The effectiveness of heat, cold and 6-dimethylaminopurine shocks for inducing tetraploidy in the Kuruma shrimp, Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate)

In this study tetraploid Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate) embryos were produced by preventing the first division in mitosis. The effectiveness of temperature and chemical shocks for producing tetraploid M. japonicus were assessed when applied at different times postspawning and for different durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos (spawned at 27 degrees C) were produced by heat shocks at 35 degrees C and 36 degrees C in three and eight spawning samples respectively, and a cold shock at 5 degrees C in a single spawning sample. All temperature shocks inducing tetraploidy were applied 18-23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration. The percentage of spawnings successfully inducing tetraploid embryos (i.e., frequency of induction) ranged from 33.33% to 66.67% for the 21, 22 and 23 min postspawning heat shock treatment regimes. The percentage of tetraploid embryos within an induction (i.e., induction rate), as determined by flow cytometry, ranged from 8.82% to 98.12% (ave. S.E.) (34.4 +/- 21.4%) for the 35 degrees C shock treatments, from 13.12% to 61.02% (35.0 +/- 5.0%) for the 36 degrees C shock treatments and was 15% for the 5 degrees C cold shock treatment. No tetraploids were produced for spawnings that received heat shocks above 36 degrees C or below 35 degrees C, or for cold shocks above 5 degrees C for any of the tested postspawning treatment and duration times. Chemical shock with 150 mu M 6-dimethylaminopurine did not result in tetraploid M. japonicus embryos at any of the tested postspawning treatment times and durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos were nonviable, with no tetraploid larvae being detected by flow cytometry. Based on our results heat shocking of M. japonicus embryos at 36 degrees C, 23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration is the most effective means to produce tetraploids through inhibition of the first mitotic division (taking into consideration the importance of frequency and induction rate equally).

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

The oil shock of 2005

During the course of 2005, the price of crude oil reached unprecedented high levels, at least in nominal terms. Australian motorists have become used to paying more than a dollar a litre for petrol. Given the past volatility in oil prices, often described in terms of a series of oil ‘shocks’ (the large price increases in 1973, 1979 and 1999), several questions arise. First, will current high prices persist, or will prices decline substantially as occurred after previous oil shocks? Second, is the current shortage of oil a temporary phenomenon, caused by inadequate investment in oil exploration, drilling and refining capacity, or is it a signal that the supply of oil available to the world has peaked? Third, will high oil prices lead to broader economic disruption, as is commonly supposed to have happened after previous shocks? Fourth, how painful will an adjustment to lower use of oil be? Finally, how does all this relate to our efforts to deal with the problem of climate change? This article is an effort to answer some of these questions in the light of the knowledge available to us.