Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Community-based programmes to prevent pedestrian injuries in children 0-14 years: A systematic review

Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing pedestrian injury in children 0-14 years of age. A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study; target population was children under 14 years; outcome measure is either pedestrian injury rates or observed child pedestrian or vehicle driver behaviour; and use of a community control or an historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies.

Community-based interventions for the prevention of burns and scalds in children

Background Burns and scalds are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in children. Successful counter-measures to prevent burn and scald-related injury have been identified. However, evidence indicating the successful roll-out of these counter-measures into the wider community is lacking. Community-based interventions in the form of multi-strategy, multi-focused programmes are hypothesised to result in a reduction in population-wide injury rates. This review tests this hypothesis with regards to burn and scald injury in children. Objectives To assess the effects of community-based interventions, defined as coordinated, multi-strategy initiatives, for reducing burns and scalds in children aged 14 years and under. Search strategy We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group's specialised register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, National Research Register and the Web of Knowledge. We also handsearched selected journals and checked the reference lists of selected publications. The searches were last updated in May 2007. Selection criteria Included studies were those that reported changes in medically attended burn and scald-related injury rates in a paediatric population (aged 14 years and under), following the implementation of a controlled community-based intervention. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently assess studies for eligibility and extracted data. Due to heterogeneity between the included studies, a pooled analysis was not appropriate. Main results Of 39 identified studies, four met the criteria for inclusion. Two of the included studies reported a significant decrease in paediatric burn and scald injury in the intervention compared with the control communities. The failure of the other two studies to show a positive result may have been due to limited time-frame for the intervention and/or failure to adequately implement the counter-measures in the communities. Authors' conclusions There are a very limited number of research studies allowing conclusions to be drawn about the effectiveness of community-based injury prevention programmes to prevent burns and scalds in children. There is a pressing need to evaluate high-quality community-based intervention programmes based on efficacious counter-measures to reduce burns and scalds in children. It is important that a framework for considering the problem of burns and scalds in children from a prevention perspective be articulated, and that an evidence-based suite of interventions be combined to create programme guidelines suitable for implementation in communities throughout the world.

Viscosupplementation for the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee (Review)

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent chronic joint disorder worldwide and is associated with significant pain and disability. Objectives To assess the effects of viscosupplementation in the treatment of OA of the knee. The products were hyaluronan and hylan derivatives (Adant, Arthrum H, Artz (Artzal, Supartz), BioHy (Arthrease, Euflexxa, Nuflexxa), Durolane, Fermathron, Go-On, Hyalgan, Hylan G-F 20 (Synvisc Hylan G-F 20), Hyruan, NRD-101 (Suvenyl), Orthovisc, Ostenil, Replasyn, SLM-10, Suplasyn, Synject and Zeel compositum). Search strategy MEDLINE (up to January (week 1) 2006 for update), EMBASE, PREMEDLINE, Current Contents up to July 2003, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched. Specialised journals and reference lists of identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and pertinent review articles up to December 2005 were handsearched. Selection criteria RCTs of viscosupplementation for the treatment of people with a diagnosis of OA of the knee were eligible. Single and double-blinded studies, placebo-based and comparative studies were eligible. At least one of the four OMERACT III core set outcome measures had to be reported (Bellamy 1997). Data collection and analysis Each trial was assessed independently by two reviewers for its methodological quality using a validated tool. All data were extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer. Continuous outcome measures were analysed as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). However, where different scales were used to measure the same outcome, standardized mean differences (SMD) were used. Dichotomous outcomes were analyzed by relative risk (RR). Main results Seventy-six trials with a median quality score of 3 (range 1 to 5) were identified. Follow-up periods varied between day of last injection and eighteen months. Forty trials included comparisons of hyaluronan/hylan and placebo (saline or arthrocentesis), ten trials included comparisons of intra-articular (IA) corticosteroids, six trials included comparisons of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), three trials included comparisons of physical therapy, two trials included comparisons of exercise, two trials included comparisons of arthroscopy, two trials included comparisons of conventional treatment, and fifteen trials included comparisons of other hyaluronans/hylan. The pooled analyses of the effects of viscosupplements against 'placebo' controls generally supported the efficacy of this class of intervention. In these same analyses, differential efficacy effects were observed for different products on different variables and at different timepoints. Of note is the 5 to 13 week post injection period which showed a percent improvement from baseline of 28 to 54% for pain and 9 to 32% for function. In general, comparable efficacy was noted against NSAIDs and longer-term benefits were noted in comparisons against IA corticosteroids. In general, few adverse events were reported in the hyaluronan/hylan trials included in these analyses. Authors' conclusions Based on the aforementioned analyses, viscosupplementation is an effective treatment for OA of the knee with beneficial effects: on pain, function and patient global assessment; and at different post injection periods but especially at the 5 to 13 week post injection period. It is of note that the magnitude of the clinical effect, as expressed by the WMD and standardised mean difference (SMD) from the RevMan 4.2 output, is different for different products, comparisons, timepoints, variables and trial designs. However, there are few randomised head-to-head comparisons of different viscosupplements and readers should be cautious, therefore, in drawing conclusions regarding the relative value of different products. The clinical effect for some products, against placebo, on some variables at some timepoints is in the moderate to large effect-size range. Readers should refer to relevant tables to review specific detail given the heterogeneity in effects across the product class and some discrepancies observed between the RevMan 4.2 analyses and the original publications. Overall, the analyses performed are positive for the HA class and particularly positive for some products with respect to certain variables and timepoints, such as pain on weight bearing at 5 to 13 weeks postinjection. In general, sample-size restrictions preclude any definitive comment on the safety of the HA class of products; however, within the constraints of the trial designs employed no major safety issues were detected. In some analyses viscosupplements were comparable in efficacy to systemic forms of active intervention, with more local reactions but fewer systemic adverse events. In other analyses HA products had more prolonged effects than IA corticosteroids. Overall, the aforementioned analyses support the use of the HA class of products in the treatment of knee OA.

A report of a national mutation testing service for the MEN1 gene: clinical presentations and implications for mutation testing

Introduction: Mutation testing for the MEN1 gene is a useful method to diagnose and predict individuals who either have or will develop multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 ( MEN 1). Clinical selection criteria to identify patients who should be tested are needed, as mutation analysis is costly and time consuming. This study is a report of an Australian national mutation testing service for the MEN1 gene from referred patients with classical MEN 1 and various MEN 1- like conditions. Results: All 55 MEN1 mutation positive patients had a family history of hyperparathyroidism, had hyperparathyroidism with one other MEN1 related tumour, or had hyperparathyroidism with multiglandular hyperplasia at a young age. We found 42 separate mutations and six recurring mutations from unrelated families, and evidence for a founder effect in five families with the same mutation. Discussion: Our results indicate that mutations in genes other than MEN1 may cause familial isolated hyperparathyroidism and familial isolated pituitary tumours. Conclusions: We therefore suggest that routine germline MEN1 mutation testing of all cases of classical'' MEN1, familial hyperparathyroidism, and sporadic hyperparathyroidism with one other MEN1 related condition is justified by national testing services. We do not recommend routine sequencing of the promoter region between nucleotides 1234 and 1758 ( Genbank accession no. U93237) as we could not detect any sequence variations within this region in any familial or sporadic cases of MEN1 related conditions lacking a MEN1 mutation. We also suggest that testing be considered for patients < 30 years old with sporadic hyperparathyroidism and multigland hyperplasia

Community-based programmes to prevent falls in children: A systematic review

Objective: We systematically reviewed the literature to examine the evidence for the effectiveness of community-based interventions to reduce fall-related injury in children aged 0-16 years. Methods: We performed a comprehensive search of the literature using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study; target population was children aged 0-16 years; outcome measure was fall-related injury rates; and either a community control or historical control was used in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction were guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Results: Only six studies fitting the inclusion criteria were identified in our search and only two of these used a trial design with a contemporary community control. Neither of the high quality evaluation studies showed an effect from the intervention and while authors of the remaining studies reported effective falls prevention programmes, the pre- and post-intervention design, uncontrolled for background secular trends, makes causal inferences from these studies difficult. Conclusion: There is a paucity of research studies from which evidence regarding the effectiveness of community-based intervention programmes for the prevention of fall-related injury in children could be based.

Effectiveness of topical skin care provided in aged care facilities

Background The 2001 Australian census revealed that adults aged 65 years and over constituted 12.6% of the population, up from 12.1% in 1996. It is projected that this figure will rise to 21% or 5.1 million Australians by 2031. In 1998, 6% (134 000) of adults in Australia aged 65 years and over were residing in nursing homes or hostels and this number is also expected to rise. As skin ages, there is a decreased turnover and replacement of epidermal skin cells, a thinning subcutaneous fat layer and a reduced production of protective oils. These changes can affect the normal functions of the skin such as its role as a barrier to irritants and pathogens, temperature and water regulation. Generally, placement in a long-term care facility indicates an inability of the older person to perform all of the activities of daily living such as skin care. Therefore, skin care management protocols should be available to reduce the likelihood of skin irritation and breakdown and ultimately promote comfort of the older person. Objectives The objective of this review was to determine the best available evidence for the effectiveness and safety of topical skin care regimens for older adults residing in long-term aged care facilities. The primary outcome was the incidence of adverse skin conditions with patient satisfaction considered as a secondary outcome. Search strategy A literature search was performed using the following databases: PubMed (NLM) (1966–4/2003), Embase (1966–4/2003), CINAHL (1966–4/2003), Current Contents (1993–4/2003), Cochrane Library (1966–2/2003), Web of Science (1995–12/2002), Science Citation Index Expanded and ProceedingsFirst (1993–12/2002). Health Technology Assessment websites were also searched. No language restrictions were applied. Selection criteria Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials, randomised and non-randomised controlled trials evaluating any non-medical intervention or program that aimed to maintain or improve the integrity of skin in older adults were considered for inclusion. Participants were 65 years of age or over and residing in an aged care facility, hospital or long-term care in the community. Studies were excluded if they evaluated pressure-relieving techniques for the prevention of skin breakdown. Data collection and analysis Two independent reviewers assessed study eligibility for inclusion. Study design and quality were tabulated and relative risks, odds ratios, mean differences and associated 95% confidence intervals were calculated from individual comparative studies containing count data. Results The resulting evidence of the effectiveness of topical skin care interventions was variable and dependent upon the skin condition outcome being assessed. The strongest evidence for maintenance of skin condition in incontinent patients found that disposable bodyworn incontinence protection reduced the odds of deterioration of skin condition compared with non-disposable bodyworns. The best evidence for non-pressure relieving topical skin care interventions on pressure sore formation found the no-rinse cleanser Clinisan to be more effective than soap and water at maintaining healthy skin (no ulcers) in elderly incontinent patients in long-term care. The quality of studies examining the effectiveness of topical skin care interventions on the incidence of skin tears was very poor and inconclusive. Topical skin care for prevention of dermatitis found that Sudocrem could reduce the redness of skin compared with zinc cream if applied regularly after each pad change, but not the number of lesions. Topical skin care on dry skin found the Bag Bath/Travel Bath no-rinse skin care cleanser to be more effective at preventing overall skin dryness and most specifically flaking and scaling when compared with the traditional soap and water washing method in residents of a long-term care facility. Information on the safety of topical skin care interventions is lacking. Therefore, because of the lack of evidence, no recommendation on the safety on any intervention included in this review can be made.

Community-based programs to promote care seat restraints in children 0-16 years - A systematic review

Study Objective: Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing injury due to inadequate car seat restraint use in children 0-16 years of age. Methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study: target population was children aged 0-16 years of age; outcome measure was either injury rates due to motor vehicle crashes or observed changes in child restraint use; and use of community control or historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies. Results: This review found eight studies, that met all the inclusion criteria. In the studies that measured injury outcomes, significant reductions in risk of motor vehicle occupant injury (33-55%) were reported in the study communities. For those studies reporting observed car seat restraint use the community-based programs were successful in increasing toddler restraint use in 1-5 year aged children by up to 11%; child booster seat use in 4-8 year aged children by up to 13%; rear restraint use in children aged 0-15 years by 8%; a 50% increase in restraint use in pre-school aged children in a high-risk community; and a 44% increase in children aged 5-11 years. Conclusion: While this review highlights that there is some evidence to support the effectiveness of community-based programs to promote car restraint use and/or motor vehicle occupant injury, limitations in the evaluation methodologies of the studies requires the results to be interpreted with caution. There is clearly a need for further high quality program evaluation research to develop an evidence base. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How can experience in clinical and community settings contribute to early medical education? A BEME systematic review

Review date: Review period January 1992-December 2001. Final analysis July 2004-January 2005. Background and review context: There has been no rigorous systematic review of the outcomes of early exposure to clinical and community settings in medical education. Objectives of review: (1) Identify published empirical evidence of the effects of early experience in medical education, analyse it, and synthesize conclusions from it. (2) Identify the strengths and limitations of the research effort to date, and identify objectives for future research. Search strategy: Ovid search of. BEI, ERIC, Medline, CIATAHL and EMBASE Additional electronic searches of: Psychinfo, Timelit, EBM reviews, SIGLE, and the Cochrane databases. Hand-searches of: Medical Education, Medical Teacher, Academic Medicine, Teaching and Learning in Medicine, Advances in Health Sciences Education, Journal of Educational Psychology. Criteria: Definitions: Experience: Authentic (real as opposed to simulated) human contact in a social or clinical context that enhances learning of health, illness and/or disease, and the role of the health professional. Early: What would traditionally have been regarded as the preclinical phase, usually the first 2 years. Inclusions: All empirical studies (verifiable, observational data) of early experience in the basic education of health professionals, whatever their design or methodology, including papers not in English. Evidence from other health care professions that could be applied to medicine was included. Exclusions: Not empirical; not early; post-basic; simulated rather than 'authentic' experience. Data collection: Careful validation of selection processes. Coding by two reviewers onto an extensively modified version of the standard BEME coding sheet. Accumulation into an Access database. Secondary coding and synthesis of an interpretation. Headline results: A total of 73 studies met the selection criteria and yielded 277 educational outcomes; 116 of those outcomes (from 38 studies) were rated strong and important enough to include in a narrative synthesis of results; 76% of those outcomes were from descriptive studies and 24% from comparative studies. Early experience motivated and satisfied students of the health professions and helped them acclimatize to clinical environments, develop professionally, interact with patients with more confidence and less stress, develop self-reflection and appraisal skill, and develop a professional identity. It strengthened their learning and made it more real and relevant to clinical practice. It helped students learn about the structure and function of the healthcare system, and about preventive care and the role of health professionals. It supported the learning of both biomedical and behavioural/social sciences and helped students acquire communication and basic clinical skills. There were outcomes for beneficiaries other than students, including teachers, patients, populations, organizations and specialties. Early experience increased recruitment to primary care/rural medical practice, though mainly in US studies which introduced it for that specific purpose as part of a complex intervention. Conclusions: Early experience helps medical students socialize to their chosen profession. It. helps them acquire a range of subject matter and makes their learning more real and relevant. It has potential benefits for other stakeholders, notably teachers and patients. It can influence career choices.

Morphology of breast cancer as a means of triage of patients for BRCA1 genetic testing

Background: Women who have germline mutations in the BRCA1 gene are at substantially increased lifetime risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer but are otherwise normal. Currently. early age of onset of cancer and a strong family history are relied upon as the chief clues as to who should be offered genetic testing. Certain morphologic and immunohistochemical features are overrepresented in BRCA1-associated breast cancers but these differences have not been incorporated into the current selection criteria for genetic testing. Design: Each of the 4 pathologists studied 30 known cases of BRCA1- and BRCA2-associated breast cancer from kConFab families. After reviewing the literature, we agreed on a semiquantitative scoring system for estimating the chances of presence of an underlying BRCA1 mutation, based on the number of the reported prototypic features present. After a time lag of 12 months, we each examined a series of 62 deidentified cases of breast cancer, inclusive of cases of BRCA1-associated breast cancer and controls. The controls included cases of BRCA2-associated breast cancer and sporadic cases. Results: Our predictions had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 86%, positive predictive value of 61%, and negative predictive value of 98%. For comparison the sensitivity of currently used selection criteria are in the range of 25% to 30%. Conclusion: The inclusion of morphologic and immunohistochemical features of breast cancers in algorithms to predict the likelihood of presence of germline mutations in the BRCA1 gene improves the accuracy of the selection process.

Detection of fruit and the selection of primate visual pigments for color vision

Primates have X chromosome genes for cone photopigments with sensitivity maxima from 535 to 562 nm. Old World monkeys and apes (catarrhines) and the New World ( platyrrhine) genus Alouatta have separate genes for 535-nm ( medium wavelength; M) and 562-nm ( long wavelength; L) pigments. These pigments, together with a 425-nm ( short wavelength) pigment, permit trichromatic color vision. Other platyrrhines and prosimians have a single X chromosome gene but often with alleles for two or three M/L photopigments. Consequently, heterozygote females are trichromats, but males and homozygote females are dichromats. The criteria that affect the evolution of M/L alleles and maintain genetic polymorphism remain a puzzle, but selection for finding food may be important. We compare different types of color vision for detecting more than 100 plant species consumed by tamarins ( Saguinus spp.) in Peru. There is evidence that both frequency-dependent selection on homozygotes and heterozygote advantage favor M/L polymorphism and that trichromatic color vision is most advantageous in dim light. Also, whereas the 562-nm allele is present in all species, the occurrence of 535- to 556-nm alleles varies between species. This variation probably arises because trichromatic color vision favors widely separated pigments and equal frequencies of 535/543- and 562-nm alleles, whereas in dichromats, long-wavelength pigment alleles are fitter.

Systematic selection of solvents for the fabrication of 3D combined macro- and microporous polymeric scaffolds for soft tissue engineering

In this study, we investigate the fabrication of 3D porous poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) scaffolds using the thermally-induced phase separation technique. The current study focuses on the selection of alternative solvents for this process using a number of criteria, including predicted solubility. toxicity, removability and processability. Solvents were removed via either vacuum freeze-drying or leaching, depending on their physical properties. The residual solvent was tested using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. A large range of porous, highly interconnected scaffold architectures with tunable pore size and alignment was obtained, including combined macro- and microporous structures and an entirely novel 'porous-fibre' structure. The morphological features of the most promising poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) scaffolds were analysed via scanning electron microscopy and X-ray micro-computed tomography in both two and three dimensions. The Young's moduli of the scaffolds under conditions of temperature, pH and ionic strength similar to those found in the body were tested and were found to be highly dependent on the architectures.