Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Prioritizing global conservation efforts

One of the most pressing issues facing the global conservation community is how to distribute limited resources between regions identified as priorities for biodiversity conservation(1-3). Approaches such as biodiversity hotspots(4), endemic bird areas(5) and ecoregions(6) are used by international organizations to prioritize conservation efforts globally(7). Although identifying priority regions is an important first step in solving this problem, it does not indicate how limited resources should be allocated between regions. Here we formulate how to allocate optimally conservation resources between regions identified as priorities for conservation - the 'conservation resource allocation problem'. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find the optimal schedule of resource allocation for small problems but is intractable for large problems owing to the curse of dimensionality(8). We identify two easy- to- use and easy- to- interpret heuristics that closely approximate the optimal solution. We also show the importance of both correctly formulating the problem and using information on how investment returns change through time. Our conservation resource allocation approach can be applied at any spatial scale. We demonstrate the approach with an example of optimal resource allocation among five priority regions in Wallacea and Sundaland, the transition zone between Asia and Australasia.

A genetic algorithm based method for deregulated electricity market dispatch

In a deregulated electricity market, optimizing dispatch capacity and transmission capacity are among the core concerns of market operators. Many market operators have capitalized on linear programming (LP) based methods to perform market dispatch operation in order to explore the computational efficiency of LP. In this paper, the search capability of genetic algorithms (GAs) is utilized to solve the market dispatch problem. The GA model is able to solve pool based capacity dispatch, while optimizing the interconnector transmission capacity. Case studies and corresponding analyses are performed to demonstrate the efficiency of the GA model.

Stochastic modelling of the invasion process of nematodes in fly larvae

Stochastic models based on Markov birth processes are constructed to describe the process of invasion of a fly larva by entomopathogenic nematodes. Various forms for the birth (invasion) rates are proposed. These models are then fitted to data sets describing the observed numbers of nematodes that have invaded a fly larval after a fixed period of time. Non-linear birthrates are required to achieve good fits to these data, with their precise form leading to different patterns of invasion being identified for three populations of nematodes considered. One of these (Nemasys) showed the greatest propensity for invasion. This form of modelling may be useful more generally for analysing data that show variation which is different from that expected from a binomial distribution.

The programming language python in earth system simulations

-scale vary from a planetary scale and million years for convection problems to 100km and 10 years for fault systems simulations. Various techniques are in use to deal with the time dependency (e.g. Crank-Nicholson), with the non-linearity (e.g. Newton-Raphson) and weakly coupled equations (e.g. non-linear Gauss-Seidel). Besides these high-level solution algorithms discretization methods (e.g. finite element method (FEM), boundary element method (BEM)) are used to deal with spatial derivatives. Typically, large-scale, three dimensional meshes are required to resolve geometrical complexity (e.g. in the case of fault systems) or features in the solution (e.g. in mantel convection simulations). The modelling environment escript allows the rapid implementation of new physics as required for the development of simulation codes in earth sciences. Its main object is to provide a programming language, where the user can define new models and rapidly develop high-level solution algorithms. The current implementation is linked with the finite element package finley as a PDE solver. However, the design is open and other discretization technologies such as finite differences and boundary element methods could be included. escript is implemented as an extension of the interactive programming environment python (see www.python.org). Key concepts introduced are Data objects, which are holding values on nodes or elements of the finite element mesh, and linearPDE objects, which are defining linear partial differential equations to be solved by the underlying discretization technology. In this paper we will show the basic concepts of escript and will show how escript is used to implement a simulation code for interacting fault systems. We will show some results of large-scale, parallel simulations on an SGI Altix system. Acknowledgements: Project work is supported by Australian Commonwealth Government through the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, Queensland State Government Smart State Research Facility Fund, The University of Queensland and SGI.