Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence

Effect of Rosiglitazone on Insulin Sensitivity and Body Composition in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Objective: To investigate the effects of rosiglitazone (RSG) on insulin sensitivity and regional adiposity (including intrahepatic fat) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research Methods and Procedures: We examined the effect of RSG (8 mg/day, 2 divided doses) compared with placebo on insulin sensitivity and body composition in 33 type 2 diabetic patients. Measurements of insulin sensitivity (euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp), body fat (abdominal magnetic resonance imaging and DXA), and liver fat (magnetic resonance spectroscopy) were taken at baseline and repeated after 16 weeks of treatment. Results: There was a significant improvement in glycemic control (glycosylated hemoglobin -0.7 +/- 0.7%, p less than or equal to 0.05) and an 86% increase in insulin sensitivity in the RSG group (glucose-disposal rate change from baseline: 17.5 +/- 14.5 mumol glucose/min/kg free fat mass, P < 0.05), but no significant change in the placebo group compared with baseline. Total body weight and fat mass increased (p &LE; 0.05) with RSG (2.1 +/- 2.0 kg and 1.4 +/- 1.6 kg, respectively) with 95% of the increase in adiposity occurring in nonabdominal regions. In the abdominal region, RSG increased subcutaneous fat area by 8% (25.0 +/- 28.7 cm(2), p = 0.02), did not alter intra-abdominal fat area, and reduced intrahepatic fat levels by 45% (-6.7 +/- 9.7%, concentration relative to water). Discussion: Our data indicate that RSG greatly improves insulin sensitivity in patients with type 2 diabetes and is associated with an increase in adiposity in subcutaneous but not visceral body regions.

Long-term oral sensitivity and feeding skills of low-risk pre-term infants

This study examined the oral sensitivity and feeding skills of low-risk pre-term infants at 11-17 months corrected age. Twenty pre-term infants (PT) born between 32 and 37 weeks at birth without any medical comorbidities were assessed. All of this PT group received supplemental nasogastric (NG) tube feeds during their birth-stay in hospital. A matched control group of 10 healthy full-term infants (FT) was also assessed. Oral sensitivity and feeding skills were assessed during a typical mealtime using the Royal Children's Hospital Oral Sensitivity Checklist (OSC) and the Pre-Speech Assessment Scale (PSAS). Results demonstrated that, at 11-17 months corrected age, the PT group displayed significantly more behaviours suggestive of altered oral sensitivity and facial defensiveness, and a trend of more delayed feeding development than the FT group. Further, results demonstrated that, relative to the FT group, pre-term infants who received greater than 3 weeks of NG feeding (PT>3NG) displayed significantly more facial defensive behaviour, and displayed significant delays across more aspects of their feeding development than pre-term infants who received less than 2 weeks of NG feeding (PT

Hearing sensitivity and bone mineral density in older adults: the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study

Bone mineral density (BMD) may be associated with hearing loss in older adults. Demineralization of the cochlear capsule has been associated with hearing loss in those with Paget's disease of the bone and otosclerosis. Osteoporosis may also result in cochlear capsule demineralization. We hypothesized that lower hip BMD and lower heel ultrasound measurements would be associated with hearing loss in a population-based sample of 2,089 older black and white men and women. Bone parameters and hearing function were measured at the fourth clinical follow-up visit. Audiometric threshold testing was used to measure air- and bone-conduction hearing sensitivity. BMD of the hip and its subregions was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Calcaneal bone measurements [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and the quantitative ultrasound index (QUI)] were obtained using heel ultrasound. After adjusting for known hearing loss risk factors, no association was found between hearing and any of the bone measurements in whites and black women. In black men, however, lower hip BMD was associated with higher odds of hearing loss; for each standard deviation decrease in total hip BMD, the odds of hearing loss were 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.08, 1.83), 1.39 (95% CI 1.07, 1.82) for femoral neck BMD and 1.65 (95% CI 1.26, 2.16) for trochanter BMD. Conductive hearing loss was associated with lower heel ultrasound measurements, though only among white men. The results of this study are mixed and inconclusive. Lower BMD of the hip and its subregions was associated with hearing loss among black men, but not among whites or black women. Lower measurements on heel ultrasound were associated with conductive hearing loss, though only among white men. These results suggest that axial and appendicular bone parameters may be modestly associated with hearing loss in older men, but not in women.

Detection sensitivity and quantitation of Plasmodium falciparum var gene transcripts by real-time RT-PCR in comparison with conventional RT-PCR

Antigenic variation in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1, caused by a switch in transcription of the encoding var gene, is an important feature of malaria. In this study, we quantified the relative abundance of var gene transcripts present in P. falciparum parasite clones using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and conventional RT-PCR combined with cloning and sequencing, with the aim of directly comparing the results obtained. When there was sufficient abundance of RNA for the real-time RT-PCR assay to be operating within the region of good reproducibility, RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR tended to identify the same dominant transcript, although some transcript-specific issues were identified. When there were differences in the estimated relative amounts of minor transcripts, the RT-PCR assay tended to produce higher estimates than real-time RT-PCR. These results provide valuable information comparing RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR analysis of samples with small quantities of RNA as might be expected in the analysis of field or clinical samples.

A multilevel analysis of BIS sensitivity and negative affect during skill acquisition

This Study examined the muldlevel reladonships among negadve affect Behavioural Inhibidon System (BIS) Sensidvit)' and performance. It also invesdgated whether the reladonship among these variables changed across pracdce. Pardcipants performed muldple trials of a simulated air traffic control task, A single measure of BIS was taken before pracdce, while negadve affect and performance were measured at repeated intervals. As expected, negadve affect was detrimental to performance at both a between-person and withinperson level, BIS was also found to be detrimental to performance. Contrary' to expectadons, the reladonship between BIS and performance was not mediated by overall levels of negadve affect. As predicted, the effects of overall levels of negadve affect and BIS strengthened across pracdce as pardcipants gained task knowledge and skill. The findings of this study are interpreted using resource allocadon theor}' and the implicadons for skiU acquisidon discussed.

Double cross-validation and improved sensitivity of the rapid screen of mild traumatic brain injury

This study aimed to replicate and cross-validate the Rapid Screen of Concussion (RSC) for diagnosing mild TBI (mTBI). One hundred (81 male, 19 female) cases of mTBI and 35 (23 male and 12 female) cases of orthopaedic injuries were tested within 24 hr of injury. Double cross-validation was used to examine whether total RSC scores obtained in the cur-rent sample, generalised to one previously reported. In the new sample, mTBI patients answered fewer orientation questions, recalled fewer words on the learning trial and after a delay, judged fewer sentences in 2 min, and completed fewer symbols in the Digit Symbol Substitution Test than orthopaedic controls. The formulae and cut-offs developed on the original and new samples produced similar sensitivity and overall correct classification rates. Inclusion of the Digit Symbol Substitution Test performance of the new sample improved the sensitivity (80.2%) and specificity (82.6%) in males. It did not improve the correct classification rate in females, which was 89.5% sensitivity and 91.7% specificity before the inclusion of the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Taken together, these results indicate that a combined score on this 12-min screen yields a measure of level of brain impairment up to 24 hr after mTBI.