Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation: A review of the salient issues

Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1) identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2) explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.

Plaid motion rivalry: Correlates with binocular rivalry and positive mood state

Recently Hupe and Rubin (2003, Vision Research 43 531 - 548) re-introduced the plaid as a form of perceptual rivalry by using two sets of drifting gratings behind a circular aperture to produce quasi-regular perceptual alternations between a coherent moving plaid of diamond-shaped intersections and the two sets of component 'sliding' gratings. We call this phenomenon plaid motion rivalry (PMR), and have compared its temporal dynamics with those of binocular rivalry in a sample of subjects covering a wide range of perceptual alternation rates. In support of the proposal that all rivalries may be mediated by a common switching mechanism, we found a high correlation between alternation rates induced by PMR and binocular rivalry. In keeping with a link discovered between the phase of rivalry and mood, we also found a link between PMR and an individual's mood state that is consistent with suggestions that each opposing phase of rivalry is associated with one or the other hemisphere, with the 'diamonds' phase of PMR linked with the 'positive' left hemisphere.

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Dynamics of Gray Matter Loss in Alzheimer's Disease

We detected and mapped a dynamically spreading wave of gray matter loss in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The loss pattern was visualized in four dimensions as it spread over time from temporal and limbic cortices into frontal and occipital brain regions, sparing sensorimotor cortices. The shifting deficits were asymmetric (left hemisphere >right hemisphere) and correlated with progressively declining cognitive status ( p 15% loss). The maps distinguished different phases of AD and differentiated AD from normal aging. Local gray matter loss rates (5.3 +/- 2.3% per year in AD v 0.9 +/- 0.9% per year in controls) were faster in the left hemisphere ( p < 0.029) than the right. Transient barriers to disease progression appeared at limbic/frontal boundaries. This degenerative sequence, observed in vivo as it developed, provides the first quantitative, dynamic visualization of cortical atrophic rates in normal elderly populations and in those with dementia.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Intercepting a moving target: effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude

The effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude on performance of an interceptive aiming task were examined. Participants were required to strike a moving target object with a 'bat' by moving the bat along a straight path (constrained by a linear slide) perpendicular to the path of the target. Temporal precision constraints were defined in terms of the time period (or window) within which contact with the target was possible. Three time windows were used (approx. 35, 50 and 65 ms) and these were achieved either by manipulating the size of the bat (experiment 1a), the size of the target (experiment 1b) or the speed of the target (experiment 2). In all experiments, movement time (MT) increased in proportion to movement amplitude but was only affected by differences in the temporal precision constraint if this was achieved by variation in the target's speed. In this case the MT was approximately inversely proportional to target speed. Peak movement speed was affected by temporal accuracy constraints in all three experiments: participants reached higher speeds when the temporal precision required was greater. These results are discussed with reference to the speed-accuracy trade-off observed for temporally constrained aiming movements. It is suggested that the MT and speed of interceptive aiming movements may be understood as responses to the spatiotemporal constraints of the task.

Effects of temporal association on recognition memory

The influence of temporal association on the representation and recognition of objects was investigated. Observers were shown sequences of novel faces in which the identity of the face changed as the head rotated. As a result, observers showed a tendency to treat the views as if they were of the same person. Additional experiments revealed that this was only true if the training sequences depicted head rotations rather than jumbled views; in other words, the sequence had to be spatially as well as temporally smooth. Results suggest that we are continuously associating views of objects to support later recognition, and that we do so not only on the basis of the physical similarity, but also the correlated appearance in time of the objects.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.