A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to. be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The 'spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/- 50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The case for the ability-based model of emotional intelligence in organizational behavior

In this second counterpoint article, we refute the claims of Landy, Locke, and Conte, and make the more specific case for our perspective, which is that ability-based models of emotional intelligence have value to add in the domain of organizational psychology. In this article, we address remaining issues, such as general concerns about the tenor and tone of the debates on this topic, a tendency for detractors to collapse across emotional intelligence models when reviewing the evidence and making judgments, and subsequent penchant to thereby discount all models, including the ability-based one, as lacking validity. We specifically refute the following three claims from our critics with the most recent empirically based evidence: (1) emotional intelligence is dominated by opportunistic academics-turned-consultants who have amassed much fame and fortune based on a concept that is shabby science at best; (2) the measurement of emotional intelligence is grounded in unstable, psychometrically flawed instruments, which have not demonstrated appropriate discriminant and predictive validity to warrant/justify their use; and (3) there is weak empirical evidence that emotional intelligence is related to anything of importance in organizations. We thus end with an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the role of emotional intelligence in organizational and social behavior.

Marine protected areas for spatially structured exploited stocks

Many harvested marine and terrestrial populations have segments of their range protected in areas free from exploitation. Reasons for areas being protected from harvesting include conservation, tourism, research, protection of breeding grounds, stock recovery, harvest regulation, or habitat that is uneconomical to exploit. In this paper we consider the problem of optimally exploiting a single species local population that is connected by dispersing larvae to an unharvested local population. We define a spatially-explicit population dynamics model and apply dynamic optimization techniques to determine policies for harvesting the exploited patch. We then consider how reservation affects yield and spawning stock abundance when compared to policies that have not recognised the spatial structure of the metapopulation. Comparisons of harvest strategies between an exploited metapopulation with and without a harvest refuge are also made. Results show that in a 2 local population metapopulation with unidirectional larval transfer, the optimal exploitation of the harvested population should be conducted as if it were independent of the reserved population. Numerical examples suggest that relative source populations should be exploited if the objective is to maximise spawning stock abundance within a harvested metapopulation that includes a protected local population. However, this strategy can markedly reduce yield over a sink harvested reserve system and may require strict regulation for conservation goals to be realised. If exchange rates are high, results indicate that spawning stock abundance can be less in a reserve system than in a fully exploited metapopulation. In order to maximise economic gain in the reserve system, results indicate that relative sink populations should be harvested. Depending on transfer levels, loss in harvest through reservation can be minimal, and is likely to be compensated by the potential environmental and economic benefits of the reserve.

Explicit evidence-based prescribing criteria - an important step in achieving quality therapeutics in nursing homes

Reaction between 5-(4-amino-2-thiabutyl)-5-methyl-3,7-dithianonane-1, 9-diamine (N3S3) and 5- methyl-2,2-bipyridine-5-carbaldehyde and subsequent reduction of the resulting imine with sodium borohydride results in a potentially ditopic ligand (L). Treatment of L with one equivalent of an iron( II) salt led to the monoprotonated complex [Fe(HL)](3+), isolated as the hexafluorophosphate salt. The presence of characteristic bands for the tris( bipyridyl) iron( II) chromophore in the UV/vis spectrum indicated that the iron( II) atom is coordinated octahedrally by the three bipyridyl (bipy) groups. The [Fe( bipy) 3] moiety encloses a cavity composed of the N3S3 portion of the ditopic ligand. The mononuclear and monomeric nature of the complex [Fe(HL)](3+) has been established also by accurate mass analysis. [Fe(HL)](3+) displays reduced stability to base compared with the complex [Fe(bipy)(3)](2+). In aqueous solution [Fe(HL)](3+) exhibits irreversible electrochemical behaviour with an oxidation wave ca. 60 mV to more positive potential than [Fe(bipy)(3)](2+). Investigations of the interaction of [Fe(L)](2+) with copper( II), iron( II), and mercury( II) using mass spectroscopic and potentiometric methods suggested that where complexation occurred, fewer than six of the N3S3 cavity donors were involved. The high affinity of the complex [Fe(L)](2+) for protons is one reason suggested to contribute to the reluctance to coordinate a second metal ion.

An energy-based model for swing hammer mills

An energy-based swing hammer mill model has been developed for coke oven feed preparation. it comprises a mechanistic power model to determine the dynamic internal recirculation and a perfect mixing mill model with a dual-classification function to mimic the operations of crusher and screen. The model parameters were calibrated using a pilot-scale swing hammer mill at various operating conditions. The effects of the underscreen configurations and the feed sizes on hammer mill operations were demonstrated through the fitted model parameters. Relationships between the model parameters and the machine configurations were established. The model was validated using the independent experimental data of single lithotype coal tests with the same BJD pilot-scale hammer mill and full operation audit data of an industrial hammer mill. The outcome of the energy-based swing hammer mill model is the capability to simulate the impact of changing blends of coal or mill configurations and operating conditions on product size distribution. Alternatively, the model can be used to select the machine settings required to achieve a desired product. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Review of the ecology of Australian urban fauna: A focus on spatially explicit processes

Cities have a major impact on Australian landscapes, especially in coastal regions, to the detriment of native biodiversity. Areas suitable for urban development often coincide with those areas that support high levels of species diversity and endemism. However, there is a paucity of reliable information available to guide urban conservation planning and management, especially regarding the trade-off between investing in protecting and restoring habitat at the landscape level, and investing in programmes to maintain the condition of remnant vegetation at the local (site) level. We review the literature on Australian urban ecology, focusing on urban terrestrial and aquatic vertebrate and invertebrate fauna. We identify four main factors limiting our knowledge of urban fauna: (i) a lack of studies focusing at multiple ecological levels; (ii) a lack of multispecies studies; (iii) an almost total absence of long-term (temporal) studies; and (iv) a need for stronger integration of research outcomes into urban conservation planning and management. We present a set of key principles for the development of a spatially explicit, long-term approach to urban fauna research. This requires an understanding of the importance of local-level habitat quality and condition relative to the composition, configuration and connectivity of habitats within the larger urban landscape. These principles will ultimately strengthen urban fauna management and conservation planning by enabling us to prioritize and allocate limited financial resources to maximize the conservation return.

A patttern based model evolution approach

In this paper, we present a framework for pattern-based model evolution approaches in the MDA context. In the framework, users define patterns using a pattern modeling language that is designed to describe software design patterns, and they can use the patterns as rules to evolve their model. In the framework, design model evolution takes place via two steps. The first step is a binding process of selecting a pattern and defining where and how to apply the pattern in the model. The second step is an automatic model transformation that actually evolves the model according to the binding information and the pattern rule. The pattern modeling language is defined in terms of a MOF-based role metamodel, and implemented using an existing modeling framework, EMF, and incorporated as a plugin to the Eclipse modeling environment. The model evolution process is also implemented as an Eclipse plugin. With these two plugins, we provide an integrated framework where defining and validating patterns, and model evolution based on patterns can take place in a single modeling environment.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

Intake rates and the functional response in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) eating macro-invertebrates

As field determinations take much effort, it would be useful to be able to predict easily the coefficients describing the functional response of free-living predators, the function relating food intake rate to the abundance of food organisms in the environment. As a means easily to parameterise an individual-based model of shorebird Charadriiformes populations, we attempted this for shorebirds eating macro-invertebrates. Intake rate is measured as the ash-free dry mass (AFDM) per second of active foraging; i.e. excluding time spent on digestive pauses and other activities, such as preening. The present and previous studies show that the general shape of the functional response in shorebirds eating approximately the same size of prey across the full range of prey density is a decelerating rise to a plateau, thus approximating the Holling type 11 ('disc equation') formulation. But field studies confirmed that the asymptote was not set by handling time, as assumed by the disc equation, because only about half the foraging time was spent in successfully or unsuccessfully attacking and handling prey, the rest being devoted to searching. A review of 30 functional responses showed that intake rate in free-living shorebirds varied independently of prey density over a wide range, with the asymptote being reached at very low prey densities (< 150/m(-2)). Accordingly, most of the many studies of shorebird intake rate have probably been conducted at or near the asymptote of the functional response, suggesting that equations that predict intake rate should also predict the asymptote. A multivariate analysis of 468 'spot' estimates of intake rates from 26 shorebirds identified ten variables, representing prey and shorebird characteristics, that accounted for 81 % of the variance in logarithm-transformed intake rate. But four-variables accounted for almost as much (77.3 %), these being bird size, prey size, whether the bird was an oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus eating mussels Mytilus edulis, or breeding. The four variable equation under-predicted, on average, the observed 30 estimates of the asymptote by 11.6%, but this discrepancy was reduced to 0.2% when two suspect estimates from one early study in the 1960s were removed. The equation therefore predicted the observed asymptote very successfully in 93 % of cases. We conclude that the asymptote can be reliably predicted from just four easily measured variables. Indeed, if the birds are not breeding and are not oystercatchers eating mussels, reliable predictions can be obtained using just two variables, bird and prey sizes. A multivariate analysis of 23 estimates of the half-asymptote constant suggested they were smaller when prey were small but greater when the birds were large, especially in oystercatchers. The resulting equation could be used to predict the half-asymptote constant, but its predictive power has yet to be tested. As well as predicting the asymptote of the functional response, the equations will enable research workers engaged in many areas of shorebird ecology and behaviour to estimate intake rate without the need for conventional time-consuming field studies, including species for which it has not yet proved possible to measure intake rate in the field.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Modelling dispersal behaviour on a fractal landscape

We use a spatially explicit population model to explore the population consequences of different habitat selection mechanisms on landscapes with fractal variation in habitat quality. We consider dispersal strategies ranging from random walks to perfect habitat selectors for two species of arboreal marsupial, the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus caninus). In this model increasing habitat selection means individuals obtain higher quality territories, but experience increased mortality during dispersal. The net effect is that population sizes are smaller when individuals actively select habitat. We find positive relationships between habitat quality and population size can occur when individuals do not use information about the entire landscape when habitat quality is spatially autocorrelated. We also find that individual behaviour can mitigate the negative effects of spatial variation on population average survival and fecundity. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.