Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

On a resampling approach for tests on the number of clusters with mixture model-based clustering of tissue samples

We consider the problem of assessing the number of clusters in a limited number of tissue samples containing gene expressions for possibly several thousands of genes. It is proposed to use a normal mixture model-based approach to the clustering of the tissue samples. One advantage of this approach is that the question on the number of clusters in the data can be formulated in terms of a test on the smallest number of components in the mixture model compatible with the data. This test can be carried out on the basis of the likelihood ratio test statistic, using resampling to assess its null distribution. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on simulated data and on some microarray datasets, as considered previously in the bioinformatics literature. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A major quantitative trait locus for CD4-CD8 ratio is located on chromosome 11

CD4-CD8 ratio is an important diagnostic measure of immune system functioning. In particular, CD4-CD8 ratio predicts the time taken for progression of HIV infection to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the long-term survival of AIDS patients. To map genes that regulate differences between healthy individuals in CD4-CD8 ratio, we typed 757 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers at an average spacing of similar to5 cM across the genome in 405 pairs of dizygotic twins at ages 12, 14 and 16. We used multipoint variance components linkage analysis to test for linkage between marker loci and CD4-CD8 ratio at each age. We found suggestive evidence of linkage on chromosome 11p in 12-year-old twins (LOD=2.55, P=0.00031) and even stronger evidence of linkage in the same region at age 14 (LOD 3.51, P=0.00003). Possible candidate genes include CD5 and CD6, which encode cell membrane proteins involved in the positive selection of thymocytes. We also found suggestive evidence of linkage at other areas of the genome including regions on chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 15, 17 and 22.

Genetic and environmental sources of covariance between reading tests used in neuropsychological assessment and IQ subtests

In this study, we examined genetic and environmental influences on covariation among two reading tests used in neuropsychological assessment (Cambridge Contextual Reading Test [CCRT], [Beardsall, L., and Huppert, F. A. ( 1994). J. Clin. Exp. Neuropsychol. 16: 232 - 242], Schonell Graded Word Reading Test [SGWRT], [ Schonell, F. J., and Schonell, P. E. ( 1960). Diagnostic and attainment testing. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd.]) and among a selection of IQ subtests from the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB), [Jackson, D. N. (1984). Multidimensional aptitude battery, Ontario: Research Psychologists Press.] and the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) [Wechsler, D. (1981). Manual for the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R). San Antonio: The Psychological Corporation]. Participants were 225 monozygotic and 275 dizygotic twin pairs aged from 15 years to 18 years ( mean, 16 years). For Verbal IQ subtests, phenotypic correlations with the reading tests ranged from 0.44 to 0.65. For Performance IQ subtests, phenotypic correlations with the reading tests ranged from 0.23 to 0.34. Results of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) supported a model with one genetic General factor and three genetic group factors ( Verbal, Performance, Reading). Reading performance was influenced by the genetic General factor ( accounting for 13% and 20% of the variance for the CCRT and SGWRT, respectively), the genetic Verbal factor ( explaining 17% and 19% of variance for the CCRT and SGWRT), and the genetic Reading factor ( explaining 21% of the variance for both the CCRT and SGWRT). A common environment factor accounted for 25% and 14% of the CCRT and SGWRT variance, respectively. Genetic influences accounted for more than half of the phenotypic covariance between the reading tests and each of the IQ subtests. The heritabilities of the CCRT and SGWRT were 0.54 and 0.65, respectively. Observable covariance between reading assessments used by neuropsychologists to estimate IQ and IQ subtests appears to be largely due to genetic effects.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.