(Review) Body mass index and risk of diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region

Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.

Speciation and absolute bioavailability: risk assessment of arsenic-contaminated sites in a residential suburb in Canberra

Watson is a fully developed suburb of some 30 years in Canberra (the capital city of Australia), A plunge dip using arsenical pesticides for tick control was operated there between 1946 and 1960, Chemical investigations revealed that many soil samples obtained from the study area contained levels of arsenic exceeding the current health-based investigation levels of 100 mg kg(-1) set by the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia, For the speciation study, nine composite samples of surface and sub-surface soils and a composite sample of rocks were selected. ICP-MS analysis showed that arsenic levels in these samples ranged from 32 to 1597 mg kg(-1), Chemical speciation of arsenic showed that the arsenite (trivalent) components were 0.32-56% in the soil and 44.8% in the rock composite samples. Using a rat model, the absolute bioavailability of these contaminated soils relative to As3+ or As5+ ranged from 1.02 to 9.87% and 0.26 to 2.98%, respectively, An attempt was made to develop a suitable leachate test as an index of bioavailability. However, the results indicated that there was no significant correlation between the bioavailability and leachates using neutral pH water or 1 M HCl. Our results indicate that speciation is highly significant for the interpretation of bioavailability and risk assessment data; the bioavailable fractions of arsenic in soils from Watson are small and therefore the health impact upon the environment and humans due to this element is limited.

Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Ten-year risk of first recurrent stroke and disability after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

Risk factors for post-stroke depression

Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Genetic Covariation between Serum {gamma}-Glutamyltransferase Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background: Several studies have shown that variation in serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in the population is associated with risk of death or development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, or hypertension. This association is only partly explained by associations between GGT and recognized risk factors. Our aim was to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental sources of variation in GGT as well as genetic and environmental sources of covariation between GGT and other liver enzymes and markers of cardiovascular risk in adult twin pairs. Methods: We recruited 1134 men and 2241 women through the Australian Twin Registry. Data were collected through mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews, and by analysis of blood samples. Sources of variation in GGT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and of covariation between GGT and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed by maximum-likelihood model-fitting. Results: Serum GGT, ALT, and AST were affected by additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors, with heritabilities estimated at 0.52, 0.48, and 0.32, respectively. One-half of the genetic variance in GGT was shared with ALT, AST, or both. There were highly significant correlations between GGT and body mass index; serum lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, and insulin; and blood pressure. These correlations were more attributable to genes that affect both GGT and known cardiovascular risk factors than to environmental factors. Conclusions: Variation in serum enzymes that reflect liver function showed significant genetic effects, and there was evidence that both genetic and environmental factors that affect these enzymes can also affect cardiovascular risk. (C) 2002 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.