How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data

This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.

Using the level set method to model endogenous lava dome growth

Modeling volcanic phenomena is complicated by free-surfaces often supporting large rheological gradients. Analytical solutions and analogue models provide explanations for fundamental characteristics of lava flows. But more sophisticated models are needed, incorporating improved physics and rheology to capture realistic events. To advance our understanding of the flow dynamics of highly viscous lava in Peléean lava dome formation, axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method (FEM) models of generic endogenous dome growth have been developed. We use a novel technique, the level-set method, which tracks a moving interface, leaving the mesh unaltered. The model equations are formulated in an Eulerian framework. In this paper we test the quality of this technique in our numerical scheme by considering existing analytical and experimental models of lava dome growth which assume a constant Newtonian viscosity. We then compare our model against analytical solutions for real lava domes extruded on Soufrière, St. Vincent, W.I. in 1979 and Mount St. Helens, USA in October 1980 using an effective viscosity. The level-set method is found to be computationally light and robust enough to model the free-surface of a growing lava dome. Also, by modeling the extruded lava with a constant pressure head this naturally results in a drop in extrusion rate with increasing dome height, which can explain lava dome growth observables more appropriately than when using a fixed extrusion rate. From the modeling point of view, the level-set method will ultimately provide an opportunity to capture more of the physics while benefiting from the numerical robustness of regular grids.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Common E protein determinants for attenuation of glycosaminoglycan-binding variants of Japanese encephalitis and West Nile viruses

Natural isolates and laboratory strains of West Nile virus (WNV) and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) were attenuated for neuroinvasiveness in mouse models for flavivirus encephalitis by serial passage in human adenocarcinoma (SW13) cells. The passage variants displayed a small-plaque phenotype, augmented affinity for heparin-Sepharose, and a marked increase in specific infectivity for SW13 cells relative to the respective parental viruses, while the specific infectivity for Vero cells was not altered. Therefore, host cell adaptation of passage variants was most likely a consequence of altered receptor usage for virus attachment-entry with the involvement of cell surface glycosaminoglycans (GAG) in this process. In vivo blood clearance kinetics of the passage variants was markedly faster and viremia was reduced relative to the parental viruses, suggesting that affinity for GAG (ubiquitously present on cell surfaces and extracellular matrices) is a key determinant for the neuroinvasiveness of encephalitic flaviviruses. A difference in pathogenesis between WNV and JEV, which was reflected in more efficient growth in the spleen and liver of the WNV parent and passage variants, accounted for a less pronounced loss of neuroinvasiveness of GAG binding variants of WNV than JEV. Single gain-of-net-positive-charge amino acid changes at E protein residue 49, 138, 306, or 389/390, putatively positioned in two clusters on the virion surface, define molecular determinants for GAG binding and concomitant virulence attenuation that are shared by the JEV serotype flaviviruses.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Determinants of glomerular volume in different cortical zones of the human kidney

Enlarged glomerular size is a feature of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, obesity-related glomerulopathy, diabetic nephropathy, and hypertension. The distribution of glomerular volumes within different cortical zones and glomerular volume alterations with age and obesity may contribute to understanding the evolution of these diseases. We analyzed the distributions of volumes of individual glomeruli in the superficial, middle, and juxtamedullary cortex of normal human kidneys using the disector/Cavalieri method. Volumes (V-glom) of 720 nonsclerotic glomeruli (30 per kidney, 10 per zone) were estimated in autopsy kidneys of 24 American men, 12 aged 20 to 30 yr and 12 aged 51 to 69 yr. Black and white individuals were represented equally. The range of individual V-glom within subjects varied from two- to eight-fold. There were no significant zonal differences in V-glom in the young or those with body surface area (BSA) <= 2.11 m(2). In contrast, superficial glomeruli in the older age group, in those with BSA > 2.11 m(2), and in white subjects were significantly larger than juxtamedullary glomeruli. Black subjects tended toward larger V-glom than white subjects, and this difference was significant and most marked in the juxtamedullary zone and independent of age, BSA, and glomerular number. There is a wide range in individual V-glom in adults. BSA, race, and age independently influence V-glom different zones of the renal cortex. These findings might reflect processes of aging and susceptibility factors to renal disease.

Characterization of the transcriptional and functional effects of fibroblast growth factor-1 on human preadipocyte differentiation

We recently established that fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-1 promotes adipogenesis of primary human preadipocytes (phPA). In the current report, we have characterized the adipogenic effects of FGF-1 in phPA and also in a human PA strain derived from an individual with Simpson-Golabi-Behmel syndrome (SGBS PA), which exhibit an intrinsic capacity to differentiate with high efficiency. In further studies, we compared these models with the well-characterized murine 3T3-L1 preadipocyte cell line (3T3-L1 PA). FGF-1 up-regulated the adipogenic program in phPA, with increased expression of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma in confluent PA prior to induction of differentiation and increased expression of adipocyte markers during differentiation. Moreover, phPA differentiated in the presence of FGF-1 were more insulin responsive and secreted increased levels of adiponectin. FGF-1 treatment of SGBS PA further enhanced differentiation. For the most part, the adipogenic program in phPA paralleled that observed in 3T3-L1 PA; however, we found no evidence of mitotic clonal expansion in the phPA. Finally, we investigated a role for extracellular regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK 1/2) in adipogenesis of phPA. FGF-1 induced robust phosphorylation of ERK1/2 in early differentiation and inhibition of ERK1/2 activity significantly reduced phPA differentiation. These data suggest that FGF-1 treated phPA represent a valuable in vitro model for the study of adipogenesis and insulin action and indicate that ERK1/2 activation is necessary for human adipogenesis in the absence of mitotic clonal expansion.

Towards realistic simulations of lava dome growth using the level set method

The level set method has been implemented in a computational volcanology context. New techniques are presented to solve the advection equation and the reinitialisation equation. These techniques are based upon an algorithm developed in the finite difference context, but are modified to take advantage of the robustness of the finite element method. The resulting algorithm is tested on a well documented Rayleigh–Taylor instability benchmark [19], and on an axisymmetric problem where the analytical solution is known. Finally, the algorithm is applied to a basic study of lava dome growth.

Liquid distribution as a means to describing the granule growth mechanism

Copper concentrate (chalcopyrite) was granulated in a rotating drum with a diameter of 0.3 m and a length of 0.2 m. Water was used as the binder and it was sprayed onto the powder bed with a nozzle. This material exhibited induction type behaviour, which was defined by Iveson and Litster [AIChE J. 44 (1998) 1510]. Induction type behaviour is characterized by the occurrence of an induction stage, during which the granules are gradually being compacted and little or no growth occurs. At the end of this induction stage, binder liquid is squeezed from the interior of the granules onto the granule surface and the granules are then surface-wet. This results in a rapid growth rate of the granules. Different types of experiments were conducted. The influence of the nozzle pressure and the distance from the nozzle to the powder bed on the growth behaviour of the granules as well as on the binder distribution was examined. The results of these experiments led to the postulation of a modified mechanism for induction type behaviour: it was found that after the binder was delivered, there were large granules containing a high amount of binder and small granules containing less binder. During the induction stage, the granules are compacted and binder liquid continuously appears at the surface of the large granules. These wet spots that are continuously being formed pick up the dry and small granules. When all the small granules have been picked up, further expulsion of binder liquid onto the granules' surface results in granules that remain surface-wet. This phenomenon marks the end of the induction stage and it coincides with the disappearance of the small granules. The hypothesis was tested by selectively removing the smaller granules during an experiment. As expected, this resulted in a shorter induction time.

[beta]-Hydroxy-F128b-Methylbutyrate (HMB) Supplementation and the Promotion of Muscle Growth and Strength

[beta]-Hydroxy [beta]-methylbutyrate (HMB), a metabolite of the essential amino acid leucine, is one of the latest dietary supplements promoted to enhance gains in strength and lean body mass associated with resistance training. Unlike anabolic hormones that induce muscle hypertrophy by increasing muscle protein synthesis, HMB is claimed to influence strength and lean body mass by acting as an anticatabolic agent, minimising protein breakdown and damage to cells that may occur with intense exercise. Research on HMB has recently tested this hypothesis, under the assumption that it may be the active compound associated with the anticatabolic effects of leucine and its metabolites. While much of the available literature is preliminary in nature and not without methodological concern, there is support for the claims made regarding HMB supplementation, at least in young, previously untrained individuals. A mechanism by which this may occur is unknown, but research undertaken to date suggests there may be a reduction in skeletal muscle damage, although this has not been assessed directly. The response of resistance trained and older individuals to HMB administration is less clear. While the results of research conducted to date appear encouraging, caution must be taken when interpreting outcomes as most manuscripts are presented in abstract form only, not having to withstand the rigors of peer review. Of the literature reviewed relating to HMB administration during resistance training, only 2 papers are full manuscripts appearing in peer reviewed journals. The remaining 8 papers are published as abstracts only, making it difficult to critically review the research. There is clearly a need for more tightly controlled, longer duration studies to verify if HMB enhances strength and muscular hypertrophy development associated with resistance training across a range of groups, including resistance trained individuals.

Growth of Bose-Einstein condensates from thermal vapor

We report on a quantitative study of the growth process of 87Rb Bose-Einstein condensates. By continuous evaporative cooling we directly control the thermal cloud from which the condensate grows. We compare the experimental data with the results of a theoretical model based on quantum kinetic theory. We find quantitative agreement with theory for the situation of strong cooling, whereas in the weak cooling regime a distinctly different behavior is found in the experiment.