A framework for progressively improving small area population estimates

The paper presents a framework for small area population estimation that enables users to select a method that is fit for the purpose. The adjustments to input data that are needed before use are outlined, with emphasis on developing consistent time series of inputs. We show how geographical harmonization of small areas, which is crucial to comparisons over time, can be achieved. For two study regions, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber, the differences in output and consequences of adopting different methods are illustrated. The paper concludes with a discussion of how data, on stream since 1998, might be included in future small area estimates.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

The effect of spatial definition on the allocation of clients to screening clinics

We compared four strategies for inviting 91,456 women aged 50-69 years to one of six clinics for mammography screening and 40,142 men aged 60-79 years to one of 10 clinics for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. The strategies were invitation to the clinic nearest to the client and invitation to the clinic nearest to the client's area of residence defined by census small area, postcode and local government area. For each strategy we calculated the expected demand at each clinic and the travel distances for clients. We found that when women were allocated to mammography clinics on the basis of the local government area instead of their individual address, expected demand at one clinic increased by 60%, and 19% of clients were invited to attend a more remote clinic, entailing 99,000 km of additional travel. Similar results were obtained for men allocated to AAA clinics by their postcode of residence instead of their individual address: 55% difference in expected demand, 13% to a more remote clinic and 60,000 km of extra travel. Allocation on the basis of small areas did not show such great differences, except for travel distance, which was about 5% higher for each clinic type. We recommend that allocation of clients to screening clinics be made according to residential address, that assessment of the location of clinics be based on distances between residences and nearest clinic, but that planning new locations for clinics be aided with spatial analysis tools using small area demographic and social data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

A classification of subantarctic Heard Island vegetation

The vascular and bryophyte floras of subantarctic Heard Island were classified using cluster analysis into six vegetation communities: Open Cushion Carpet, Mossy Feldmark, Wet Mixed Herbfield, Coastal Biotic Vegetation, Saltspray Vegetation, and Closed Cushion Carpet. Multidimensional scaling indicated that the vegetation communities were not well delineated but were continua. Discriminant analysis and a classification tree identified altitude, wind, peat depth, bryophyte cover and extent of bare ground, and particle size as discriminating variables. The combination of small area, glaciation, and harsh climate has resulted in reduced vegetation variety in comparison to those subantarctic islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front Zone. Some of the functional groups and vegetation communities found on warmer subantarctic islands are not present on Heard Island, notably ferns and sedges and fernbrakes and extensive mires, respectively.

A new species of Phyllurus (Lacertilia : Gekkonidae) and a revised phylogeny and key for the Australian leaf-tailed geckos

Phyllurus gulbaru, sp. nov., is a highly distinct species of leaf-tailed gecko restricted to rocky rainforest of Pattersons Gorge, north-west of Townsville. The possession of a cylindrical, non-depressed, tapering original and regenerated tail separates P. gulbaru from all congeners except P. caudiannulatus. From this species P. gulbaru is separated by having a partially divided, as opposed to fully divided, rostral scale. Furthermore, the very small spinose body tubercles of P. gulbaru are in marked contrast to the large spinose body scales of P. caudiannulatus. An analysis of 729 bp of mitochondrial 12S rRNA and cytochrome b genes reveals P. gulbaru to be a deeply divergent lineage with closer affinities to mid-east Queensland congeners than the geographically neighbouring P. amnicola on Mt Elliot. In conservation terms, P. gulbaru is clearly at risk. Field surveys of Pattersons Gorge and the adjacent ranges indicate that this species is restricted to a very small area of highly fragmented habitat, of which only a small proportion receives a degree of protection in State forest. Further, there is ongoing, unchecked destruction of dry rainforest habitat by fire. Under current IUCN criteria, P. gulbaru warrants an Endangered ( B1, 2) listing.

Increased ovulation rate in Merino ewes immunized against small synthetic peptide fragments of the inhibin alpha subunit

Four experiments were carried out in Merino ewes during a period of 4 years to determine the long-term effects of immunization against different synthetic peptides mimicking the amine terminal of the or subunit of porcine inhibin. Peptides were conjugated to human serum albumin and 100-200 mu g emulsified in Freund's complete adjuvant for the primary immunization. Usually two booster injections were given at monthly intervals with 50-100 mu g conjugated peptide using either incomplete Freund's adjuvant or Montanide : Marcel. In some experiments a further immunization was carried in the next year. Blood samples were taken 10 days after each immunization, during the luteal phase, for estimation of gonadotrophin concentrations and determination of inhibin antibody titres. One day after blood sampling cloprostenol was used to induce luteolysis and laparoscopy was performed in the subsequent oestrous cycle. Immunization of ewes with synthetic peptides 1-32, 1-26, 7-26 and 8-30 resulted in large increases in the ovulation rate (OR). An approximately two-fold increase in OR was observed following the first booster immunization with these peptides and a three- to five-fold increase after the second booster immunization. Immunization with these large peptides resulted in a sustained increase in OR for a period of at least 1 year after the second booster immunization. Of the shorter peptides, peptides 10-26 and 13-26 gave a reasonable ovulatory response, although it was more difficult to obtain a response with peptides 1-16, 8-22, 13-25, 8-19 and 10-19; peptides 7-13 and 1-6 gave no response (but were examined for one breeding season only). The smaller peptides led to lower inhibin antibody titres that were not necessarily associated with increased follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) or OR. More intensive blood sampling in one experiment showed that following primary immunization against peptide 1-32 there was a transient increase in plasma FSH which did not lead to an increased OR. Moreover, a prolonged period of raised FSH after the first booster was significantly correlated with increased OR. In these animals antibody titres were only slightly increased after primary immunization, but after the first booster immunization higher titres were observed that were significantly correlated with trough FSH values and the subsequent OR. These results are interpreted as showing that (1) to obtain an increase in OR peptides 1-32, 1-26 and 7-26 are suitable as immunogens; (2) smaller peptides are less reliable, often require multiple injections, and the response may be delayed; and (3) an extended period of raised plasma FSH is needed to give a large ovulatory response.

Limited ecoclinal variation found in Malva parviflora (small-flowered mallow) across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia

Malva parviflora L. populations were collected from 24 locations across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia and grown in Perth in a common garden experiment. Seventeen morphometric and taxonomic measurements were taken and genetic variation was investigated by performing principal components analysis (PCA). Taxonomic measurements confirmed that all plants used in the study were M. parviflora. Greater variation occurred within populations than between populations. Separation between populations was only evident between northern and southern populations along principal components 2 (PC2), which was due mainly to flowering time. Flowering time and consequently photoperiod were highly correlated with latitude and regression analysis revealed a close relationship (r(2) = 0.6). Additionally, the pollination system of M. parviflora was examined. Plants were able to self-pollinate without the need for external vectors and the pollen ovule ratio (31 +/- 1.3) revealed that M. parviflora is most likely to be an obligate inbreeder with a slight potential for outcrossing. The limited variation of M. parviflora enhances the likelihood of suitable control strategies being effective across a broad area.

Generation of eigenstates using the phase-estimation algorithm

The phase estimation algorithm is so named because it allows an estimation of the eigenvalues associated with an operator. However, it has been proposed that the algorithm can also be used to generate eigenstates. Here we extend this proposal for small quantum systems, identifying the conditions under which the phase-estimation algorithm can successfully generate eigenstates. We then propose an implementation scheme based on an ion trap quantum computer. This scheme allows us to illustrate two simple examples, one in which the algorithm effectively generates eigenstates, and one in which it does not.

A technique to assess small-scale heterogeneity of chemical properties in soil aggregates

A new method is presented which allows the separation of the soil aggregate exterior from the aggregate core. The method employs a combination of aggregate freezing with rapid separation of aggregate exteriors using ultrasonic energy. The factors influencing the thickness of the removed aggregate surface layer include water content of the aggregate prior to freezing, temperature difference between that of the frozen aggregate and that of the liquid it is submerged in during sonification, sonification time and energy, and the type of the immersion liquid. The success of the method and the thickness of the removed aggregate surface were examined using barium ( Ba2+) as a tracer. Barium ( as BaCl2) is rapidly absorbed by soil and is present at only very low levels in natural soils. Surface layers of 0.2 - 0.4 cm thickness were successfully removed from aggregates of 1 - 4 cm diameter. Two examples are given from soils in northern NSW to demonstrate the occurrence of small- scale heterogeneity in soil chemical properties. Compared with the surface fraction, a 4 - 7% higher calcium concentration was found in the core fraction of a clay loam soil ( Dermosol). Conversely, on a cracking clay soil ( Vertosol), atrazine concentration was around 15 times greater in the aggregate surface fractions compared with core fractions. Compared with the traditional estimation of soil chemical properties on homogenised bulk soil samples, it is suggested that separate analysis of aggregate surface and core fractions could provide useful additional information on the relationships between soil properties and environmental responses.

The impact of prolonged fasting during aestivation on the structure of the small intestine in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata

The effects of short-term fasting and prolonged fasting during aestivation on the morphology of the proximal small intestine and associated organs were investigated in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata (Anura: Hylidae). Animals were fasted for 1 week while active or for 3-9 months during aestivation. Short-duration fasting (1 week) had little effect on the morphology of the small intestine, whilst prolonged fasting during aestivation induced marked enteropathy including reductions in intestinal mass, length and diameter, longitudinal fold height and tunica muscularis thickness. Enterocyte morphology was also affected markedly by prolonged fasting: enterocyte cross-sectional area and microvillous height were reduced during aestivation, intercellular spaces were visibly reduced and the prevalence of lymphocytes amongst enterocytes was increased. Mitochondria and nuclei were also affected by 9 months of aestivation with major disruptions to mitochondrial cristae and increased clumping of nuclear material and increased infolding of the nuclear envelope. The present study demonstrates that the intestine of an aestivating frog responds to prolonged food deprivation during aestivation by reducing in size, presumably to reduce the energy expenditure of the organ.

Occupational and non-occupational risk factors in bladder cancer patients in an industrialized area located in former east-Germany

Purpose: Several occupational carcinogens are metabolized by polymorphic enzymes. The distribution of the polymorphic enzymes N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2; substrates: aromatic amines), glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1; substrates: e.g., reactive metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), and glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1; substrates: small molecules with 1 - 2 carbon atoms) were investigated. Material and Methods: At the urological department in Lutherstadt Wittenberg, 136 patients with a histologically proven transitional cell cancer of the urinary bladder were investigated for all occupations performed for more than 6 months. Several occupational and non-occupational risk factors were asked. The genotypes of NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined from leucocyte DNA by PCR. Results: Compared to the general population in Middle Europe, the percentage of GSTT1 negative persons (22.1%) was ordinary; the percentage of slow acetylators (59.6%) was in the upper normal range, while the percentage of GSTM1 negative persons (58.8%) was elevated in the entire group. Shifts in the distribution of the genotypes were observed in subgroups who had been exposed to asbestos (6/6 GSTM1 negative, 5/6 slow acetylators), rubber manufacturing (8/10 GSTM1 negative), and chlorinated solvents (9/15 GSTM1 negative). Conclusions: The overrepresentation of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer patients also in this industrialized area and more pronounced in several occupationally exposed subgroups points to an impact of the GSTM1 negative genotype in bladder carcinogenesis.

The practicality of adaptive phase estimation

Adaptive phase estimation is the process of estimating the phase of an electromagnetic field via a continually changing measurement. The measurement is varied in an attempt to optimize it at each moment. In this paper, we show that adaptive phase estimation is more accurate than nonadaptive phase estimation for continuous beams of light even when small time delays in the feedback are present. (c) 2005 Pleiades Publishing Inc.