Rates of spread of marine pathogens

Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spread through pilchard populations in Australia at a rate in excess of 10 000 km year(-1), and morbillivirus infections in seals and dolphins have spread at more than 3000 km year(-1). In terrestrial environments, only the epidemics of myxomatosis and calicivirus in Australian rabbits and West Nile Virus in birds in North America have rates of spread in excess of 1000 km year(-1). The rapid rates of spread of these epidemics has been attributed to flying insect vectors, but flying vectors have not been proposed for any marine pathogen. The most likely explanation for the relatively rapid spread of marine pathogens is the lack of barriers to dispersal in some parts of the ocean, and the potential for long-term survival of pathogens outside the host. These findings caution that pathogens may pose a particularly severe problem in the ocean. There is a need to develop epidemic models capable of generating these high rates of spread and obtain more estimates of disease spread rate.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

Lymphoproliferative disease of the ocular adnexa: A clinical and pathologic study with statistical analysis of 69 patients

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical features, treatment, and outcomes of a cohort of patients with ocular adnexal lymphoproliferative disease classified according to the World Health Organization modification of the Revised European-American Classification of Lymphoid neoplasms and to perform a robust statistical analysis of these data. Methods: Sixty-nine cases of ocular adnexal lymphoproliferative disease, seen in a tertiary referral center from 1992 to 2003, were included in the study. Lesions were classified by using the World Health Organization modification of the Revised European-American Classification of Lymphoid neoplasms classification. Outcome variables included disease-specific Survival, relapse-free survival, local control, and distant control. Results: Stage IV disease at presentation, aggressive lymphoma histology, the presence of prior or concurrent systemic lymphoma at presentation, and bilateral adnexal disease were significant predictors for reduced disease-specific survival, local control, and distant control. Multivariate analysis found that aggressive histology and bilateral adnexal disease had significantly reduced disease-specific Survival. Conclusions: The typical presentation of adnexal lymphoproliferative disease is with a painless mass, swelling, or proptosis; however, pain and inflammation occurred in 20% and 30% of patients, respectively. Stage at presentation, tumor histology, primary or secondary status, and whether the process was unilateral or bilateral were significant variables for disease outcome. In this study, distant spread of lymphoma was lower in patients who received greater than 20 Gy of orbital radiotherapy.

Adaptation is not required to explain the long-term response of axons to molecular gradients

It has been suggested that growth cones navigating through the developing nervous system might display adaptation, so that their response to gradient signals is conserved over wide variations in ligand concentration. Recently however, a new chemotaxis assay that allows the effect of gradient parameters on axonal trajectories to be finely varied has revealed a decline in gradient sensitivity on either side of an optimal concentration. We show that this behavior can be quantitatively reproduced with a computational model of axonal chemotaxis that does not employ explicit adaptation. Two crucial components of this model required to reproduce the observed sensitivity are spatial and temporal averaging. These can be interpreted as corresponding, respectively, to the spatial spread of signaling effects downstream from receptor binding, and to the finite time over which these signaling effects decay. For spatial averaging, the model predicts that an effective range of roughly one-third of the extent of the growth cone is optimal for detecting small gradient signals. For temporal decay, a timescale of about 3 minutes is required for the model to reproduce the experimentally observed sensitivity.

Synthesis, biological activity, and preliminary pharmacokinetic evaluation of analogues of a phosphosulfomannan angiogenesis inhibitor (PI-88)

The phosphosulfomannan 1 (PI-88) is a mixture of highly sulfated oligosaccharides that is currently undergoing clinical evaluation in cancer patients. As well as it's anticancer properties, 1 displays a number of other interesting biological activities. A series of analogues of 1 were synthesized with a single carbon (pentasaccharide) backbone to facilitate structural characterization and interpretation of biological results. In a fashion similar to 1, all compounds were able to inhibit heparanase and to bind tightly to the proangiogenic growth factors FGF-1, FGF-2, and VEGF. The compounds also inhibited the infection of cells and cell-to-cell spread of herpes simplex virus (HSV-1). Preliminary pharmacokinetic data indicated that the compounds displayed different pharmacokinetic behavior compared with 1. Of particular note was the n-octyl derivative, which was cleared 3 times less rapidly than 1 and may provide increased systemic exposure.

Assessment of statistical change criteria used to define significant change in neuropsychological test performance following cardiac surgery

Objective: This paper compares four techniques used to assess change in neuropsychological test scores before and after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), and includes a rationale for the classification of a patient as overall impaired. Methods: A total of 55 patients were tested before and after surgery on the MicroCog neuropsychological test battery. A matched control group underwent the same testing regime to generate test–retest reliabilities and practice effects. Two techniques designed to assess statistical change were used: the Reliable Change Index (RCI), modified for practice, and the Standardised Regression-based (SRB) technique. These were compared against two fixed cutoff techniques (standard deviation and 20% change methods). Results: The incidence of decline across test scores varied markedly depending on which technique was used to describe change. The SRB method identified more patients as declined on most measures. In comparison, the two fixed cutoff techniques displayed relatively reduced sensitivity in the detection of change. Conclusions: Overall change in an individual can be described provided the investigators choose a rational cutoff based on likely spread of scores due to chance. A cutoff value of ≥20% of test scores used provided acceptable probability based on the number of tests commonly encountered. Investigators must also choose a test battery that minimises shared variance among test scores.

Dispersal and seasonal distributions of black-faced impala in the Etosha National Park, Namibia

Factors affecting the seasonal distribution of the vulnerable black-faced impala at Etosha National Park, Namibia and the spread of the impala in the park since their translocation there in the 1970s were studied in the hot dry season of 2000 and the wet season of 2001 in order to provide information for future translocations of this antelope. In the 30 years since their release in the park, black-faced impala appear to have dispersed a maximum of 31.5 km from their initial release sites, effectively forming five subpopulations based on their five initial release sites. The mean minimum distance that impala had dispersed between water holes since their release was 7.11 +/- 1.47 km. Black-faced impala concentrated strongly around water holes; more than 50% were within 1 km of water holes in both seasons. Changes in population densities in different habitats may have resulted from seasonal movements of impala between adjacent habitats. The role of initial release sites in determining the distribution of threatened species such as the black-faced impala is discussed in light of its importance for future translocations.

Genetic uniformity of international isolates of Leifsonia xyli subsp xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane

An international collection of the sugarcane ratoon stunting disease pathogen, Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, was analysed to assess genetic diversity. DNA fingerprinting using BOX primers was performed on 105 isolates, comprising 65 Australian isolates and an additional 40 isolates from Indonesia (n = 8), Japan (n = 1), USA (n = 3), Brazil (n = 2), Mali (n = 2), Zimbabwe (n = 13), South Africa (n = 9) and Reunion (n = 2). Sixty-two of these isolates were also screened using ERIC primers. No variation was found among any of the isolates. The intergenic spacer (IGS) region of the ribosomal RNA genes from 54 isolates was screened for sequence variation using single-stranded conformational polymorphism (SSCP), but none was observed. Direct sequencing of the IGS from a subset of nine isolates, representing all of the countries sampled in this study, confirmed the results of the SSCP analysis. Likewise, no sequence variation was found in the 16S ribosomal RNA genes of the same subset. Four Colombian isolates from sugarcane, morphologically similar to L. xyli subsp. xyli, were putatively shown to be an undescribed Agrococcus species of unknown pathogenicity. The lack of genetic variation among L. xyli subsp. xyli isolates, independent of time of sampling, cultivar of isolation, or country of origin, suggests the worldwide spread of a single pathogenic clone, and further suggests that sugarcane cultivars resistant to ratoon stunting disease in one area should retain this property in other regions.

The provenance and technology of Near Eastern glass: Oxygen isotopes by laser fluorination as a complement to strontium

The ability to make rapid measurements on small samples using laser fluorination enhances the potential of oxygen isotopes in the investigation of early inorganic materials and technologies. delta O-18 and Sr-87/Sr-86 values are presented for glass from two primary production sites, four secondary production sites and a consumer site in the Near East, dating from Late Antiquity to the medieval period. delta O-18 is in general slightly less effective than Sr-87/Sr-86 in discriminating between sources, as the spread of measured values from a single source is somewhat broader relative to the available range. However, while Sr-87/Sr-86 is derived predominantly from either the lime-bearing fraction of the glass-making sand or the plant ash used as a source of alkali, delta O-18 derives mainly from the silica. Thus the two measurements can provide complementary information. A comparison of delta O-18 for late Roman - Islamic glasses made on the coast of Syria-Palestine with those of previously analysed glasses from Roman Europe suggests that the European glasses are relatively enriched in O-18. This appears to contradict the view that most Roman glass was made using Levantine sand and possible interpretations are discussed.

Comparative susceptibility of indigenous and improved pig breeds to Classical swine fever virus infection: Practical and epidemiological implications in a subsistence-based, developing country setting

This study investigated the comparative susceptibility of indigenous Moo Laat and improved Large White/Landrace pig breeds to infection with classical swine fever virus (CSFV) under controlled conditions in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). The Moo Laat (ML) and Large White/Landrace crossbreed (LWC) pigs were inoculated with a standard challenge strain designated Lao/Kham225 (infectivity titre of 10(2.75) TCID50/ml). The results demonstrated that both the native breed and an improved pig breed are fully susceptible to CSFV infection and the mortality rate is high. LWC pigs demonstrated lower (or shorter) survival times (50% survival time: 11 days), earlier and higher pyrexia and earlier onset of viraemia compared to ML pigs (50% survival time: 18 days). In the context of village-based pig production, the longer time from infection to death in native ML pigs means that incubating or early sick pigs are likely to be sold once an outbreak of CSF is recognized in a village. This increased longevity probably contributes to the maintenance and spread of disease in a population where generally the contact rate is low.

Validation and reliability of the Modified Elderly Mobility Scale

Objective: To establish concurrent validity, interrater and test-retest reliability of the Modified Elderly Mobility Scale (MEMS). Methods: Ninety elderly patients were scored on the MEMS. To establish concurrent validity, 75 patients MEMS scores were compared to Functional Independence Measure (FIM) scores using Spearman's correlation. Videotaped patient performances were used to establish interrater and test-retest reliability using percentage absolute agreement and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Results: The total MEMS score demonstrated a significant association with the motor (r = 0.725) and total FIM scores (r = 0.718). Absolute agreement for interrater reliability was greater than 93% for all test items, with 97 and 98% for the two new measures, respectively. Test-retest reliability demonstrated similar high levels of absolute agreement and had ICCs ranging from 0.870 to 1.0. Conclusions: The MEMS is a quick, valid and reliable test of motor function of elderly patients with a spread of functional levels.

Seropositivity to Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus in non-target mammals during periods of viral activity in a population of wild rabbits in New Zealand

As part of a longitudinal study of the epidemiology of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand, serum samples were obtained from trapped feral animals that may have consumed European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) carcasses (non-target species). During a 21-month period when RHDV infection was monitored in a defined wild rabbit population, 16 feral house cats (Felis catus), 11 stoats (Mustela erminea), four ferrets (Mustela furo) and 126 hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were incidentally captured in the rabbit traps. The proportions of samples that were seropositive to RHDV were 38% for cats, 18% for stoats, 25% for ferrets and 4% for hedgehogs. Seropositive non-target species were trapped in April 2000, in the absence of an overt epidemic of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in the rabbit population, but evidence of recent infection in rabbits was shown. Seropositive non-target species were found up to 2.5 months before and 1 month after this RHDV activity in wild rabbits was detected. Seropositive predators were also trapped on the site between 1 and 4.5 months after a dramatic RHD epidemic in February 2001. This study has shown that high antibody titres can be found in non-target species when there is no overt evidence of RHDV infection in the rabbit population, although a temporal relationship could not be assessed statistically owning to the small sample sizes. Predators and scavengers might be able to contribute to localised spread of RHDV through their movements.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Rapid detection of a chromosomally mediated penicillin resistance-associated ponA mutation in Neisseria gonorrhoeae using a real-time PCR assay

The recent emergence of a decreased susceptibility of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains to penicillin in New Caledonia has lead clinicians to operate a change in the treatment strategy. In addition, this important health issue has emphasized the need for a rapid means of detecting penicillin resistance in N. gonorrhoeae in order to select an effective treatment and limit the spread of resistant strains. In recent years, the use of fluorescence resonance energy transfer on the LightCycler has proven to be a valuable tool for the screening of mutations occurring in the genome of various microorganisms. In this study, we developed a real-time PCR assay coupled with a fluorometric hybridization probes system to detect a penicillin resistance-associated mutation on the N. gonorrhoeae ponA gene. Following an extensive evaluation involving 136 isolates, melting curve analysis correctly evidenced a 5 degrees C T-m shift in all N. gonorrhoeae strains possessing this mutation, as determined by conventional sequencing analysis. Moreover, the mutation profiles obtained with the real-time PCR showed good correlation with the pattern of penicillin susceptibility generated with classical antibiograms. Overall, our molecular assay allowed an accurate and reproducible determination of the susceptibility to penicillin corresponding to a mutation present in all chromosomally mediated resistant strains of N. gonorrhoeae.