Integrating spatial optimization and cellular automata for evaluating urban change

Urban growth and change presents numerous challenges for planners and policy makers. Effective and appropriate strategies for managing growth and change must address issues of social, environmental and economic sustainability. Doing so in practical terms is a difficult task given the uncertainty associated with likely growth trends not to mention the uncertainty associated with how social and environmental structures will respond to such change. An optimization based approach is developed for evaluating growth and change based upon spatial restrictions and impact thresholds. The spatial optimization model is integrated with a cellular automata growth simulation process. Application results are presented and discussed with respect to possible growth scenarios in south east Queensland, Australia.

Change in physiotherapy management of children with cystic fibrosis in a large urban hospital

A retrospective audit was conducted in 1998 and 2000 to review the physiotherapy management of hospitalized children with cystic fibrosis (CF) at the Brisbane Royal Children's Hospital (RCH). The objective was to detect and explore possible changes in patient management in this time period and investigate whether these changes reflected changes in the current theory of CF management. All children over two years of age with CF admitted during 1998 and 2000 with pulmonary manifestation and who satisfied set criteria were included (n = 249). Relative frequency of each of six treatment modalities used were examined on two occasions, revealing some degree of change in practice reflecting the changes in current theory. There was a significant decrease in the frequency of usage of postural drainage with head-down tilt (p < 0.001), and autogenic drainage (p < 0.001) between 1998 and 2000. Modified postural drainage without head-down tilt (p < 0.001), and positive expiratory pressure devices (p < 0.001) were used more frequently in 2000 (p < 0.001). No significant changes were identified in the use of Flutter VRP1 (p = 0.145) and exercise (p = 0.763). No significant differences were found in population demographics or occurrence of concomitant factors that may influence patient management.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary history of Symbiodinium and scleractinian hosts - Symbiosis, diversity, and the effect of climate change

Marine invertebrates representing at least five phyla are symbiotic with dinoflagellates from the genus Symbiodinium. This group of single-celled protists was once considered to be a single pandemic species, Symbiodinium microadriaticum. Molecular investigations over the past 25 years have revealed, however, that Symbiodinium is a diverse group of organisms with at least eight (A-H) divergent clades that in turn contain multiple molecular subclade types. The diversity within this genus may subsequently determine the response of corals to normal and stressful conditions, leading to the proposal that the symbiosis may impart unusually rapid adaptation to environmental change by the metazoan host. These questions have added importance due to the critical challenges that corals and the reefs they build face as a consequence of current rapid climate change. This review outlines our current understanding of the diverse genus Symbiodinium and explores the ability of this genus and its symbioses to adapt to rapid environmental change. (c) 2006 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Cattle, crops and clearing: Regional drivers of landscape change in the Brigalow Belt, Queensland, Australia, 1840-2004

Landscape change occurs through the interaction of a multitude of natural and human driving forces at a range of organisational levels, with humans playing an increasingly dominant role in many regions of the world. Building on the current knowledge of the underlying drivers of landscape change, a conceptual framework of regional landscape change was developed which integrated population, economic and cultural values, policy and science/technology. Using the Southern Brigalow Belt biogeographic region of Queensland as a case study, the role of natural and human drivers in landscape change was investigated in four phases of settlement since 1840. The Brigalow Belt has experienced comparable rates of vegetation clearance over the past 50 years to areas of tropical deforestation. Economic factors were important during all phases of development, but the five regional drivers often acted in synergy. Environmental constraints played a significant role in slowing rates of change. Temporal trends of deforestation followed a sigmoidal curve, with initial slow change accelerating though the middle phases then slowing in recent times. Future landscape management needs to take account of the influence of all the components of the conceptual framework, at a range of organisational levels, if more ecologically sustainable outcomes are to be achieved. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of migration in urban transition : studies of the relationship between migration and modernisation for Brisbane and Stockholm

Wilbur Zelinsky formulated a Hypothesis of Mobility Transition in 1971,in which he tried to relate all aspects of mobility to the Demographic Transition and modernisation. This dissertation applies the theoretical framework, proposed by Zelinsky and extended to encompass a family of transitions, to understand migration patterns of city regions. The two city regions, Brisbane and Stockholm, are selected as case studies, representing important city regions of similar size, but drawn from contrasting historical settings. A comparison of the case studies with the theoretical framework aims to determine how the relative contributions of net migration, the source areas of migrants, and the migration intensity change with modernisation. In addition, the research also aims to identify aspects of modernisation affecting migration. These aspects of migration are analysed with a "historical approach" and a "multivariate approach". An extensive investigation into the city regions' historical background provides the source, from which evidence for a relationship between migration and modernisation is extracted. With this historical approach, similarities and differences in migration patterns are identified. The other research approach analyse multivariate data, from the last two decades, on migration flows and modernisation. Correlations between migration and key aspects of modernisation are tested with multivariate regression, based on an alternative version of a spatial interaction model. The project demonstrates that the changing functions of cities and the structural modernisation are influential on migration. Similar patterns are found, regarding the relative contributions of net migration and natural increase to population growth. The research finds links between these changes in the relative contribution of net migration and demographic modernisation. The findings on variations in urban and rural source areas of migrants to city regions do not contradict the expected pattern, but data limitations prevent definite conclusion to be drawn. The assessment of variations in migration intensity resulted in the expected pattern not being supported. Based on Swedish data, the hypothesised increase in migration intensity is rejected. Interactional migration data also show patterns different from those derived from the theoretical framework. The findings, from both research approaches, suggested that structural modernisation affected migration flows more than demographic modernisation. The findings lead to a formulation of hypothesised patterns for migration to city regions. The study provides an important research contribution by applying the two research approaches to city regions. It also combines the study of internal and international migration to address the research objectives within a framework of transitional change.

All in Good Time: Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity

Since their discovery 150 years ago, Neanderthals have been considered incapable of behavioural change and innovation. Traditional synchronic approaches to the study of Neanderthal behaviour have perpetuated this view and shaped our understanding of their lifeways and eventual extinction. In this thesis I implement an innovative diachronic approach to the analysis of Neanderthal faunal extraction, technology and symbolic behaviour as contained in the archaeological record of the critical period between 80,000 and 30,000 years BP. The thesis demonstrates patterns of change in Neanderthal behaviour which are at odds with traditional perspectives and which are consistent with an interpretation of increasing behavioural complexity over time, an idea that has been suggested but never thoroughly explored in Neanderthal archaeology. Demonstrating an increase in behavioural complexity in Neanderthals provides much needed new data with which to fuel the debate over the behavioural capacities of Neanderthals and the first appearance of Modern Human Behaviour in Europe. It supports the notion that Neanderthal populations were active agents of behavioural innovation prior to the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe and, ultimately, that they produced an early Upper Palaeolithic cultural assemblage (the Châtelperronian) independent of modern humans. Overall, this thesis provides an initial step towards the development of a quantitative approach to measuring behavioural complexity which provides fresh insights into the cognitive and behavioural capabilities of Neanderthals.

Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity: An Innovative Approach to the Study of Neanderthal Behaviour

Diachronic approaches provide potential for a more sophisticated framework within which to examine change in Neanderthal behavioural complexity using archaeological proxies such as symbolic artefacts, faunal assemblages and technology. Analysis of the temporal appearance and distribution of such artefacts and assemblages provide the basis for identifying changes in Neanderthal behavioural complexity in terms of symbolism, faunal extraction and technology respectively. Although changes in technology and faunal extraction were examined in the wider study, only the results of the symbolic study are presented below to illustrate the potential of the approach.

Children’s respiratory health and daily particulate levels in ten non-urban communities

We conducted a study to assess the association between the acute respiratory health of children and the levels of particulates in communities near and away from active opencast coal mines. The study enrolled children aged 1–11 years from the general population of five socioeconomically matched pairs of nonurban communities in northern England. Diaries of respiratory events were collected for 1405 children, and information was collected on the consultations of 2442 children with family/general practitioners over the 6-week study periods during 1996–1997, with concurrent monitoring of particulate levels. The associations found between daily PM10 levels and respiratory symptoms were frequently small and positive and sometimes varied between communities. The magnitude of these associations were in line with those from previous studies, even though daily particulate levels were low, and the children were drawn from the general population, rather than from the population with respiratory problems. The associations among asthma reliever use, consultations with general practitioners, and daily particulate levels were of a similar strength but estimated less precisely. The strength of association between all respiratory health measures and particulate levels was similar in communities near and away from opencast coal mining sites.