Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Systems for assessing the effectiveness of management in protected areas

Since the mid-1990s, numerous methodologies have been developed to assess the management effectiveness of protected areas, many tailored to particular regions or habitats. Recognizing the need for a generic approach, the World Commission on Protected Areas (WCPA) developed an evaluation framework allowing specific evaluation methodologies to be designed within a consistent overall approach. Twenty-seven assessment methodologies were analyzed in relation to this framework. Two types of data were identified: quantitative data derived from monitoring and qualitative data derived from scoring by managers and stakeholders. The distinction between methodologies based on data types reflects different approaches to assessing management. Few methodologies assess all the WCPA framework elements. More useful information for adaptive management will come from addressing all six elements. The framework can be used to adapt existing methodologies or to design new, more comprehensive methodologies for evaluation, using quantitative monitoring data, qualitative scoring data, or a combination of both.

Illusions in advanced cancer: The effect of belief systems and attitudes on quality of life

Patients with advanced cancer frequently express positive attitudes and can be unduly optimistic about the potential benefits of treatment. In order to evaluate an illusory domain in the context of advanced cancer, we developed a scale of will to live and characterized the beliefs that patients held about the curability of their cancer, and how committed they were to using alternative treatments. A measure of quality of life was used as the dependent variable in order to assess the association between these attributes. After a preliminary exploration confirmed the presence of an illusory domain, these concepts were prospectively tested in 149 ambulant patients with advanced cancer who attended for palliative systemic treatment, radiation treatment or supportive care. The scale of global quality of life was reliable (Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.72). The distribution of the scores of will to live was skewed, with no respondent scoring poorly, and the scale was reliable (Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.82). The scale of belief in curability showed diverse beliefs. In some cases, there was a discrepancy between respondents' beliefs in curability and what they believed to be the report by their doctors. There was also an association between a committed use of alternative treatments and a belief in the curability of the cancer (p

Risk stratification of patients with chronic kidney disease: Results of screening strategies incorporating clinical risk scoring and dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Cardiac disease is the principal cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ischemia at dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) is associated with adverse events in these patients. We sought the efficacy of combining clinical risk evaluation with DSE. Methods We allocated 244 patients with CKD (mean age 54 years, 140 men, 169 dialysis-dependent at baseline) into low- and high-risk groups based on two disease-specific scores and the Framingham risk model. All underwent DSE and were further stratified according to DSE results. Patients were followed over 20 +/- 14 months for events (death, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome). Results There were 49 deaths and 32 cardiac events. Using the different clinical scores, allocation of high risk varied from 34% to 79% of patients, and 39% to 50% of high-risk patients had an abnormal DSE. In the high-risk groups, depending on the clinical score chosen, 25% to 44% with an abnormal DSE had a cardiac event, compared with 8% to 22% with a.normal DSE. Cardiac events occurred in 2.0%, 3.1 %, and 9.7% of the low-risk patients, using the two disease-specific and Framingham scores, respectively, and DSE results did not add to risk evaluation in this subgroup. Independent DSE predictors of cardiac events were a lower resting diastolic blood pressure, angina during the test, and the combination of ischemia with resting left ventricular dysfunction. Conclusion In CKD patients, high-risk findings by DSE can predict outcome. A stepwise strategy of combining clinical risk scores with DSE for CAD screening in CKD reduces the number of tests required and identifies a high-risk subgroup among whom DSE results more effectively stratify high and low risk.

Hydrostability and Scaling Up Molecular Sieve Silica (MSS) Membranes for H2/CO Separation in Fuel Cell Systems

MSS membranes are a good candidate for CO cleanup in fuel cell fuel processing systems due to their ability to selectively permeate H2 over CO via molecular sieving. Successfully scaled up tubular membranes were stable under dry conditions to 400°C with H2 permeance as high as 2 x 10-6 mol.m-2.s^-1.Pa^-1 at 200 degrees C and H2/CO selectivity up to 6.4, indicating molecular sieving was the dominant mechanism. A novel carbonised template molecular sieve silica (CTMSS) technology gave the scaled up membranes resilience in hydrothermal conditions up to 400 degrees C in 34% steam and synthetic reformate, which is required for use in fuel cell CO cleanup systems.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Entangled States and Collective Nonclassical Effects in Two-Atom Systems

We propose a review of recent developments on entanglement and nonclassical effects in collective two-atom systems and present a uniform physical picture of the many predicted phenomena. The collective effects have brought into sharp focus some of the most basic features of quantum theory, such as nonclassical states of light and entangled states of multiatom systems. The entangled states are linear superpositions of the internal states of the system which cannot be separated into product states of the individual atoms. This property is recognized as entirely quantum-mechanical effect and have played a crucial role in many discussions of the nature of quantum measurements and, in particular, in the developments of quantum communications. Much of the fundamental interest in entangled states is connected with its practical application ranging from quantum computation, information processing, cryptography, and interferometry to atomic spectroscopy.

Doubling and Tripling Constructions for Defining Sets in Steiner Triple Systems

A minimal defining set of a Steiner triple system on a points (STS(v)) is a partial Steiner triple system contained in only this STS(v), and such that any of its proper subsets is contained in at least two distinct STS(v)s. We consider the standard doubling and tripling constructions for STS(2v + 1) and STS(3v) from STS(v) and show how minimal defining sets of an STS(v) gives rise to minimal defining sets in the larger systems. We use this to construct some new families of defining sets. For example, for Steiner triple systems on, 3" points; we construct minimal defining sets of volumes varying by as much as 7(n-/-).

Increased apoptosis of T lymphocytes and macrophages in the central and peripheral nervous systems of Lewis rats with experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis treated with dexamethasone

Using light and electron microscopic histological and immunocytochemical techniques, we investigated the effects of the glucocorticoid dexamethasone on T cell and macrophage apoptosis in the central nervous system (CNS) and peripheral nervous system (PNS) of Lewis rats with acute experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) induced with myelin basic protein (MBP). A single subcutaneous injection of dexamethasone markedly augmented T cell and macrophage apoptosis in the CNS and PNS and microglial apoptosis in the CNS within 6 hours (h). Pre-embedding immunolabeling revealed that dexamethasone increased the number of apoptotic CD5+ cells (T cells or activated B cells), αβ T cells, and CD11b+ cells (macrophages/microglia) in the meninges, perivascular spaces, and CNS parenchyma. The induction of increased apoptosis was dose-dependent. Daily dexamethasone treatment suppressed the neurological signs of EAE. However, the daily injection of a dose of dexamethasone (0.25 mg/kg). which, after a single dose, did not induce increased apoptosis in the CNS or PNS, was as effective in inhibiting the neurological signs of EAE as the high dose (4 mg/kg), which induced a marked increase in apoptosis. This indicates that the beneficial clinical effect of glucocorticoid therapy in EAE does not depend on the induction of increased apoptosis. The daily administration of dexamethasone for 5 days induced a relapse that commenced 5 days after cessation of treatment, with the severity of the relapse tending to increase with dexamethasone dosage.

Periodic or Bounded Solutions of Carathéodory Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

In this paper we extend the guiding function approach to show that there are periodic or bounded solutions for first order systems of ordinary differential equations of the form x1 =f(t,x), a.e. epsilon[a,b], where f satisfies the Caratheodory conditions. Our results generalize recent ones of Mawhin and Ward.

On the applicability of the Aris' equivalent sphere in multicomponent reacting systems

The validity of the concept of equivalent sphere introduced by Aris in 1957 to multicomponent reacting systems is investigated in this paper. A network of C6 hydrocarbon reforming reaction and a fixed bed reactor are taken as the model reaction network and the reactor configuration, respectively.