebral cortex, striatum, and cerebellum of the ethanol-dependent rats. The concentration of the polyamines (putrescine, spermidine, and spermine) in the hippocampus was increased in ethanol-dependent rats. Injection of the ODC inhibitor, gamma-difluoromethylornithine (500 mg/kg) at the onset of withdrawal resulted in a significant reduction in the severity of withdrawal behaviors. The level of ODC activity and the severity of withdrawal behaviors were positively correlated. Perturbed polyamine homeostasis may represent an important molecular component in the initiation of ethanol withdrawal behaviors in the ethanol-dependent rat.

Chronic ethanol exposure and withdrawal influence NMDA receptor subunit and splice variant mRNA expression in the rat cerebral cortex

Chronic ethanol exposure and subsequent withdrawal are known to change NMDA receptor activity. This study examined the effects of chronic ethanol administration and withdrawal on the expression of several NMDA receptor subunit and splice variant mRNAs in the rat cerebral cortex. Ethanol dependence was induced by ethanol vapour exposure. To delineate between seizure-induced changes in expression during withdrawal and those due to withdrawal per se, another group of naive rats was treated with pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) injection (30 mg/kg, i.p.). RNA samples from the cortices of chronically treated and withdrawing animals were compared to those from pairfed controls. Changes in NMDA receptor mRNA expression were determined using ribonuclease protection assays targetting the NR2A, -2B, -2C and NR1-pan subunits as well as the three alternatively spliced NR1 inserts (NR1-pan describes all the known NR1 splice variants generated from the 5' insert and the two 3' inserts). The ratio of NR1 mRNA incorporating the 5' insert vs, that lacking it was decreased during ethanol exposure and up to 48 h after withdrawal. NR2B mRNA expression was elevated during exposure, but returned to control levels 18 h after withdrawal. Levels of NR2A, NR2C, NR1-pan and both 3' NR1 insert mRNAs from the ethanol-treated groups did not alter compared with the pair-fed control group. No changes in the level of any NMDA receptor subunit mRNA was detected in the PTZ-treated animals. These data support the hypothesis that changes in NMDA receptor subunit composition may underlie a neuronal adaptation to the chronic ethanol-inhibition and may therefore be important in the precipitation of withdrawal hyperactivity. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Information internalization and hurdle rates in small and medium enterprise internationalization

We investigate the role of information in the internationalization of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Information internalization is fundamentally antecedent to SME internationalization and is being facilitated increasingly by recent important trends. We offer a conceptual explanation and related propositions on information internalization, emphasizing hurdle rate theory for ascertaining the acceptability of firms' internationalization projects.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Comparison of trends in method-specific suicide rates in Australia and England & Wales, 1968-97

Objective: To compare secular trends in method-specific suicide rates among young people in Australia and England & Wales between 1968 and 1997. Methods: Australian data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for England & Wales from the Office for National Statistics. Overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-34 year old males and females were calculated using ICD codes E950-9 and E980-9 except E988.8. Results: In both settings, suicide rates have almost doubled in young males over the past 30 years (from 16.8 to 32.9 per 100,000 in Australia and from 10.1 to 19.0 in England & Wales). Overall rates have changed little in young females. In both sexes and in both settings there have been substantial increases in suicide by hanging (5-7 fold increase in Australia and four-fold increase in England & Wales). There have also been smaller increases in gassing in the 1980s and '90s. In females, the impact of these increases on overall rates has been offset by a decline in drug overdose, the most common method in females. Conclusions: Rates of male suicide have increased substantially in both settings in recent years, and hanging has become an increasingly common method of suicide. The similarity in observed trends in both settings supports the view that such changes may have common causes. Research should focus on understanding why hanging has increased in popularity and what measures may be taken to diminish it.

Numerical modelling of double diffusion driven reactive flow transport in deformable fluid-saturated porous media with particular consideration of temperature-dependent chemical reaction rates

Numerical methods ave used to solve double diffusion driven reactive flow transport problems in deformable fluid-saturated porous media. in particular, thp temperature dependent reaction rate in the non-equilibrium chemical reactions is considered. A general numerical solution method, which is a combination of the finite difference method in FLAG and the finite element method in FIDAP, to solve the fully coupled problem involving material deformation, pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and species transport/chemical reactions in deformable fluid-saturated porous media has been developed The coupled problem is divided into two subproblems which are solved interactively until the convergence requirement is met. Owing to the approximate nature of the numerical method, if is essential to justify the numerical solutions through some kind of theoretical analysis. This has been highlighted in this paper The related numerical results, which are justified by the theoretical analysis, have demonstrated that the proposed solution method is useful for and applicable to a wide range of fully coupled problems in the field of science and engineering.

Is ultra-rapid opioid detoxification a viable option in the treatment of opioid dependence?

Ultra-rapid opioid detoxification (UROD) involves the acceleration of opioid withdrawal hv administering thp opioid receptor antagonist naltrexone under general anaesthesia. There is evidence from uncontrolled and a few controlled studies that UROD accelerates opioid withdrawal and that it achieves high rates of completion of acute opioid withdrawal. However, there is clear evidence that the use of a general anaesthetic is not required to accelerate withdrawal or to achieve high rates of completion of acute opioid withdrawal. These goals can be achieved by using naltrexone or naloxone to accelerate withdrawal under light sedation, a procedure known as rapid opioid detoxification under sedation (ROD). There is also evidence that use of an opioid antagonist is not required to achieve a high rate of completion of acute opioid withdrawal. The mixed agonist-antagonist buprenorphine has achieved comparable rates of completion in similarly selected patients with fewer withdrawal symptoms. There is no evidence from controlled trials that either UROD or ROD increases the rate of abstinence from opioids 6 or 12 months after withdrawal. UROD and ROD may increase the number of patients who are inducted onto naltrexone maintenance (NM) therapy but extensive experience with NM therapy suggests that it only has a limited role in selected patients. Given the lack of evidence of substantially increased rates of abstinence, and the need for anaesthetists and high dependency beds, UROD has at best a very minor role in the treatment of a handful of opioid dependent patients who are unable to complete withdraw in any other way. ROD may have more of a role as one option for opioid withdrawal in well motivated patients who want to be rapidly inducted onto NM therapy or who want to enter other types of abstinence-oriented treatment.

Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.