Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Facilitating soil-and plant-water research through the use of TDR

The development of TDR for measurement of soil water content and electrical conductivity has resulted in a large shift in measurement methods for a breadth of soil and hydrological characterization efforts. TDR has also opened new possibilities for soil and plant research. Five examples show how TDR has enhanced our ability to conduct our soil- and plant-water research. (i) Oxygen is necessary for healthy root growth and plant development but quantitative evaluation of the factors controlling oxygen supply in soil depends on knowledge of the soil water content by TDR. With water content information we have modeled successfully some impact of tillage methods on oxygen supply to roots and their growth response. (ii) For field assessment of soil mechanical properties influencing crop growth, water content capability was added to two portable soil strength measuring devices; (a) A TDT (Time Domain Transmittivity)-equipped soil cone penetrometer was used to evaluate seasonal soil strengthwater content relationships. In conventional tillage systems the relationships are dynamic and achieve the more stable no-tillage relationships only relatively late in each growing season; (b) A small TDR transmission line was added to a modified sheargraph that allowed shear strength and water content to be measured simultaneously on the same sample. In addition, the conventional graphing procedure for data acquisition was converted to datalogging using strain gauges. Data acquisition rate was improved by more than a factor of three with improved data quality. (iii) How do drought tolerant plants maintain leaf water content? Non-destructive measurement of TDR water content using a flat serpentine triple wire transmission line replaces more lengthy procedures of measuring relative water content. Two challenges remain: drought-stressed leaves alter salt content, changing electrical conductivity, and drought induced changes in leaf morphology affect TDR measurements. (iv) Remote radar signals are reflected from within the first 2 cm of soil. Appropriate calibration of radar imaging for soil water content can be achieved by a parallel pair of blades separated by 8 cm, reaching 1.7 cm into soil and forming a 20 cm TDR transmission line. The correlation between apparent relative permittivity from TDR and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter coefficient was 0.57 from an airborne flyover. These five examples highlight the diversity in the application of TDR in soil and plant research.