Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous X-ray imaging of plant root growth and water uptake in thin-slab systems

Direct and simultaneous observation of root growth and plant water uptake is difficult because soils are opaque. X-ray imaging techniques such as projection radiography or Computer Tomography (CT) offer a partial alternative to such limitations. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between resolution, large field-of-view and 3-dimensionality: With the current state of the technology, it is possible to have any two. In this study, we used X-ray transmission through thin-slab systems to monitor transient saturation fields that develop around roots as plants grow. Although restricted to 2-dimensions, this approach offers a large field-of-view together with high spatial and dynamic resolutions. To illustrate the potential of this technology, we grew peas in 1 cm thick containers filled with soil and imaged them at regular intervals. The dynamics of both the root growth and the water content field that developed around the roots could be conveniently monitored. Compared to other techniques such as X-ray CT, our system is relatively inexpensive and easy to implement. It can potentially be applied to study many agronomic problems, such as issues related to the impact of soil constraints (physical, chemical or biological) on root development.

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they-did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.

Independent roles of calcium and voltage-dependent potassium currents in controlling spike frequency adaptation in lateral amygdala pyramidal neurons

The calcium-dependent afterhyperpolarization (AHP) that follows trains of action potentials is responsible for controlling action potential firing patterns in many neuronal cell types. We have previously shown that the slow AHP contributes to spike frequency adaptation in pyramidal neurons in the rat lateral amygdala. In addition, a dendritic voltage-gated potassium current mediated by Kv1.2-containing channels also suppresses action potential firing in these neurons. In this paper we show that this voltage-gated potassium current and the slow AHP act together to control spike frequency adaptation in lateral amygdala pyramidal neurons. The two currents have similar effects on action potential number when firing is evoked either by depolarizing current injections or by synaptic stimulation. However, they differ in their control of firing frequency, with the voltage-gated potassium current but not the slow AHP determining the initial frequency of action potential firing. This dual mechanism of controlling firing patterns is unique to lateral amygdala neurons and is likely to contribute to the very low levels of firing seen in lateral amygdala neurons in vivo.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Morphological and electrophysiological properties of principal neurons in the rat lateral amygdala in vitro

In this study, we characterize the electrophysiological and morphological properties of spiny principal neurons in the rat lateral amygdala using whole cell recordings in acute brain slices. These neurons exhibited a range of firing properties in response to prolonged current injection. Responses varied from cells that showed full spike frequency adaptation, spiking three to five times, to those that showed no adaptation. The differences in firing patterns were largely explained by the amplitude of the afterhyperpolarization (AHP) that followed spike trains. Cells that showed full spike frequency adaptation had large amplitude slow AHPs, whereas cells that discharged tonically had slow AHPs of much smaller amplitude. During spike trains, all cells showed a similar broadening of their action potentials. Biocytin-filled neurons showed a range of pyramidal-like morphologies, differed in dendritic complexity, had spiny dendrites, and differed in the degree to which they clearly exhibited apical versus basal dendrites. Quantitative analysis revealed no association between cell morphology and firing properties. We conclude that the discharge properties of neurons in the lateral nucleus, in response to somatic current injections, are determined by the differential distribution of ionic conductances rather than through mechanisms that rely on cell morphology.

X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability - Mutation in the homeobox gene ARX

Objective: To describe a new syndrome of X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with generalized spasticity and intellectual disability (XMESID) and identify the gene defect underlying this disorder. Methods: The authors studied a family in which six boys over two generations had intractable seizures using a validated seizure questionnaire, clinical examination, and EEG studies. Previous records and investigations were obtained. Information on seizure disorders was obtained on 271 members of the extended family. Molecular genetic analysis included linkage studies and mutational analysis using a positional candidate gene approach. Results: All six affected boys had myoclonic seizures and TCS; two had infantile spasms, but only one had hypsarrhythmia. EEG studies show diffuse background slowing with slow generalized spike wave activity. All affected boys had moderate to profound intellectual disability. Hyperreflexia was observed in obligate carrier women. A late-onset progressive spastic ataxia in the matriarch raises the possibility of late clinical manifestations in obligate carriers. The disorder was mapped to Xp11.2-22.2 with a maximum lod score of 1.8. As recently reported, a missense mutation (1058C>T/P353L) was identified within the homeodomain of the novel human Aristaless related homeobox gene (ARX). Conclusions: XMESID is a rare X-linked recessive myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability in boys. Hyperreflexia is found in carrier women. XMESID is associated with a missense mutation in ARX. This disorder is allelic with X-linked infantile spasms (ISSX; MIM 308350) where polyalanine tract expansions are the commonly observed molecular defect. Mutations of ARX are associated with a wide range of phenotypes; functional studies in the future may lend insights to the neurobiology of myoclonic seizures and infantile spasms.

Neogene and Quaternary rollback evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Apennines, and the Sicilian Maghrebides

Reconstruction of the evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea shows that the major stage of rifting associated with the opening of this basin began at similar to10 Ma. It involved two episodes of back arc extension, which were induced by the rollback of a west dipping subducting slab. The first period of extension (10-6 Ma) was prominent in the northern Tyrrhenian Sea and in the western part of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The second period of extension, mainly affected the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, began in the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) and has been accompanied by subduction rollback at rates of 60-100 km Myr(-1). Slab reconstruction, combined with paleomagnetic and paleogeographic constraints, indicates that in the central Apennines, the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) arrival of a carbonate platform at the subduction zone impeded subduction and initiated a slab tear and major strike-slip faults. These processes resulted in the formation of a narrow subducting slab beneath the Ionian Sea that has undergone faster subduction rollback and induced extreme rates of back arc extension.

The Mesozoic and Cenozoic motion of Adria (central Mediterranean): a review of constraints and limitations

This paper presents kinematic analysis on the motion of Adria, which is the continental mass that bridges Africa and Europe in the central Mediterranean. Palaeomagnetic data show a general coherence between the motion of Adria and Africa since the Late Paleozoic. This mutual motion, for the period from 120 Ma and the present, is verified by comparing inferred palaeolatitudes from relatively stable parts of Adria (Apulia, Gargano, Istria, and the Southern Alps) and the Hyblean Plateau, with latitudinal changes that are calculated from the motion of Africa with respect to hotspots. Additional constraints on the motion of Adria are provided from the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic passive margin of Adria in the Ionian Sea. The seismic structure of the floor of the Ionian Sea resembles the structure of the oceanic crust in marginal back-arc basins, suggesting that it formed as a small ocean basin. Furthermore, the Ionian lithosphere in the Calabrian arc has been subjected to rapid rollback, which commonly occurs only when the subducting slab is made of oceanic lithosphere. This oceanic domain marks the Pennian-Triassic to Jurassic plate boundary between Adria and Africa, suggesting that a small amount of independent motion between Adria and Africa took place at that time. Since the Jurassic, Adria and Africa have shared a relatively coherent motion path. (C) 2004 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved.

Firing properties and connectivity of neurons in the rat lateral central nucleus of the amygdala

Using whole cell recordings from acute slices of the rat amygdala, we have examined the physiological properties of and synaptic connectivity to neurons in the lateral sector of the central amygdala (CeA). Based on their response to depolarizing current injections, CeA neurons could be divided into three types. Adapting neurons fired action potentials at the start of the current injections at high frequency and then showed complete spike-frequency adaptation with only six to seven action potentials evoked with suprathreshold current injections. Late-firing neurons fired action potentials with a prolonged delay at threshold but then discharged continuously with larger current injections. Repetitive firers discharged at the start of the current injection at threshold and then discharged continuously with larger current injections. All three cells showed prolonged afterhyperpolarizations (AHPs) that followed trains of action potentials. The AHP was longer lasting with a larger slow component in adapting neurons. The AHP in all cell types contained a fast component that was inhibited by the SK channel blocker UCL1848. The slow component, not blocked by UCL1848, was blocked by isoprenaline and was significantly larger in adapting neurons. Blockade of SK channels increased the discharge frequency in late firers and regular-spiking neurons but had no effect on adapting neurons. Blockade of the slow AHP with isoprenaline had no effect on any cell type. All cells received a mixed glutamatergic and GABAergic input from a medial pathway. Electrical stimulation of the lateral (LA) and basolateral (BLA)nuclei evoked a large monosynaptic glutamatergic response followed by a disynaptic inhibitory postsynaptic potential. Activation of neurons in the LA and BLA by puffer application of glutamate evoked a small monosynaptic response in 13 of 55 CeA neurons. Local application of glutamate to the CeL evoked a GABAergic response in all cells. These results show that at least three types of neurons are present in the CeA that can be distinguished on their firing properties. The firing frequency of two of these cell types is determined by activation of SK channels. Cells receive a small input from the LA and BLA but may receive inputs that course through these nuclei en route to the CeA.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Ca2+-activated K+(BK) channel inactivation contributes to spike broadening during repetitive firing in the rat lateral amygdala

In many neurons, trains of action potentials show frequency-dependent broadening. This broadening results from the voltage-dependent inactivation of K+ currents that contribute to action potential repolarisation. In different neuronal cell types these K+ currents have been shown to be either slowly inactivating delayed rectifier type currents or rapidly inactivating A-type voltage-gated K+ currents. Recent findings show that inactivation of a Ca2+-dependent K+ current, mediated by large conductance BK-type channels, also contributes to spike broadening. Here, using whole-cell recordings in acute slices, we examine spike broadening in lateral amygdala projection neurons. Spike broadening is frequency dependent and is reversed by brief hyperpolarisations. This broadening is reduced by blockade of voltage-gated Ca2+ channels and BK channels. In contrast, broadening is not blocked by high concentrations of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) or alpha-dendrotoxin. We conclude that while inactivation of BK-type Ca2+-activated K+ channels contributes to spike broadening in lateral amygdala neurons, inactivation of another as yet unidentified outward current also plays a role.

A Review of the Environmental and Health Effects of Termiticides under Australian Conditions

There exists a major cost issue as regards termite damage to wooden structures. A factor in this cost has been the increasing trend towards slab-on-ground construction. Current literature has been reviewed in relation to concerns about the possible public/environmental health consequences of the repeated use of termiticides in large quantities. The previous, current and projected future use patterns of termiticides are reviewed in the context of techniques appropriate for termite control and treatment priorities. The phasing out of organochlorine termiticides in Australia was undertaken to minimise impact of these substances on the environment and to a lesser extent on public health. These persistent chemicals were replaced by substances with high activity but relatively low persistence in the soil. There has also been an increase in the use of alternative methods (e.g. physical barriers) for the control of termites. The transition away from organochlorine termiticides has led to a realisation that significant information gaps exist with regard to replacement chemicals and other technologies. Although relatively persistent, the organochlorine chemicals have a limited lifespan in soils. Their concentrations are gradually attenuated by processes such as transport away from the point of application and biodegradation. Wooden structures originally treated with these substances will, with the passing of time, be at risk of termite infestation. The only available option is re-treatment with chemicals currently registered for termite control. Thus, there are likely to be substantial future increases associated with the cost of re-treatment and repairs of older slab-on-ground dwellings. More information is required on Australian termite biology, taxonomy and ecology. The risks of termite infestation need to be evaluated, both locally and nationally so that susceptible or high risk areas, structures and building types can be identified and preventive measures taken in terms of design and construction. Building regulations and designs need to be able to reduce or eliminate high-risk housing; and eliminate or reduce conditions that are attractive to termites and/or facilitate termite infestation.