Thermal effects in the evolution of initially layered mantle material

A simplified model for anisotropic mantle convection based on a novel class of rheologies, originally developed for folding instabilities in multilayered rock (MUHLHAUS et al., 2002), is extended ¨ through the introduction of a thermal anisotropy dependent on the local layering. To examine the effect of the thermal anisotropy on the evolution of mantle material, a parallel implementation of this model was undertaken using the Escript modelling toolkit and the Finley finite-element computational kernel (DAVIES et al., 2004). For the cases studied, there appears too little if any effect. For comparative purposes, the effects of anisotropic shear viscosity and the introduced thermal anisotropy are also presented. These results contribute to the characterization of viscous anisotropic mantle convection subject to variation in thermal conductivities and shear viscosities.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.

Implementation of particle-scale rotation in the 3-d Lattice Solid Model

In this study, 3-D Lattice Solid Model (LSMearth or LSM) was extended by introducing particle-scale rotation. In the new model, for each 3-D particle, we introduce six degrees of freedom: Three for translational motion, and three for orientation. Six kinds of relative motions are permitted between two neighboring particles, and six interactions are transferred, i.e., radial, two shearing forces, twisting and two bending torques. By using quaternion algebra, relative rotation between two particles is decomposed into two sequence-independent rotations such that all interactions due to the relative motions between interactive rigid bodies can be uniquely decided. After incorporating this mechanism and introducing bond breaking under torsion and bending into the LSM, several tests on 2-D and 3-D rock failure under uni-axial compression are carried out. Compared with the simulations without the single particle rotational mechanism, the new simulation results match more closely experimental results of rock fracture and hence, are encouraging. Since more parameters are introduced, an approach for choosing the new parameters is presented.

Parallel 3D Simulation of a Fault Gouge using the Lattice Solid Model

Despite the insight gained from 2-D particle models, and given that the dynamics of crustal faults occur in 3-D space, the question remains, how do the 3-D fault gouge dynamics differ from those in 2-D? Traditionally, 2-D modeling has been preferred over 3-D simulations because of the computational cost of solving 3-D problems. However, modern high performance computing architectures, combined with a parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model (LSM), provide the opportunity to explore 3-D fault micro-mechanics and to advance understanding of effective constitutive relations of fault gouge layers. In this paper, macroscopic friction values from 2-D and 3-D LSM simulations, performed on an SGI Altix 3700 super-cluster, are compared. Two rectangular elastic blocks of bonded particles, with a rough fault plane and separated by a region of randomly sized non-bonded gouge particles, are sheared in opposite directions by normally-loaded driving plates. The results demonstrate that the gouge particles in the 3-D models undergo significant out-of-plane motion during shear. The 3-D models also exhibit a higher mean macroscopic friction than the 2-D models for varying values of interparticle friction. 2-D LSM gouge models have previously been shown to exhibit accelerating energy release in simulated earthquake cycles, supporting the Critical Point hypothesis. The 3-D models are shown to also display accelerating energy release, and good fits of power law time-to-failure functions to the cumulative energy release are obtained.