Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Deconvolving the delta O-18 seawater component from subseasonal coral delta O-18 and Sr/Ca at Rarotonga in the southwestern subtropical Pacific for the period 1726 to 1997

To reconstruct oceanographic variations in the subtropical South Pacific, 271-year long subseasonal time series of Sr/Ca and delta(18)O were generated from a coral growing at Rarotonga (21.5degreesS, 159.5degreesW). In this case, coral Sr/Ca appears to be an excellent proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and seawater delta(18)O composition (delta(18)O(sw)). Here, we focus on extracting the delta(18)O(sw) signal from these proxy records. A method is presented assuming that coral Sr/Ca is solely a function of SST and that coral delta(18)O is a function of both SST and delta(18)O(sw). This method separates the effects of delta(18)O(sw) from SST by breaking the instantaneous changes of coral delta(18)O into separate contributions by instantaneous SST and delta(18)O(sw) changes, respectively. The results show that on average delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga explains similar to39% of the variance in delta(18)O and that variations in SST explains the remaining similar to61% of delta(18)O variance. Reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) shows systematic increases in summer months (December-February) consistent with the regional pattern of variations in precipitation and evaporation. The delta(18)O(sw) also shows a positive linear correlation with satellite-derived estimated salinity for the period 1980 to 1997 (r = 0.72). This linear correlation between reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) and salinity makes it possible to use the reconstructed delta(18)O(sw) to estimate the past interannual and decadal salinity changes in this region. Comparisons of coral delta(18)O and delta(18)O(sw) at Rarotonga with the Pacific decadal oscillation index suggest that the decadal and interdecadal salinity and SST variability at Rarotonga appears to be related to basin-scale decadal variability in the Pacific. Copyright (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Synthesis of fructans by partially purified fructosyltransferase activities from Lolium rigidum

Sucrose:sucrose fructosyltransferase (SST) activity was partially purified from whole shoots of Lolium rigidum by a combination of affinity chromatography, gel filtration and anion-exchange chromatography. The SST activity co-eluted with some fructan:fructan fructosyltransferase (FFT) and invertase activities and consequently the partially purified preparation was termed the fructosyltransferase (FT) preparation. The SST-like activity in the FT preparation was purified 214-fold and had an apparent molecular mass of 84 000. The FT preparation contained several peptides with an apparent pI of 4.6-4.7. When assayed with sucrose concentrations up to 600 mM, the FT preparation synthesized 1-kestose at all concentrations, and synthesized 6-kestose at concentrations of 150 mM and greater. The K-m of 1-kestose production was 0.2 M. When the FT preparation was assayed at a concentration of activity approximately half that measured in fresh tissue with 100 mM sucrose, 1-kestose, or 6(G)-kestose as substrates, fructans of degree of polymerization (DP) less than or equal to 5 were synthesized. A partially purified FFT activity, free of SST and invertase activities, which synthesized beta-2,1-glycosidic linked oligofructans of DP less than or equal to 6, was combined in vitro with the FT preparation (FFT-FT preparation) to give a ratio of SST:FFT activities similar to that measured in crude enzyme extracts from L. rigidum. The FFT-FT preparation synthesized oligofructans when assayed with 100 mM concentrations of sucrose, 1-kestose or 6(G)-kestose, but was not able to synthesize fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 even after extended assays of up to 10 h. The FFT-FT preparation was also assayed with 100 mM sucrose with small amounts of concentrated sucrose added periodically during the assay to maintain the substrate concentration. In this assay, the FFT-FT preparation synthesized fructans up to an apparent DP of 17 or greater. The fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 synthesized in the assay appeared to form two molecular series containing both beta-2,1- and beta-2,6-glycosidic linked fructosyl residues with terminal or internal glucosyl residues. The apparent rate of SST activity in the assay of the FFT-FT preparation was greater than that measured in a similar assay of the FT preparation alone which did not result in fructans with DP greater than or equal to 6. It was concluded that the FFT-FT preparation, when assayed with a continual supply of sucrose, contained a factor which promoted synthesis of fructans of DP greater than or equal to 6 and synthesis of beta-2,B-glycosidic linkages between fructosyl residues.