Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

EphA receptors and ephrin-A ligands exhibit highly regulated spatial and temporal expression patterns in the developing olfactory system

The spatiotemporal expression patterns of the chemorepulsive EphA receptors, EphA4 and EphA7, and three ephrins-A2, A4 and A5, were examined in the developing rat primary olfactory system. Unlike the visual system that has simple and stable gradients of Ephs and ephrins, the olfactory system demonstrates complex spatiotemporal expression patterns of these molecules. Using immunohistochemistry, we demonstrate that expression of these molecules is dynamic and tightly regulated both within and between different cell types. We reveal restricted targeting of these proteins within subcellular compartments of some neurons. EphA4, ephrin-A2 and ephrin-A5 were expressed by primary olfactory axons during the embryonic formation of the olfactory nerve. There were no gradients in expression along the rostrocaudal or ventrodorsal axes in the nasal cavity and olfactory bulb. However, during the early neonatal period, axons expressing different levels of ephrin-A5 sorted out and terminated in a subpopulation of glomeruli that were mosaically dispersed throughout the bulb. The expression of EphA4 and ephrin-A2 was dramatically down-regulated on all axons during the early neonatal period of glomerular formation. The uniform co-expression of receptors and ligands before glomerular formation suggests they play a generic role in axon-axon interactions in the olfactory nerve and nerve fibre layer. In contrast, loss of EphA4 from axons during glomerular formation may facilitate the interaction of ephrin-A5 with Eph receptors on target cells in the bulb. While EphA4, EphA5 and EphA7 are not mosaically expressed by bulbar neurons, other Eph receptors may have expression patterns complementary to the ephrin-A5-positive subpopulation of glomeruli. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The evaluation of the spatial and temporal stability of sugarcane farm performance based on yield and commercial cane sugar

In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.

Spatial and temporal variation in algal-assemblage structure in isolated dryland river waterholes, Cooper Creek and Warrego River, Australia

The scale at which algal biodiversity is partitioned across the landscape, and the biophysical processes and biotic interactions which shape these communities in dryland river refugia was studied on two occasions from 30 sites in two Australian dryland rivers. Despite the waterholes studied having characteristically high levels of abiogenic turbidity, a total of 186 planktonic microalgae, 253 benthic diatom and 62 macroalgal species were recorded. The phytoplankton communities were dominated by flagellated cryptophytes, euglenophytes and chlorophytes, the diatom communities by cosmopolitan taxa known to tolerate wide environmental conditions, and the macroalgal communities by filamentous cyanobacteria. All algal communities showed significant differences between catchments and sampling times, with a suite of between 5 and 12 taxa responsible for similar to 50% of the observed change. In general, algal assemblage patterns were poorly correlated with the measured environmental variables. Phytoplankton and diatom assemblage patterns were weakly correlated with several waterhole geomorphic measures, whereas macroalgal assemblage patterns showed some association with variability in ionic concentration.

The spatial and temporal distribution of koala faecal pellets

Faecal pellets were collected under trees used by free-ranging koalas in south-western, central and southeastern Queensland to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of pellets with respect to the activity of koalas. Deposition of faecal pellets by koalas was analysed according to the time of day at which the tree was occupied. For free-ranging koalas, 47% of daily faecal pellet output was recovered using a collection mat of 8 x 8 m placed under a day-roost tree. The best predictor of pellet production was the presence of a koala in a tree between 1800 hours and midnight. For other periods, there was no relationship between period of tree occupancy and faecal pellet recovery. There was a significant relationship between the average length of tree occupancy and the time of day that a koala entered a tree.

Spatial and temporal changes in multiple hormone groups during lateral bud release shortly following apex decapitation of chickpea (Cicer arietinum) seedlings

Although the co-ordination of promotive root-sourced cytokinin (CK) and inhibitory shoot apex-sourced auxin (IAA) is central to all current models on lateral bud dormancy release, control by those hormones alone has appeared inadequate in many studies. Thus it was hypothesized that the IAA : CK model is the central control but that it must be considered within the relevant timeframe leading to lateral bud release and against a backdrop of interactions with other hormone groups. Therefore, IAA and a wide survey of cytokinins (CKs), were examined along with abscisic acid (ABA) and polyamines (PAs) in released buds, tissue surrounding buds and xylem sap at 1 and 4 h after apex removal, when lateral buds of chickpea are known to break dormancy. Three potential lateral bud growth inhibitors, IAA, ABA and cis-zeatin 9-riboside (ZR), declined sharply in the released buds and xylem following decapitation. This is in contrast to potential dormancy breaking CKs like trans-ZR and trans-zeantin 9-riboside 5'phosphate (ZRMP), which represented the strongest correlative changes by increasing 3.5-fold in xylem sap and 22-fold in buds. PAs had not changed significantly in buds or other tissues after 4 h, so they were not directly involved in the breaking of bud dormancy. Results from the xylem and surrounding tissues indicated that bud CK increases resulted from a combination synthesis in the bud and selective loading of CK nucleotides into the xylem from the root.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Spatial and temporal definition of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson) (Diptera : Culicidae) in the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria

The confirmed vector of Ross River virus, Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson), is the dominant mosquito species inhabiting saline marshes in coastal Victoria. This paper re-examines previously published data on Oc. camptorhynchus, plus additional data collected since that time, and provides greater spatial and temporal definition of Oc. camptorhynchus numbers at seven sites across the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria. A total of 357 672 Oc. camptorhynchus was captured from 1188 trap-nights across the seven trap sites during trapping seasons from 1990 to 2001. The dominance of Oc. camptorhynchus across the seven sites averaged 75%, with significant differences in mean abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus found between all trap sites. Significant differences in monthly abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus were observed for Wellington Shire. Increase in populations of Oc. camptorhynchus was associated with increases in rainfall at all trap sites, higher minimum temperatures at two of the seven trap sites, and wind speed at one trap site. Prioritisation of mosquito control may be applied based on spatial and temporal factors according to the findings of this study.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial bias and temporal lag in tactile space perception

Constructing a veridical spatial map by touch poses at least two problems for a perceptual system. First, as the hand is moved through space, the locations of features may be displaced if there is an uncorrected lag between the moment the hand encounters a feature and the time that feature is encoded on a spatial map. Second, due to the sequential nature of the process, some form of memory, which itself may be subject to spatial distortions, is required for integration of spatial samples. We investigated these issues using a task involving active haptic exploration with a stylus swept back and forth in the horizontal plane at the wrist. Remembered locations of tactile targets were shifted towards the medial axis of the forearm, suggesting a central tendency in haptic spatial memory, while evidence for a displacement of perceived locations in the direction of sweep motion was consistent with processing delays.