Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach, Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.

Size-based predation by kookaburras (Dacelo novaeguineae) on lizards (Eulamprus tympanum : Scincidae): what determines prey vulnerability?

Lizards and birds are both popular model organisms in behavioural ecology, but the interactions between them have attracted little study. Given the putative importance of birds as predators of diurnal Lizards, it is of considerable interest to know which traits (of lizards as well as birds) influence the outcome of a predatory attempt. We studied predation by giant terrestrial kingfishers (kookaburras, Dacelo novaeguineae: Alcedinidae) on heliothermic diurnal lizards (highland water skinks, Eulamprus tympanum: Scincidae), with particular reference to the role of prey (lizard) size. Our approach was twofold: to gather direct evidence (sizes of lizards consumed in the field, compared to those available) and indirect evidence rite-related shifts in lizard behaviour). We quantified the size structure of a natural population of skinks (determined by an extensive mark-recapture program), and compared it to the sizes of wild lizards taken by kookaburras (determined by analysis of prey remains left at the birds' nests,. Kookaburras showed size-based predation: they preyed mainly on small and medium-sized rather than large lizards in the field. However, the mechanism producing this bias remains elusive. It is not due to any distinctive behavioural attributes (locomotor ability, activity level, habitat usage) of the lizards of the size class disproportionately taken by the kookaburras. The greater vulnerability of subadult lizards may reflect subtle ontogenetic shifts in ecological and behavioural traits, but our data suggest that great caution is needed in inferring patterns of vulnerability to predation from indirect measures based on either the prey or the predator alone. Instead, we need direct observations on the interaction between the two.

The role of cognitive vulnerability and stress in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology

Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Late-season non-selective herbicide application reduces Lolium rigidum seed numbers, seed viability, and seedling fitness

Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of Lolium rigidum (annual ryegrass) seed developmental stage and application rate of glyphosate and SpraySeed (paraquat 135 g/L+ diquat 115 g/L) on the number, germinability, and fitness of seeds produced. Glyphosate (450 g/L) was most effective when applied at a rate of 0.5-1 L/ha during heading and anthesis, reducing the number of filled seeds produced compared with unsprayed plants. Application post-anthesis, when seeds were at the milk to soft dough stage, was less effective. SpraySeed was most effective when applied post-anthesis, during the milk and early dough stages of seed development at a rate of 0.5-1L/ha, resulting in the production of few viable seeds. Although some filled seeds were produced, most of the seeds were dead. Application during anthesis or once the seeds reached soft dough stage was less effective. For both herbicides, those seeds that were capable of germinating were smaller and had slower radicle and coleoptile growth, resulting in slower early seedling growth and reduced biomass production within the first month of growth. Additionally, glyphosate application reduced the proportion of seeds exhibiting dormancy. The anticipated reduction in seed competitive ability and altered emergence timing resulting from late-season herbicide application, even when application timing is not optimal, could be exploited to reduce the likelihood of successful L. rigidum establishment in the following season.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .3. Role of vulnerability factors in postdisaster morbidity

Background. This paper examines the contributions of dispositional and non-dispositional factors to post-disaster psychological morbidity. Data reported are from the 845 participants in the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study. Methods. The phase 1 survey was used to construct dimensional indices of threat and disruption exposure. Subsequently, a range of dispositional characteristics were measured, including neuroticism, personal hopefulness and defence style. The main morbidity measures were the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Dispositional characteristics were the best predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the 2 years post-disaster, contributing substantially more to the variance in morbidity (12-39%) than did initial exposure (5-12%), but the extent of their contribution was greater for general (GHQ-12) than for post-traumatic (IES) morbidity. Among the non-dispositional factors, avoidance coping contributed equally to general and post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.24). Life events since the earthquake (pr = 0.18), poor social relationships (pr = -0.25) and ongoing earthquake-related disruptions (pr = 0.22) also contributed to general morbidity, while only the latter contributed significantly to post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.15). Conclusions. Medium-term post-earthquake morbidity appears to be a function of multiple factors whose contributions vary depending on the type of morbidity experienced and include trait vulnerability, the nature and degree of initial exposure, avoidance coping and the nature and severity of subsequent events.

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Curriculum development for professional ethics in Australian human service university programmes

Australian academics and practitioners in the human services are particularly susceptible to social, political and economic influences in respect of their relevance, viability and operations. In fact, it can be argued that the impact of these influences has placed human service practitioners and academics in a perpetual state of vulnerability. Australian universities have been challenged to make their programmes more relevant and viable to the community at large, and practitioners face increasing workloads with limited resources based on restricted fiscal allocation, and the changing relationship between government and service providers. Drawing on interview data from twenty-one (n = 21) practitioners, this article highlights their identified problems regarding the notion of professionalism in the human services with a particular focus on ethical dilemmas in human service practice. Gleaning these details will be a basis for recommending necessary professionalethics curricula content in human services programmes offered in Australian universities. Moreover, while the research data is Australian based, the authors contend that the universal theories and principles underpinning human service practice justify the significance and value of the data as an important source for international consideration in curriculum development of human service academic programmes.

A typology of community opportunity and vulnerability in metropolitan Australia

A multivariate model using hierarchical clustering and discriminant analysis is used to identify clusters of community opportunity and community vulnerability across Australia's mega metropolitan regions, Variables used in the model measure aspects of structural economic change, occupational change, human capital, income, unemployment, family/household disadvantage, and housing stress. A nine-cluster solution is used to categorise communities across metropolitan space. Significant between-city variations in the incidence of these clusters of opportunity and vulnerability are apparent, suggesting the emergence of marked differentiation between Australia's mega metropolitan regions in their adjustments to changing economic and social conditions. JEL classification: C49, R11, R12.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.