On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

Effect of periodontal treatment on the C-reactive protein and proinflammatory cytokine levels in Japanese periodontitis patients

Background: Recent epidemiological studies have shown that individuals with periodontitis have a significantly increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. In addition to conventional risk factors, chronic infection and subsequent production of systemic inflammatory markers may be associated with this increased risk. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine whether the presence of chronic periodontitis and subsequent periodontal treatment could influence the serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) in a Japanese population. Methods: Sera were obtained from 24 patients with moderate to advanced periodontitis at the baseline examination and at reassessment after completion of treatment. As a control, sera were also obtained from 21 subjects without periodontitis. High-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) was measured using nephelometry with a latex particle-enhanced immunoassay and interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha were determined by sensitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: The levels of hs-CRP and interleukin-6 in the sera of this Japanese population seemed to be much lower than those reported in other populations. TNF-alpha on the other hand, demonstrated similar levels between this Japanese and other populations. Periodontal status demonstrated a significant improvement in all patients following treatment. There was a trend toward higher hs-CRP levels in patients at baseline compared with control subjects. Hs-CRP level tended to decrease with improvement of the periodontal condition following treatment and approached that of control subjects, although this decline was not statistically significant. interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha levels did not change following periodontal treatment. Furthermore, there was no difference in the serum levels of these inflammatory cytokines between patients either at baseline or at reassessment and control subjects. Conclusions: In this pilot study, we were unable to show that periodontal disease significantly affects the serum levels of systemic inflammatory markers. However, this does not necessarily mean that periodontitis does not contribute to the total burden of inflammation as there was a tendency for hs-CRP to decrease following successful periodontal treatment. Large-scale studies are clearly needed to determine the impact of periodontal disease on systemic inflammation.

Physical activity cost in children following an acquired brain injury - a comparative study

Background: Alterations in energy expenditure during activity post head injury has not been investigated due primarily to the difficulty of measurement. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare energy expenditure during activity and body composition of children following acquired brain injury (ABI) with data from a group of normal. controls. Design: Energy expenditure was measured using the Cosmed K4b(2) in a group of 15 children with ABI and a group of 67 normal children during rest and when walking and running. Mean number of steps taken per 3 min run was also recorded and body composition was measured. Results: The energy expended during walking was not significantly different between both groups. A significant difference was found between the two groups in the energy expended during running and also for the number of steps taken as children with ABI took significantly less steps than the normal controls during a 3 min run. Conclusions: Children with ABI exert more energy per activity than healthy controls when controlled for velocity or distance. However, they expend less energy to walk and run when they are free to choose their own desirable, comfortable pace than normal controls. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carboplatin pharmacokinetics following a single-dose infusion in sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita)

Objective To determine the pharmacokinetics of carboplatin in sulphur-crested cockatoos, so that its use in clinical studies in birds can be considered. Design A pharmacokinetic study of carboplatin, following a single intravenous (IV) or intraosseus (10) infusion over 3 min, was performed in six healthy sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita). Procedure Birds were anaesthetised and a jugular vein cannulated for blood collection. Carboplatin (5 mg/kg) was infused over 3 min by the IV route in four birds via the contralateral jugular vein, and by the 10 route in two birds via the ulna. Serial blood samples were collected for 96 h after initiation of the infusion. Tissue samples from 11 organs were obtained at necropsy, 96 h after carboplatin administration. Total Pt and filterable Pt in plasma and tissue Pt concentrations were assayed by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. A noncompartmental pharmacokinetic analysis was performed on the plasma data. Results The mean +/- SD for the C-max of filterable Pt was 27.3 +/- 4.06 mg/L and in all six birds occurred at the end of the 3 min infusion, thenceforth declining exponentially over the next 6 h to an average concentration of 0.128 +/- 0.065 mg/L. The terminal half-life (T-1/2) was 1.0 +/- 0.17 h, the systemic clearance (CI) was 5.50 +/- 1.06 mL/min/kg and the volume of distribution (Vss) was 0.378 +/- 0.073 L/kg. The extrapolated area under the curve (AUC(0-x)) was 0.903 +/- 0.127 mg/mL.min; the area extrapolated past the last (6 h) data point to infinite time averaged only 1.25% of the total AUC(0-x). The kidneys had the greatest accumulation of Pt (7.04 +/- 3.006 mug/g), followed by the liver (3.08 +/- 1.785 mug/g DM). Conclusions and clinical relevance Carboplatin infusion in sulphur-crested cockatoos produced mild, transient alimentary tract signs and the Pt plasma concentration was similar whether carboplatin was given intravenously or intraosseously. Filterable plasma Pt concentrations for carboplatin persisted longer than for cisplatin, due mostly to the difference in systemic clearance between these drugs in sulphur-crested cockatoos. The distribution of tissue Pt after carboplatin administration was similar to that reported for cisplatin in sulphur-crested cockatoos. Despite anatomical, physiological and biochemical differences among animal species, the pharmacokinetic disposition of filterable Pt in the sulphur-crested cockatoo shares some features with the kinetics reported previously in other animals and human beings.

Doxorubicin pharmacokinetics following a single-dose infusion to sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita)

Objective To determine the pharmacokinetics of doxorubicin in sulphur-crested cockatoos, so that its use in clinical studies in birds can be considered. Design A pharmacokinetic study of doxorubicin, following a single intravenous (IV) infusion over 20 min, was performed in four healthy sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita). Procedure Birds were anaesthetised and both jugular veins were cannulated, one for doxorubicin infusion and the other for blood collection. Doxorubicin hydrochloride (2 mg/kg) in normal saline was infused IV over 20 min at a constant rate. Serial blood samples were collected for 96 h after initiation of the infusion. Plasma doxorubicin concentrations were assayed using an HPLC method involving ethyl acetate extraction, reverse-phase chromatography and fluorescence detection. The limit of quantification was 20 ng/mL. Established non-parametric methods were used for the analysis of plasma doxorubicin data. Results During the infusion the mean +/- SD for the C-max of doxorubicin was 4037 +/- 2577 ng/mL. Plasma concentrations declined biexponentially immediately after the infusion was ceased. There was considerable intersubject variability in all pharmacokinetic variables. The terminal (beta-phase) half-life was 41.4 +/- 18.5 min, the systemic clearance (Cl) was 45.7 +/- 18.0 mL/min/kg, the mean residence time (MRT) was 4.8 +/- 1.4 min, and the volume of distribution at steady state (V-SS) was 238 131 mL/kg. The extrapolated area under the curve (AUC(0-infinity)) was 950 +/- 677 ng/mL.h. The reduced metabolite, doxorubicinol, was detected in the plasma of all four parrots but could be quantified in only one bird with the profile suggesting formation rate-limited pharmacokinetics of doxorubicinol. Conclusions and clinical relevance Doxorubicin infusion in sulphur-crested cockatoos produced mild, transient inappetence. The volume of distribution per kilogram and terminal half-life were considerably smaller, but the clearance per kilogram was similar to or larger than reported in the dog, rat and humans. Traces of doxorubicinol, a metabolite of doxorubicin, were detected in the plasma.

Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of cholinergic drugs for neuroleptic-induced tardive dyskinesia: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

The authors evaluated the efficacy of cholinergic drugs in the treatment of neuroleptic-induced tardive dyskinesia (TD) by a systematic review of the literature on the following agents: choline, lecithin, physostigmine, tacrine, 7-methoxyacridine, ipidacrine, galantamine, donepezil, rivastigmine, eptastigmine, metrifonate, arecoline, RS 86, xanomeline, cevimeline, deanol, and meclofenoxate. All relevant randomized controlled trials, without any language or year limitations, were obtained from the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Register of Trials. Trials were classified according to their methodological quality. For binary and continuous data, relative risks (RR) and weighted or standardized mean differences (SMD) were calculated, respectively. Eleven trials with a total of 261 randomized patients were included in the meta-analysis. Cholinergic drugs showed a minor trend for improvement of tardive dyskinesia symptoms, but results were not statistically significant (RR 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.04, p=0.11). Despite an extensive search of the literature, eligible data for the meta-analysis were few and no results reached statistical significance. In conclusion, we found no evidence to support administration of the old cholinergic agents lecithin, deanol, and meclofenoxate to patients with tardive dyskinesia. In addition, two trials were found on novel cholinergic Alzheimer drugs in tardive dyskinesia, one of which was ongoing. Further investigation of the clinical effects of novel cholinergic agents in tardive dyskinesia is warranted. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population pharmacokinetics and association between A77 1726 plasma concentrations and disease activity measures following administration of leflunomide to people with rheumatoid arthritis

Aims To investigate the concentration-effect relationship and pharmacokinetics of leflunomide in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods Data were collected from 23 RA patients on leflunomide therapy (as sole disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)) for at least 3 months. Main measures were A77 1726 (active metabolite of leflunomide) plasma concentrations and disease activity measures including pain, duration/intensity of morning stiffness, and SF-36 survey. A population estimate was sought for apparent clearance (CL/F ) and volume of distribution was fixed (0.155 l kg(-1)). Factors screened for influence on CL/F were weight, age, gender and estimated creatinine clearance. Results Significantly higher A77 1726 concentrations were seen in patients with less swollen joints and with higher SF-36 mental summary scores than in those with measures indicating more active disease (P < 0.05); concentration-effect trends were seen with five other disease activity measures. Statistical analysis of all disease activity measures showed that mean A77 1726 concentrations in groups with greater control of disease activity were significantly higher than those in whom the measures indicated less desirable control (P < 0.05). There was large between subject variability in the dose-concentration relationship. A steady-state infusion model best described the pharmacokinetic data. Inclusion of age as a covariate decreased interindividual variability (P < 0.01), but this would not be clinically important in terms of dosage changes. Final parameter estimate (% CV interindividual variability) for CL/F was 0.0184 l h(-1) (50%) (95% CI 0.0146, 0.0222). Residual (unexplained) variability (% CV) was 8.5%. Conclusions This study of leflunomide in patients using the drug clinically indicated a concentration-effect relationship. From our data, a plasma A77 1726 concentration of 50 mg l(-1) is more likely to indicate someone with less active disease than is a concentration around 30 mg l(-1). The marked variability in pharmacokinetics suggests a place for individualized dosing of leflunomide in RA therapy.

Reduced inspiratory muscle endurance following successful weaning from prolonged mechanical ventilation

Study objectives: Respiratory muscle weakness and decreased endurance have been demonstrated following mechanical ventilation. However, its relationship to the duration of mechanical ventilation is not known. The aim of this study was to assess respiratory muscle endurance and its relationship to the duration of mechanical ventilation. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Tertiary teaching hospital ICU. Patients: Twenty subjects were recruited for the study who had received mechanical ventilation for a 48 h and had been discharged from the ICU. Measurements: FEV1 FVC, and maximal inspiratory pressure (Pimax) at functional residual capacity were recorded. The Pimax attained following resisted inspiration at 30% of the initial Pimax for 2 min was recorded, and the fatigue resistance index (FRI) [Pimax final/Pimax initial] was calculated. The duration of ICU length of stay (ICULOS), duration of mechanical ventilation (MVD), duration of weaning (WD), and Charlson comorbidities score (CCS) were also recorded. Relationships between fatigue and other parameters were analyzed using the Spearman correlations (p). Results: Subjects were admitted to the ICU for a mean duration of 7.7 days (SD, 3.7 days) and required mechanical ventilation for a mean duration of 4.6 days (SD, 2.5 days). The mean FRI was 0.88 (SD, 0.13), indicating a 12% fall in Pimax, and was negatively correlated with MVD (r = -0.65; p = 0.007). No correlations were found between the FRI and FEV1, FVC, ICULOS, WD, or CCS. Conclusions: Patients who had received mechanical ventilation for > 48 h have reduced inspiratory muscle endurance that worsens with the duration of mechanical ventilation and is present following successful weaning. These data suggest that patients needing prolonged mechanical ventilation are at risk of respiratory muscle fatigue and may benefit from respiratory muscle training.

Kinematic analysis of jaw function in children following traumatic brain injury

Primary objective: To investigate jaw movements in children following traumatic brain injury (TBI) during speech using electromagnetic articulography (EMA). Methods and procedures: Jaw movements of two non-dysarthric children ( aged 12.75 and 13.08 years) who had sustained a TBI were recorded using the AG-100 EMA system (Carstens Medizineletronik) during word-initial consonant productions. Mean quantitative kinematic parameters and coefficient of variation ( variability) values were calculated and individually compared to the mean values obtained by a group of six control children ( mean age 12.57 years, SD 1.52). Main outcomes and results: The two children with TBI exhibited word-initial consonant jaw movement durations that were comparable to the control children, with sub-clinical reductions in speed being offset by reduced distances. Differences were observed between the two children in jaw kinematic variability, with one child exhibiting increased variability, while the other child demonstrated reduced or comparable variability compared to the control group. Conclusions: Possible sub-clinical impairments of jaw movement for speech were exhibited by two children who had sustained a TBI, providing insight into the consequences of TBI on speech motor control development.

Posttraumatic stress disorder and general psychopathology in children and adolescents following a wildfire disaster

Objective: To report on the use of the Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Reaction Index (PTSD-RI) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) in identifying children and adolescents who may require psychological interventions following exposure to a wildfire disaster. Method: Six months after a wildfire disaster, we conducted a school-based program to screen for wildfire-related events, such as exposure to and perception of threat, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and general psychopathology. Results: The screening battery was completed by 222 children (mean age 12.5 years, SD 2.48; range 8 to 18 years). Severe or very severe PTSD was reported by 9.0% of students, while 22.6% scored in the abnormal range on the Emotional Symptoms subscale of the SDQ. Younger children and individuals with greater exposure to and perception of threat experienced higher levels of PTSD and general psychopathology. Female students reported a greater perception of threat but did not report higher levels of PTSD or other symptoms. Conclusions: Screening was well received by students, parents, and staff and proved feasible in the postdisaster environment. The PTSD-RI and SDQ demonstrated different individual risk associations and functioned as complementary measures within the screening battery. The identification of children at greatest risk of mental health morbidity enabled service providers to selectively target limited mental health resources.

Morbidity due to Schistosoma mansoni: an epidemiological assessment of distended abdomen syndrome in Ugandan school children with observations before and 1-year after anthelminthic chemotherapy

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence and distribution of distended abdomens among Ugandan school children across a range of eco-epidemiological settings and to investigate the relationship between distended abdomens and helminth infections, in particular Schistosoma mansoni, before and 1-year after anthelminthic treatment. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 4354 school children across eight districts, with a longitudinal 1-year follow-up of 2644 children (60.7%). On both occasions, parasitological, biometrical and clinical data were collected for each child. Baseline prevalence of S. mansoni and hookworms was 44.3% and 51.8%, respectively. Distended abdomens, defined as an abdominal circumference ratio (ACR) >1.05, were observed in 2.5% of the sampled children, several of whom presented with particularly severe distensions necessitating hospital referral. ACR scores were highly overdispersed between districts and schools. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that S. mansoni infection accounted for only a small fraction of ACR variation, suggesting that either single point prevalence and intensity measures failed to reflect this more chronically evolved morbidity and/or that other interacting factors were involved, e.g. malnutrition and malaria. At 1-year follow-up, ACR scores showed an overall trend of regression towards the mean, potentially indicative of amelioration following chemotherapy, but geographic overdispersion still remained. © 2006 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Whole brain irradiation following surgery or radiosurgery for solitary brain metastases: Mature results of a prematurely closed randomized Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group trial (TROG 98.05)

We evaluated the effect of adjuvant whole brain irradiation (WBI) after surgery or radiosurgery for solitary brain metastases in a Phase III multicentre trial with randomization to 30-36 Gy WBI or observation. The study was closed early due to slow accrual after 19 patients (WBI 10, observation 9). There was no difference in CNS failure-free survival or overall survival between the arms. There was a trend to reduced CNS relapse with WBI (30% versus 78%, P = 0.12). Limited analysis of quality of life and neurocognitive function data revealed no evidence of difference between the arms. Our results are not inconsistent with two larger randomized trials and support the use of upfront WBI to decrease brain recurrence in this setting. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.