Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Temporal variation in habitat use by nekton in a subtropical estuarine system

Utilisation by fish of different estuarine habitats is known to vary at many different temporal scales, however no study to date has examined how utilisation varies at all the relevant times scales simultaneously. Here, we compare the utilisation by fish of sandy, intertidal foreshore habitats in a subtropical estuary at four temporal scales: between major spawning periods (spring/ summer and winter), among months within spawning periods, between the full and new moon each month, and between night and day within those lunar phases. Comparisons of assemblage composition, abundance of individuals and of fish in seven different,ecological guilds' were used to identify the temporal scales at which fish varied their use of unvegetated sandy habitats in the lower Noosa Estuary, Queensland, Australia. Fish assemblages were sampled with a seine net at three different regions. The most numerically dominant species caught were southern herring (Herklotsichthys castelnaui: Clupeidae), sand whiting (Sillago ciliata: Sillaginidae), weeping toadfish (Torquigener pleurogramma: Tetraodomidae), and silver biddy (Gerres subfasciatus: Gerreidae). Considerable variation at a range of temporal scales from short term (day versus night) to longer term (spawning periods) was detected for all but one of the variables examined. The clearest patterns were observed for diurnal effects, where generally abundance was greater at night than during the day. There were also strong lunar effects, although there were no consistent patterns between full moon and new moon periods. Significant differences among months within spawning periods were more common than differences between the actual spawning periods. The results clearly indicate that utilisation of sandy, unvegetated estuarine habitats is very dynamic and highly variable in space and time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.