Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Neuromuscular-skeletal constraints upon the dynamics of unimanual and bimanual coordination

In the first of three experiments, 11 participants generated pronation and supination movements of the forearm, in time with an auditory metronome. The metronome frequency was increased in eight steps (0.25 Hz) from a base frequency of 1.75 Hz. On alternating trials, participants were required to coordinate either maximum pronation or maximum supination with each beat of the metronome. In each block of trials, the axis of rotation was either coincident with the long axis of the forearm, above this axis, or below this axis. The stability of the pronate-on-the-beat pattern, as indexed by the number of pattern changes, and the time of onset of pattern change, was greatest when the axis of rotation of the movement was below the long axis of the forearm. In contrast, the stability of the supinate-on-the-beat pattern was greatest when the axis of rotation of the movement was above the long axis of the forearm. In a second experiment, we examined how changes in the position of the axis of rotation alter the activation patterns of muscles that contribute to pronation and supination of the forearm. Variations in the relative dominance of the pronation and supination phases of the movement cycle across conditions were accounted for primarily by changes in the activation profile of flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and extensor carpi radialis longus (ECR). In the Final experiment we examined how these constraints impact upon the stability of bimanual coordination. Thirty-two participants were assigned at random to one of four conditions, each of which combined an axis of rotation configuration (bottom or top) for each limb. The participants generated both inphase (both limbs pronating simultaneously, and supinating simultaneously) and antiphase (left limb pronating and right limb supinating simultaneously, and vice versa) patterns of coordination. When the position of the axis of rotation was equivalent for the left and the right limb, transitions from antiphase to inphase patterns of coordination were Frequently observed. In marked contrast, when the position of the axis of rotation for the left and right limb was contradistinct, transitions From inphase to antiphase patterns of coordination occurred. The results demonstrated that when movements are performed in an appropriate mechanical context, inphase patterns of coordination are less stable than antiphase patterns.

Estimating economic relationships subject to firm- and time-varying equality and inequality constraints

Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Constraints on the spatiotemporal accuracy of interceptive action: effects of target size on hitting a moving object

Results of two experiments are reported that examined how people respond to rectangular targets of different sizes in simple hitting tasks. If a target moves in a straight line and a person is constrained to move along a linear track oriented perpendicular to the targetrsquos motion, then the length of the target along its direction of motion constrains the temporal accuracy and precision required to make the interception. The dimensions of the target perpendicular to its direction of motion place no constraints on performance in such a task. In contrast, if the person is not constrained to move along a straight track, the targetrsquos dimensions may constrain the spatial as well as the temporal accuracy and precision. The experiments reported here examined how people responded to targets of different vertical extent (height): the task was to strike targets that moved along a straight, horizontal path. In experiment 1 participants were constrained to move along a horizontal linear track to strike targets and so target height did not constrain performance. Target height, length and speed were co-varied. Movement time (MT) was unaffected by target height but was systematically affected by length (briefer movements to smaller targets) and speed (briefer movements to faster targets). Peak movement speed (Vmax) was influenced by all three independent variables: participants struck shorter, narrower and faster targets harder. In experiment 2, participants were constrained to move in a vertical plane normal to the targetrsquos direction of motion. In this task target height constrains the spatial accuracy required to contact the target. Three groups of eight participants struck targets of different height but of constant length and speed, hence constant temporal accuracy demand (different for each group, one group struck stationary targets = no temporal accuracy demand). On average, participants showed little or no systematic response to changes in spatial accuracy demand on any dependent measure (MT, Vmax, spatial variable error). The results are interpreted in relation to previous results on movements aimed at stationary targets in the absence of visual feedback.

Intercepting a moving target: effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude

The effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude on performance of an interceptive aiming task were examined. Participants were required to strike a moving target object with a 'bat' by moving the bat along a straight path (constrained by a linear slide) perpendicular to the path of the target. Temporal precision constraints were defined in terms of the time period (or window) within which contact with the target was possible. Three time windows were used (approx. 35, 50 and 65 ms) and these were achieved either by manipulating the size of the bat (experiment 1a), the size of the target (experiment 1b) or the speed of the target (experiment 2). In all experiments, movement time (MT) increased in proportion to movement amplitude but was only affected by differences in the temporal precision constraint if this was achieved by variation in the target's speed. In this case the MT was approximately inversely proportional to target speed. Peak movement speed was affected by temporal accuracy constraints in all three experiments: participants reached higher speeds when the temporal precision required was greater. These results are discussed with reference to the speed-accuracy trade-off observed for temporally constrained aiming movements. It is suggested that the MT and speed of interceptive aiming movements may be understood as responses to the spatiotemporal constraints of the task.

Quantum noise in optical fibers. I. Stochastic equations

We analyze the quantum dynamics of radiation propagating in a single-mode optical fiber with dispersion, nonlinearity, and Raman coupling to thermal phonons. We start from a fundamental Hamiltonian that includes the principal known nonlinear effects and quantum-noise sources, including linear gain and loss. Both Markovian and frequency-dependent, non-Markovian reservoirs are treated. This treatment allows quantum Langevin equations, which have a classical form except for additional quantum-noise terms, to be calculated. In practical calculations, it is more useful to transform to Wigner or 1P quasi-probability operator representations. These transformations result in stochastic equations that can be analyzed by use of perturbation theory or exact numerical techniques. The results have applications to fiber-optics communications, networking, and sensor technology.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.

Improved constraints on possible variation of physical constants from HI 21-cm and molecular QSO absorption lines

Quasar (QSO) absorption spectra provide an extremely useful probe of possible cosmological variation in various physical constants. Comparison of H i 21-cm absorption with corresponding molecular (rotational) absorption spectra allows us to constrain variation in , where α is the fine-structure constant and gp is the proton g-factor. We analyse spectra of two QSOs, PKS 1413+135 and TXS 0218+357, and derive values of at absorption redshifts of and 0.6847 by simultaneous fitting of the H i 21-cm and molecular lines. We find and respectively, indicating an insignificantly smaller y in the past. We compare our results with other constraints from the same two QSOs given recently by Drinkwater et al. and Carilli et al., and with our recent optical constraints, which indicated a smaller α at higher redshifts.

Canonical Bose gas simulations with stochastic gauges

A technique to simulate the grand canonical ensembles of interacting Bose gases is presented. Results are generated for many temperatures by averaging over energy-weighted stochastic paths, each corresponding to a solution of coupled Gross-Pitaevskii equations with phase noise. The stochastic gauge method used relies on an off-diagonal coherent-state expansion, thus taking into account all quantum correlations. As an example, the second-order spatial correlation function and momentum distribution for an interacting 1D Bose gas are calculated.

Cost functions and duality for stochastic technologies

Cost functions dual to stochastic production technologies are derived and their properties are discussed. These cost functions are shown to be consistent with expected-utility maximization without placing serious structural restrictions on the underlying technology.

Sedimentologic, petrographic, and sulfur isotope constraints on fine-grained pyrite formation at Mount Isa Mine and environs, Northwest Queensland, Australia

Fine-grained pyrite is the earliest generation of pyrite and the most abundant sulfide within the Urquhart Shale at Mount Isa, northwest Queensland. The pyrite is intimately interbanded with ore-grade Pb-Zn miner alization at the Mount Isa mine but is also abundant north and south of the mine at several stratigraphic horizons within the Urquhart Shale. Detailed sedimentologic, petrographic, and sulfur isotope studies of the Urquhart Shale, mostly north of the mine, reveal that the fine-grained pyrite (delta(34)S = -3.3 to +26.3 parts per thousand) formed by thermochemical sulfate reduction during diagenesis. The sulfate source was local sulfate evaporites, pseudo morphs of which are present throughout the Urquhart Shale (i.e., gypsum, anhydrite, and barite). Deep-burial diagenetic replacement of these evaporites resulted in sulfate-bearing ground waters which migrated parallel to bedding. Fine-grained pyrite formed where these fluids infiltrated and then interacted with carbon-rich laminated siltstones. Comparison of the sulfur isotope systematics of fine-grained pyrite and spatially associated base metal sulfides from the Mount Isa Pb-Zn and Cu orebodies indicates a common sulfur source of ultimately marine origin for all sulfide types. Different sulfur isotope ratio distributions for the various sulfides are the result of contrasting formation mechanisms and/or depositional conditions rather than differing sulfur sources. The sulfur isotope systematics of the base metal and associated iron sulfide generations are consistent with mineralization by reduced hydrothermal fluids, perhaps generated by bulk reduction of evaporite-sourced sulfate-bearing waters generated deeper in the Mount Isa Group, the sedimentary sequence which contains the Urquhart Shale. The available sulfur isotope data from the Mount Isa orebodies are consistent with either a chemically and thermally zoned, evolving Cu-Pb-Zn system, or discrete Cu and Pb-Zn mineralizing events linked by a common sulfur source.