Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatty acids as haptens: exploring the limits of antigenicity

Fatty acids (FAs) are relatively small, hydrophobic and highly mobile molecular structures with vital biological functions and a ubiquitous distribution. Surprisingly, however, they can be rendered immunogenic. We have synthesised a novel immunogen in which dicarboxylic linoleic acid was conjugated to a carrier protein. Dicarboxylic fatty acids (DCA) differ from their normal counterparts only by their possession of a carboxyl group at each end of the molecule. When conjugated to proteins as haptens, they are, therefore, presented to the immune system with a free carboxyl group at the distal end, instead of a methyl group. Polyclonal IgG antibodies raised in response to this unique immunogen could bind not only conjugated hapten with high affinity, but also the equivalent free FA in mono and dicarboxylic form. Similar conjugates constructed from normal FAs produced much weaker antibody responses and could scarcely be considered antigenic at all. The cross-reactivities of the anti-DCA antibodies with FA variants differing in the number, position and configuration of their double bonds showed that the antibody paratope (binding site) was structured to accommodate the hapten in a way that depended on the precise shape of the acyl chain. We suggest that FAs become much more effective as B-cell epitopes when presented with their hydrophilic carboxyl group exposed on the surface of immunogenic conjugates. This type of epitope is determined by the particular double bond pattern of the unsaturated acyl chain, as well as the polar head group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

US hegemony and Southeast Asia - The impact of, and limits to, US power and influence

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent war on terror, have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.

Pioglitazone increases renal tubular cell albumin uptake but limits proinflammatory and fibrotic responses

Background. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma) agonists. which are known to be critical factors in lipid metabolism, have also been reported to reduce proteinuria. The mechanism and its relevance to progressive nephropathy have not been determined. The aims of this study were to assess the direct effects of a PPARgamma agonist on tubular cell albumin uptake, proinflammatory and profibrotic markers of renal pathology, using an opossum kidney model of proximal tubular cells. Methods. Cells were exposed to pioglitazone (10 mumol/L) in the presence and absence of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) 100 mug/mL +/- exposure to albumin 1 mg/mL. Results were expressed relative to control (5 mmol/L glucose) conditions. Results. Pioglitazone caused a dose-dependent increase in tubular cell albumin uptake (P < 0.0001). Despite the increase in albumin reabsorption, no concurrent increase in inflammatory or profibrotic markers were observed. Exposure to LDL increased monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) (P < 0.05) and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) (P < 0.05) production. which were reversed in the presence of pioglitazone. LDL induced increases in MCP-1 and TGF-β1 were independent of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) transcriptional activity. In contrast. tubular exposure to albumin increased tubular protein uptake, in parallel with an increase in MCP-1 (P = 0.05): TGF-β1 (P < 0.02) and NF-kappaB transcriptional activity (P < 0.05). which were unaffected by concurrent exposure to pioglitazone. Conclusion. These findings suggest that dyslipidemia potentiates renal pathology through mechanisms that may be modified PPARγ activation independent of NF-κB transcriptional activitv. In contrast, tubular exposure to protein induces renal damage through NF-κB-dependent mechanisms that are Unaffected by PPARγ activation.

Neuromuscular adaptation during skill acquisition on a two degree-of-freedom target-acquisition task: Isometric torque production

In this study we attempted to identify the principles that govern the changes in neural control that occur during repeated performance of a multiarticular coordination task. Eight participants produced isometric flexion/extension and pronation/supination torques at the radiohumeral joint, either in isolation (e.g., flexion) or in combination (e.g., flexion - supination), to acquire targets presented by a visual display. A cursor superimposed on the display provided feedback of the applied torques. During pre- and postpractice tests, the participants acquired targets in eight directions located either 3.6 cm (20% maximal voluntary contraction [MVC]) or 7.2 cm (40% MVC) from a neutral cursor position. On each of five consecutive days of practice the participants acquired targets located 5.4 cm (30% MVC) from the neutral position. EMG was recorded from eight muscles contributing to torque production about the radiohumeral joint during the pre- and posttests. Target-acquisition time decreased significantly with practice in most target directions and at both target torque levels. These performance improvements were primarily associated with increases in the peak rate of torque development after practice. At a muscular level, these changes were brought about by increases in the rates of recruitment of all agonist muscles. The spatiotemporal organization of muscle synergies was not significantly altered after practice. The observed adaptations appear to lead to performances that are generalizable to actions that require both greater and smaller joint torques than that practiced, and may be successfully recalled after a substantial period without practice. These results suggest that tasks in which performance is improved by increasing the rate of muscle activation, and thus the rate of joint torque development, may benefit in terms of the extent to which acquired levels of performance are maintained over time.

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

Muscle synergies at the elbow in static and oscillating isometric torque tasks with dual degrees of freedom

This study's aim was to identify the effect of oscillation of torques in isometric tasks under identical mechanical conditions on the muscle synergies used. It was hypothesized that bi-functional muscles would play a lesser role in torque oscillation, because they would also generate an undesired oscillation. Thus, changes in muscle synergies were expected as a consequence of oscillation in torque generation. The effect of the trajectory of torque generation was investigated in dual-degrees-of-freedom submaximal isometric oscillation torque tasks at the elbow. The torques were flexion-extension and supination-pronation. Oscillation torques were compared with static torque generations at four torque positions during oscillation. Muscle activity was determined with surface electromyography. Compared with the static torque tasks, the oscillation tasks showed an overall increased muscle activity. The oscillation tasks, however, showed similar activity patterns and muscle synergies compared to the static composite tasks. It was found that the motor system is well able to control different orthogonal combinations of slow torque oscillations and constant torques by employing a single oscillating muscle synergy.

Linking physiological processes with mangrove forest structure: phosphorus deficiency limits canopy development, hydraulic conductivity and photosynthetic carbon gain in dwarf Rhizophora mangle

Spatial gradients in mangrove tree height in barrier islands of Belize are associated with nutrient deficiency and sustained flooding in the absence of a salinity gradient. While nutrient deficiency is likely to affect many parameters, here we show that addition of phosphorus (P) to dwarf mangroves stimulated increases in diameters of xylem vessels, area of conductive xylem tissue and leaf area index (LAI) of the canopy. These changes in structure were consistent with related changes in function, as addition of P also increased hydraulic conductivity (K-s), stomatal conductance and photosynthetic assimilation rates to the same levels measured in taller trees fringing the seaward margin of the mangrove. Increased xylem vessel size and corresponding enhancements in stern hydraulic conductivity in P fertilized dwarf trees came at the cost of enhanced midday loss of hydraulic conductivity and was associated with decreased assimilation rates in the afternoon. Analysis of trait plasticity identifies hydraulic properties of trees as more plastic than those of leaf structural and physiological characteristics, implying that hydraulic properties are key in controlling growth in mangroves. Alleviation of P deficiency, which released trees from hydraulic limitations, reduced the structural and functional distinctions between dwarf and taller fringing tree forms of Rhizophora mangle.

Neuromuscular-skeletal constraints on the acquisition of skill in a discrete torque production task

The organisation of the human neuromuscular-skeletal system allows an extremely wide variety of actions to be performed, often with great dexterity. Adaptations associated with skill acquisition occur at all levels of the neuromuscular-skeletal system although all neural adaptations are inevitably constrained by the organisation of the actuating apparatus (muscles and bones). We quantified the extent to which skill acquisition in an isometric task set is influenced by the mechanical properties of the muscles used to produce the required actions. Initial performance was greatly dependent upon the specific combination of torques required in each variant of the experimental task. Five consecutive days of practice improved the performance to a similar degree across eight actions despite differences in the torques required about the elbow and forearm. The proportional improvement in performance was also similar when the actions were performed at either 20 or 40% of participants' maximum voluntary torque capacity. The skill acquired during practice was successfully extrapolated to variants of the task requiring more torque than that required during practice. We conclude that while the extent to which skill can be acquired in isometric actions is independent of the specific combination of joint torques required for target acquisition, the nature of the kinetic adaptations leading to the performance improvement in isometric actions is influenced by the neural and mechanical properties of the actuating muscles.

Suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 limits protection of leukemia inhibitory factor receptor signaling against central demyelination

Enhancement of oligodendrocyte survival through activation of leukemia inhibitory factor receptor (LIFR) signaling is a candidate therapeutic strategy for demyelinating disease. However, in other cell types, LIFR signaling is under tight negative regulation by the intracellular protein suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3). We, therefore, postulated that deletion of the SOCS3 gene in oligodendrocytes would promote the beneficial effects of LIFR signaling in limiting demyelination. By studying wild-type and LIF-knockout mice, we established that SOCS3 expression by oligodendrocytes was induced by the demyelinative insult, that this induction depended on LIF, and that enclogenously produced LIF was likely to be a key determinant of the CNS response to oligodendrocyte loss. Compared with wild-type controls, oligo-dendrocyte-specific SOCS3 conditional-knockout mice displayed enhanced c-fos activation and exogenous LIF-induced phosphorylation of signal transducer and activator of transcription 3. Moreover, these SOCS3-deficient mice were protected against cupri-zone-induced oligodendrocyte loss relative to wild-type animals. These results indicate that modulation of SOCS3 expression could facilitate the endogenous response to CNS injury.

The temporal and spatial limits of compensation for fixational eye movements

High-fidelity eye tracking is combined with a perceptual grouping task to provide insight into the likely mechanisms underlying the compensation of retinal image motion caused by movement of the eyes. The experiments describe the covert detection of minute temporal and spatial offsets incorporated into a test stimulus. Analysis of eye motion on individual trials indicates that the temporal offset sensitivity is actually due to motion of the eye inducing artificial spatial offsets in the briefly presented stimuli. The results have strong implications for two popular models of compensation for fixational eye movements, namely efference copy and image-based models. If an efference copy model is assumed, the results place constraints on the spatial accuracy and source of compensation. If an image-based model is assumed then limitations are placed on the integration time window over which motion estimates are calculated. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.