Conditional risk, return and contagion in the banking sector in Asia

This paper investigates risk and return in the banking sector in three Asian markets of Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The study focuses on the risk-return relation in a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects. The factor approach is adopted to incorporate intra-industry contagion and an analysis of spillovers between large banks and small banks. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations.

Multidisciplinary strategies for the management of heart failure patients at high risk for admission - A systematic review of randomized trials

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to determine whether multidisciplinary strategies improve outcomes for heart failure (HF) patients. BACKGROUND Because the prognosis of HF remains poor despite pharmacotherapy, there is increasing interest in alternative models of care delivery for these patients. METHODS Randomized trials of multidisciplinary management programs in HF were identified by searching electronic databases and bibliographies and via contact with experts. RESULTS Twenty-nine trials (5,039 patients) were identified but were not pooled, because of considerable heterogeneity. A priori, we divided the interventions into homogeneous groups that were suitable for pooling. Strategies that incorporated follow-up by a specialized multidisciplinary team (either in a clinic or a non-clinic setting) reduced mortality (risk ratio [RR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59 to 0.96), HF hospitalizations (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.87), and all-cause hospitalizations (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.92). Programs that focused on enhancing patient self-care activities reduced HF hospitalizations (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.83) and all-cause hospitalizations (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.93) but had no effect on mortality (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.94). Strategies that employed telephone contact and advised patients to attend their primary care physician in the event of deterioration reduced HF hospitalizations (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.99) but not mortality (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.29) or all-cause hospitalizations (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.20). In 15 of 18 trials that evaluated cost, multidisciplinary strategies were cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS Multidisciplinary strategies for the management of patients with HF reduce HF hospitalizations. Those programs that involve specialized follow-up by a multidisciplinary team also reduce mortality and all-cause hospitalizations. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Injury and risk-taking behavior - a systematic review

There is a substantial body of work in the scientific literature discussing the role of risk-taking behavior in the causation of injury. Despite the quantity of diverse writings on the subject most is in the form of theoretical commentaries. This review was conducted to critically assess the empirical evidence supporting the association between injury and risk-taking behavior. The review found six case-control studies and one retrospective cohort study, which met all the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis was not possible due to the diversity of the independent and outcome variables in each of the studies reviewed. Overall the review found that risk-taking behavior, however it is measured, is associated with an increased chance of sustaining an injury except in the case of high skilled, risk-taking sports where the effect may be in the other direction. Drawing specific conclusions from the research presented in this review is difficult without an agreed conceptual framework for examining risk-taking behavior and injury. Considerable work needs to be done to provide a convincing evidence base on which to build public health interventions around risk behavior. However, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that effort in this area may be beneficial for the health of the community. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Risk of serious NSAID-related gastrointestinal events during long-term exposure: a systematic review

Objective: Exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated wit increased risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) events compared with non-exposure. We investigated whether that risk is sustained over time. Data sources: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (to 2002); MEDLINE, EMBASE, Derwent Drug File and Current Contents (1999-2002); manual searching of reviews (1999-2002). Study selection: From 479 search results reviewed and 221 articles retrieved, seven studies of patients exposed to prescription non-selective NSAIDs for more than 6 months and reporting time-dependent serious GI event rates were selected for quantitative data synthesis. These were stratified into two groups by study design. Data extraction: Incidence of GI events and number of patients at specific time points were extracted. Data synthesis: Meta-regression analyses were performed. Change in risk was evaluated by testing whether the slope of the regression line declined over time. Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided evaluable data from five NSAID arms (aspirin, naproxen, two ibuprofen arms, and diclofenac). When the RCT data were combined, a small significant decline in annualised risk was seen: -0.005% (95% Cl, -0.008% to -0.001%) per month. Sensitivity analyses were conducted because there was disparity within the RCT data. The pooled estimate from three cohort studies showed no significant decline in annualised risk over periods up to 2 years: -0.003% (95% Cl, -0.008% to 0.003%) per month. Conclusions: Small decreases in risk over time were observed; these were of negligible clinical importance. For patients who need long-term (> 6 months) treatment, precautionary measures should be considered to reduce the net probability of serious GI events over the anticipated treatment duration. The effect of intermittent versus regular daily therapy on long-term risk needs further investigation.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of Northern Hemisphere season of birth studies in schizophrenia

Based on the epidemiological finding that individuals with schizophrenia tend to be born in winter/spring when compared to the general population, we examined (1) the strength and timing of this effect in Northern Hemisphere sites, and (2) the correlation between the season of birth effect size and latitude. Studies were located via electronic data sources, published citations, and letters to authors. Inclusion criteria were that studies specify the diagnostic criteria used, that studies specify the counts of schizophrenia and general population births for each month, and that subjects and the general population be drawn from the same birth years and catchment area. We extracted data from eight studies based on 126,196 patients with schizophrenia and 86,605,807 general population births and drawn from 27 Northern Hemisphere sites. Comparing winter/spring versus summer/autumn births, we found a significant excess for winter/spring births (pooled odds ratio = 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.08; population attributable risk = 3.3%). There was a small but significant positive correlation between the odds ratios for the season of birth comparison and latitude (r = 0.271, p < 0.005). Furthermore, the shape of the seasonality in schizophrenia births varied by latitude band. These variations may encourage researchers to generate candidate seasonally fluctuating exposures.

Exercise training for patients with heart failure: A systematic review of factors that improve mortality and morbidity

PURPOSE: To determine the efficacy of exercise training and its effects on outcomes in patients with heart failure. METHODS: MEDLINE, Medscape, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry were searched for trials of exercise training in heart failure patients. Data relating to training protocol, exercise capacity, and outcome measures were extracted and reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 81 studies were identified: 30 randomized controlled trials, five nonrandomized controlled trials, nine randomized crossover trials, and 37 longitudinal cohort studies. Exercise training was performed in 2387 patients. The average increment in peak oxygen consumption was 17% in 57 studies that measured oxygen consumption directly, 17% in 40 studies of aerobic training, 9% in three studies that only used strength training, 15% in 13 studies of combined aerobic and strength training, and 16% in the one study on inspiratory training. There were no reports of deaths that were directly related to exercise during more than 60,000 patient-hours of exercise training. During the training and follow-up periods of the randomized controlled trials, there were 56 combined (deaths or adverse events) events in the exercise groups and 75 combined events in the control groups (odds ratio [OR] = 0.98; 95% confidence interval [Cl]: 0.61 to 1.32; P = 0.60). During this same period, 26 exercising and 41 nonexercising subjects died (OR = 0.71; 95% CT: 0.37 to 1.02; P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Exercise training is safe and effective in patients with heart failure. The risk of adverse events may be reduced, but further studies are required to determine whether there is any mortality benefit. (C) 2004 by Excerpta Medica Inc.

Preliminary findings of a systematic review and expert opinion workshop on Biosecurity on cattle farms in the UK

In this paper risk factors for the introduction of IBR, BVD, Salmonella and Johne's disease to cattle farms are reported. Two sources of information were used: literature was searched systematically and an expert opinion workshop was held. The findings from both indicate that direct contact between cattle is an important risk factor. Indirect and occasional contact is considered of less importance. Therefore, in the development of biosecurity programmes for cattle farms emphasis should be put on preventing direct contact with cattle from outside the herd.

Is Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG effective in preventing the onset of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea: A systematic review

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG in the prevention of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea. Data Sources: A computer-based search of MED-LINE, CINAHL, AMED, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was conducted. A hand-search of the bibliographies of relevant papers and previous meta-analyses was undertaken. Review Methods: Trials were included in the review if they compared the effects of L. rhamnosus GG and placebo and listed diarrhoea as a primary end-point. Studies were excluded if they were not placebo-controlled or utilised other probiotic strains. Results:Six trials were found that met all eligibility requirements. Significant statistical heterogeneity of the trials precluded meta-analysis. Four of the six trials found a significant reduction in the risk of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea with co-administration of Lactobacillus GG. One of the trials found a reduced number of days with antibiotic-induced diarrhoea with Lactobacillus GG administration, whilst the final trial found no benefit of Lactobacillus GG supplementation. Conclusion: Additional research is needed to further clarify the effectiveness of Lactobacillus GG in the prevention of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Community-based programs to promote care seat restraints in children 0-16 years - A systematic review

Study Objective: Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing injury due to inadequate car seat restraint use in children 0-16 years of age. Methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study: target population was children aged 0-16 years of age; outcome measure was either injury rates due to motor vehicle crashes or observed changes in child restraint use; and use of community control or historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies. Results: This review found eight studies, that met all the inclusion criteria. In the studies that measured injury outcomes, significant reductions in risk of motor vehicle occupant injury (33-55%) were reported in the study communities. For those studies reporting observed car seat restraint use the community-based programs were successful in increasing toddler restraint use in 1-5 year aged children by up to 11%; child booster seat use in 4-8 year aged children by up to 13%; rear restraint use in children aged 0-15 years by 8%; a 50% increase in restraint use in pre-school aged children in a high-risk community; and a 44% increase in children aged 5-11 years. Conclusion: While this review highlights that there is some evidence to support the effectiveness of community-based programs to promote car restraint use and/or motor vehicle occupant injury, limitations in the evaluation methodologies of the studies requires the results to be interpreted with caution. There is clearly a need for further high quality program evaluation research to develop an evidence base. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The consistency of extinction risk classification protocols

Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores arc, seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes That are inherently uncertain, Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they arc, exact and hence without operator error We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three Protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50-70%) and lowest risk categories (20-40%), but There was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories, Furthermore, the correspondence between The three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out 4), a single assessor Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.

Kidney and related chronic disease profiles and risk factors in three remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Morbidities and deaths from noncommunicable chronic diseases are greatly increased in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, but little is known of the underlying community-based health profiles. We describe chronic-disease profiles and their risk factors in 3 remote communities in the Northern Territory. Consenting adults (18+ years of age) in 3 communities participated in a brief history and examination between 2000 and mid-2003 as part of a systematic program to improve chronic-disease awareness and management. Participation was 67%,128%, and 62% in communities A, B, and C, respectively with a total of 1070 people examined. Current smokers included 41% of females and 72% of males. Most men were current drinkers, but most women were not. Parameters of body weight differed markedly by community, with mean body mass index (BMC) varying from 21.4 to 27.9 kg/m(2). Rates of chronic diseases were excessive but differed markedly; an almost threefold difference in the likelihood of any morbidity existed between communities A and C. Rates increased with age, but the greatest numbers of people with morbidities were in the middle-aged group. Most people had multiple morbidities with tremendous overlap. Hypertension and kidney disease appear to be early manifestations of the integrated chronic-disease syndrome, while diabetes is a late manifestation or complication. Substantial numbers of new cases of disease were identified by testing, and blood pressure improved in treated people with hypertension. Wide variations occur in body habitus, risk factors, and chronic-disease rates among communities, but an overwhelming need for effective smoking interventions exists in all. Systematic screening is useful in identifying high-risk individuals, most at early treatable stages there. Findings are very important for estimating current treatment needs, future burdens of disease, and for needs-based health services planning. Resources required will vary according to the burden of disease. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: Results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort

Background Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Methods Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (κw). Results Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (≥ 5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of < 1%, while 13% reported having a risk ≥ 5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was < 1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a ≥ 5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (κw = 0.27). Conclusion Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.