Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

Regulation of Amh during sex determination in chickens: Sox gene expression in male and female gonads

During mammalian sexual development, the SOX9 transcription factor up-regulates expression of the gene encoding anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), but in chickens, Sox9 gene expression reportedly occurs after the onset of Amh expression. Here, we examined expression of the related gene Sox8 in chicken embryonic gonads during the sex-determining period. We found that cSox8 is expressed at similar levels in both sexes at embryonic day 6 and 7, and only at the anterior tip of the gonad, suggesting that SOX8 is not responsible for the sex-specific increase in cAmh gene expression at these stages. We also found that several other chicken Sox genes (cSox3, cSox4 and cSox11) are expressed in embryonic gonads, but at similar levels in both sexes. Our data suggest that the molecular mechanisms involved in the regulation of Amh genes of mouse and chicken are not conserved, despite similar patterns of Amh expression in both species.

Lifetime suicide risk in major depression: sex and age determinants

Background: Recent work has demonstrated that the lifetime suicide risk for patients with DSM IV Major Depression cannot mathematically approximate the accepted figure of 15%. Gender and age significantly affect both the prevalence of major depression and suicide risk, Methods: Gender and age stratified calculations were made on the entire population of the USA in 1994 using a mathematical algorithm. Sex specific corrections for under-reporting were incorporated into the design. Results: The lifetime suicide risks for men and women were 7% and 1%, respectively. The combined risk was 3.4%. The male:female ratio for suicide risk in major depression was 10:1 for youths under 25, and 5.6:1 for adults. Conclusions: Suicide in major depression is predominantly a male problem, although complacency towards female sufferers is to be avoided. Diagnosis of major depression is of limited help in predicting suicide risk compared to case specific factors. The male experience of depression that leads to suicide is often not identified as a legitimate medical complaint by either sufferers or professionals. Increasing help-accessing by males is a priority. Clinical implications: Patients with a history of hospitalisation; comorbidity, especially for substance abuse; and who are male, require greater vigilance for suicide risk. It may be that for males che threshold for diagnosing and treating major depression needs to be lowered. Limitations: This research is based on a mathematical algorithm to approximate a life-long longitudinal study that identifies community cases of depression. Our findings therefore rely on the validity of the statistics used. Extrapolation is limited to populations with an actual suicide rate of 17/100,000 or less and a lifetime prevalence of major depression of 17% or more. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological analysis of electroconvulsive therapy in Victoria, Australia

Objective: To determine the population-based utilization rate of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in Victoria between 1998-1999, to examine the characteristics of the ECT treated group, and to identify patient factors independently associated with differential rates of ECT treatment. Method: Electroconvulsive therapy is reported under statute in Victoria, Australia. Crude, age-adjusted and age-sex specific utilization rates were calculated using this statutory data for the 1998-1999 financial year and estimated mid-year populations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive characteristics of those treated with ECT were derived from the statutory data. Patient factors associated with an increased likelihood of ECT in the public sector were explored with logistic regression analysis, using non-ECT treated mental health patients from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register as the reference population. Results: The crude treated-person and age-adjusted rates for the State (both public and private sectors) were 39.9 and 44.0 persons per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. The crude and age-adjusted administration rates were 330.3 and 362.6 ECT administrations per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. Age-sex specific rates varied by age and sex, with rates generally increasing with age and female sex. Overall, 62.8% of the treated group were women, 32.9% aged over 64, and 75.2% had depression. Diagnosis, age and sex each independently predicted ECT in the public sector, with diagnosis the most important factor, followed by age then sex. Conclusions: Despite decades of use, the appropriate rate of ECT utilization is still unclear. Further research should be directed at exploring the factors, including provider variables, determining ECT treatment.

Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK

Objective: To evaluate the cost of atrial fibrillation (AF) to health and social services in the UK in 1995 and, based on epidemiological trends, to project this estimate to 2000. Design, setting, and main outcome measures: Contemporary estimates of health care activity related to AF were applied to the whole population of the UK on an age and sex specific basis for the year 1995. The activities considered ( and costs calculated) were hospital admissions, outpatient consultations, general practice consultations, and drug treatment ( including the cost of monitoring anticoagulant treatment). By adjusting for the progressive aging of the British population and related increases in hospital admissions, the cost of AF was also projected to the year 2000. Results: There were 534 000 people with AF in the UK during 1995. The direct'' cost of health care for these patients was pound 244 million (similar toE350 million) or 0.62% of total National Health Service ( NHS) expenditure. Hospitalisations and drug prescriptions accounted for 50% and 20% of this expenditure, respectively. Long term nursing home care after hospital admission cost an additional pound46.4 million (similar toE66 million). The direct cost of AF rose to pound459 million (similar toE655 million) in 2000, equivalent to 0.97% of total NHS expenditure based on 1995 figures. Nursing home costs rose to pound111 million (similar toE160 million). Conclusions: AF is an extremely costly public health problem.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Molecular analysis reveals tighter social regulation of immigration in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations

Human social organization can deeply affect levels of genetic diversity. This fact implies that genetic information can be used to study social structures, which is the basis of ethnogenetics. Recently, methods have been developed to extract this information from genetic data gathered from subdivided populations that have gone through recent spatial expansions, which is typical of most human populations. Here, we perform a Bayesian analysis of mitochondrial and Y chromosome diversity in three matrilocal and three patrilocal groups from northern Thailand to infer the number of males and females arriving in these populations each generation and to estimate the age of their range expansion. We find that the number of male immigrants is 8 times smaller in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations, whereas women move 2.5 times more in patrilocal populations than in matrilocal populations. In addition to providing genetic quantification of sex-specific dispersal rates in human populations, we show that although men and women are exchanged at a similar rate between matrilocal populations, there are far fewer men than women moving into patrilocal populations. This finding is compatible with the hypothesis that men are strictly controlling male immigration and promoting female immigration in patrilocal populations and that immigration is much less regulated in matrilocal populations.

Beneficial associations of physical activity with 2-h but not fasting blood glucose in Australian adults

OBJECTIVE - We examined the associations of physical activity with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and with 2-h postload plasma glucose (2-h PG) in men and women with low, moderate, and high waist circumference. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study provided data on a population-based cross-sectional sample of 4,108 men and 5,106 women aged >= 25 years without known diabetes or health conditions that could affect physical activity. FPG and 2-h PG were obtained from an oral glucose tolerance test. Self-reported physical activity level was defined according to the current public health guidelines as active (>= 150 min/week across five or more sessions) or inactive (< 150 min/week and/or less than five sessions). Sex-specific quintiles of physical activity time were used to ascertain dose response. RESULTS - Being physically active and total physical activity time were independently and negatively associated with 2-h PG. When physical activity level was considered within each waist circumference category, 2-h PG was significantly lower in active high-waist circumference women (beta-0.30 [95% CI -0.59 to -0.01], P = 0.044) and active low-waist circumference men(beta-0.25 [-0.49 to -0.02],P = 0.036) compared with their inactive counterparts. Considered across physical activity and waist circumference categories, 2-h PG levels were not significantly different between active moderate-waist circumference participants and active low-waist circumference participants. Associations between physical activity and FPG were nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS - There are important differences between 2-h PG and FPG related to physical activity. It appears that 2-h PG is more sensitive to the beneficial effects of physical activity, and these benefits occur across the waist circumference spectrum.

Prevalence of heart failure and systolic ventricular dysfunction in older Australians: the Canberra Heart Study

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of heart failure (HF) and left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction in a population-based sample of older Australians. Design, setting and participants: A cross-sectional survey of 2000 randomly selected residents of Canberra, aged 60-86 years, conducted between February 2002 and June 2003. Participants were assessed by history, physical examination by a cardiologist, and echocardiography. Main outcome measures: Age- and sex-specific prevalence rates of clinical HF and LV systolic dysfunction (defined as LV ejection fraction

The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Pacific and South-East Asian regions

Background: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. Objective: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. Design and subjects: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the,600 000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. Results: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from < 1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from < 1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and < 1-22% in females. Conclusions: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.

The development of preferences for specific body shapes

Research with adults has shown a preference for average-weight female figures with waist-to-hip ratios (WHR) of 0.7, and average weight male figures with waist-to-hip ratios of 0.9. This study investigated the development of preferences for WHR sizes as well as preferences for specific body weights. Five-hundred eleven children ranging in age from 6 to 17 were presented with drawings of 12 male and 12 female silhouettes varying in weight and WHR and asked to select one they thought looked the nicest or most attractive. The youngest children showed preferences for the underweight figures, changing to consistent preferences for the average weight figures in the teenage years. The developmental curves for waist-to-hip ratio preferences were linear, changing gradually over time to become more adult-like. Potential developmental models for the development of preferences for specific body shapes are considered in relation to these data.

Regional, disease specific patterns of smoking-attributable mortality in 2000

Background: Smoking has been causally associated with increased mortality from several diseases, and has increased considerably in many developing countries in the past few decades. Mortality attributable to smoking in the year 2000 was estimated for adult males and females, including estimates by age and for specific diseases in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. Methods: Lung cancer mortality was used as an indirect marker of the accumulated hazard of smoking. Never-smoker lung cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Estimates of mortality caused by smoking were made for lung cancer, upper aerodigestive cancer, all other cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD), other respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and selected other medical causes. Estimates were limited to ages 30 years and above. Results: In 2000, an estimated 4.83 million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking, 2.41 million in developing countries and 2.43 million in industrialised countries. There were 3.84 million male deaths and 1.00 million female deaths attributable to smoking. 2.69 million smoking attributable deaths were between the ages of 30 - 69 years, and 2.14 million were 70 years of age and above. The leading causes of death from smoking in industrialised regions were cardiovascular diseases ( 1.02 million deaths), lung cancer (0.52 million deaths), and COPD (0.31 million deaths), and in the developing world cardiovascular diseases (0.67 million deaths), COPD (0.65 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.33 million deaths). The share of male and female deaths and younger and older adult deaths, and of various diseases in total smoking attributable deaths exhibited large inter-regional heterogeneity, especially in the developing world. Conclusions: Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000, affecting a large number of diseases. Age, sex, and disease patterns of smoking-caused mortality varied greatly across regions, due to both historical and current smoking patterns, and the presence of other risk factors that affect background mortality from specific diseases.

Hypoxia induces chondrocyte-specific gene expression in mesenchymal cells in association with transcriptional activation of Sox9

Endochondral bone is formed during an avascular period in an environment of low oxygen. Under these conditions, pluripotential mesenchymal stromal cells preferentially differentiate into chondrocytes and form cartilage. In this study, we investigated the hypothesis that oxygen tension modulates bone mesenchymal cell fate by altering the expression of genes that function to promote chondrogenesis. Microarray of RNA samples from ST2 cells revealed significant changes in 728 array elements (P < 0.01) in response to hypoxia. Real-time PCR on these RNA samples, and separate samples from C3H10T1/2 cells, revealed hypoxia-induced changes in the expression of additional genes known to be expressed by chondrocytes including Sox9 and its downstream targets aggrecan and Col2a. These changes were accompanied by the accumulation of mucopolysacharide as detected by alcian blue staining. To investigate the mechanisms responsible for upregulation of Sox9 by hypoxia, we determined the effect of hypoxia on HIF-1 alpha levels and Sox9 promoter activity in ST2 cells. Hypoxia increased nuclear accumulation of HIF-1 alpha and activated the Sox9 promoter. The ability of hypoxia to transactivate the Sox9 promoter was virtually abolished by deletion of HIF-1 alpha consensus sites within the proximal promoter. These findings suggest that hypoxia promotes the differentiation of mesenchymal cells along a chondrocyte pathway in part by activating Sox-9 via a HIF-1 alpha-dependent mechanism. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Delayed Sry and Sox9 expression in developing mouse gonads underlies B6-Y-DOM sex reversal

The phenomenon of B6-Y-DOM sex reversal arises when certain variants of the Mus domesticus Y chromosome are crossed onto the genetic background of the C57BL/6J (136) inbred mouse strain, which normally carries a Mus musculus-derived Y chromosome. While the sex reversal has been assumed to involve strain-specific variations in structure or expression of Sry, the actual cause has not been identified. Here we used in situ hybridization to study expression of Sry, and the critical downstream gene Sox9, in strains containing different chromosome combinations to investigate the cause of B6-Y-DOM sex reversal. Our findings establish that a delay of expression of Sry(DOM) relative to Sry(B6) underlies B6-Y-DOM sex reversal and provide the first molecular confirmation that Sry must act during a critical time window to appropriately activate Sox9 and effect male testis determination before the onset of the ovarian-determining pathway. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.