A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal crossover designs for logistic regression models in pharmacodynamics

Pharmacodynamics (PD) is the study of the biochemical and physiological effects of drugs. The construction of optimal designs for dose-ranging trials with multiple periods is considered in this paper, where the outcome of the trial (the effect of the drug) is considered to be a binary response: the success or failure of a drug to bring about a particular change in the subject after a given amount of time. The carryover effect of each dose from one period to the next is assumed to be proportional to the direct effect. It is shown for a logistic regression model that the efficiency of optimal parallel (single-period) or crossover (two-period) design is substantially greater than a balanced design. The optimal designs are also shown to be robust to misspecification of the value of the parameters. Finally, the parallel and crossover designs are combined to provide the experimenter with greater flexibility.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Psychological distress among female sex workers

The prevalence and correlates of psychological distress were examined in a sample of 171 female sex workers in Queensland. It was found that 28 per cent were above the GHQ-28 threshold for mild psychiatric morbidity, a rate that is not appreciably different from that of women in the general community. The sample included only eight street sex workers, all of whom reported significant distress. Logistic regression analyses showed that a history of injecting drug use, an early age at leaving home and wanting to leave the sex industry were independent predictors of poor mental health. Distressed sex workers reported fewer sexual health examinations and less consistent condom use with their clients than those who were not distressed.

Arrhythmias and mortality after myocardial infarction in diabetic patients - Relationship to diabetes treatment

OBJECTIVE- To assess the relationship between clinical course after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and diabetes treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- Retrospective analysis of data from all patients aged 25-64 years admitted to hospitals in Perth, Australia, between 1985 and 1993 with AMI diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases (9th revision) criteria was conducted. Short- (28-day) and long-term survival and complications in diabetic and nondiabetic patients were compared. For diabetic patients, 28-day survival, dysrhythmias, heart block, and pulmonary edema were treated as outcomes, and factors related to each were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Diabetes treatment was added to the model to assess its significance. Long-term survival was compared by means of a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS- Of 5,715 patients, 745 (12.9%) were diabetic. Mortality at 28 days was 12.0 and 28.1% for nondiabetic and diabetic patients, respectively (P < 0.001); there were no significant drug effects in the diabetic group. Ventricular fibrillation in diabetic patients taking glibenclamide (11.8%) was similar to that of nondiabetic patients (11.0%) but was lower than that for those patients taking either gliclazide (18.0%; 0.1 > P > 0.05) or insulin (22.8%; P < 0.05). There were no other treatment-related differences in acute complications. Long-term survival in diabetic patients was reduced in those taking digitalis and/or diuretics but type of diabetes treatment at discharge had no significant association with outcome. CONCLUSlONS- These results do not suggest that ischemic heart disease should influence the choice of diabetes treatment regimen in general or of sulfonylurea drug in particular.

A case-control study of employment status and mortality in a cohort of Australian youth

Recent studies have demonstrated a link in young populations between unemployment and ill health. The purpose of this study is to correlate mortality with employment status in two cohorts of young Australian males, aged 17-25 years, from 1984 to 1988. Two youth cohorts consisting of an initially unemployed sample (n = 1424 males) and a population sample (n = 4573 males), were surveyed annually throughout the study period. Those lost to follow-up during the survey period were matched with death registries across Australia. Employment status was determined from weekly diaries and death certificates and was designated as: employed or student; unemployed; not in the work force (excluding students). Conditional logistic regression, using age- and cohort- matched cases (deaths) and controls (alive), was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of dying with regard to employment status, taking into account potential confounders such as ethnicity, aboriginality, educational attainment, pre-existing health problems, socio-economic status of parents, and other factors. Twenty three male survey respondents were positively matched to death registry records. Compared to those employed or students (referent group), significantly elevated ORs were found to be associated with neither being in the workforce nor a student for all cause, external cause, and external cause mortality other than suicide. Odds ratios were adjusted for age, survey cohort, ethnicity, pre-existing physical and mental health status, education level, and socio-economic status of parent(s). A statistically significant increasing linear trend in odds ratios of male mortality for most cause groups was found across the employment categories, from those employed or student (lowest ORs), through those unemployed; to those not in the workforce (highest ORs). Suicide was higher, but not statistically significantly, in those unemployed or not in the workforce. Suicide also was associated, though not significantly, with the respondent not living with their parents when they were 14 years of age. No association was found between mortality and past unemployment experience, as measured by length of time spent unemployed, or the number of spells of unemployment experienced during the survey. The results of this study underscore the elevated risk to survival in young males as a consequence of being neither employed nor a student. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leaking urine: Prevalence and associated factors in Australian women

The Women's Health Australia project provided the opportunity to examine the prevalence of leaking urine and associated variables in three large cohorts of Australian women 18-23 years of age (young N = 14,761), 45-50 (mid-age N = 14,070), and 70-75 (older N = 12,893). The proportion of women reporting leaking urine was 12.8% (95% CI: 12.2-13.3), 36.1% (35.2-37.0), and 35% (34.1-35.9) in each of the three cohorts, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed significant associations between leaking urine and parity in the young and mid-age women, and between leaking urine and constipation, other bowel symptoms, body mass index, and urine that burns or stings in all three groups. in the mid-age and older cohorts, women who reported having both hysterectomy and prolapse repair, or prolapse repair alone, were also more likely to report leaking urine. Lower scores on the physical and mental component summary scores of the medical outcomes survey short form (36 items) questionnaire suggest lower quality of life among women who report leaking urine, compared with those who do not. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss,Inc.

Do simple prudent health behaviours protect men from myocardial infarction?

Background We tested whether behaviours such as discarding obvious fat on meat, cessation of smoking, avoidance of passive smoking, habitual use of reduced fat milk, prudent consumption of alcohol and regular but moderate physical exercise are associated with a reduction of cardiovascular risk. Methods This was a population-based case-control study done in Perth, Western Australia. The cases (n = 336) were men aged 27-64 years with a first-ever acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during the period 1992-1993, and who survived at least 28 days. The controls (n = 735) were participants in a population-based survey of cardiovascular risk factors conducted during May-November 1994. Both groups completed the same questionnaire and the data were analysed with multiple logistic regression using backward elimination technique. Results Among men aged 27-64 years simple measures such as participation in non-vigorous exercise (odds ratio [OR] = 0.5, 95% CI : 0.4-0.7), and avoidance of added salt (OR = 0.6, 95% CI : 0.4-0.9) are associated with significant and Important protection from AMI. Conclusion After 25 years of falling mortality in Australia, lifestyles can still be significantly improved to reduce heart disease even further.

Who fails to complete tuberculosis treatment? Temporal trends and risk factors for treatment interruption in a community-based directly observed therapy programme in a rural district of South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.

Beyond ovulation: Oral contraceptives and epithelial ovarian cancer

In a case-control study in three Australian states that included 794 women with epithelial ovarian cancer and 853 community controls for whom we had adequate contraceptive and reproductive histories, Re examined the effects of oral contraceptive use after controlling for estimated number of ovulatory cycles. Other covariates included in the multiple logistic regression analysis were parity, smoking, and history of pelvic surgery. The protective effect of duration of oral contraceptive use appeared to be multiplicative, with a 7% decrease in relative risk per year [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4-9%], persisting beyond 15 years of exposure. Use for up to 1 year may have a greater effect than predicted (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.40-0.82), whereas use before the first pregnancy may be additionally beneficial (odds ratio = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.87-1.03, adjusted for overall duration of use). Better control for ovulatory life might attenuate these estimates somewhat. There was little evidence of waning protection with time since last exposure or of extra benefit with early commencement of oral contraceptive use. We found no convincing evidence of effect modification in any factor examined or differences in effect among the three main histologic cancer types or between borderline and malignant tumors. Oral contraceptives may act by both suppressing ovulation and altering the tumor-promoting milieu.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Social-cognitive and perceived environment influences associated with physical activity in older Australians

Background, Regular physical activity in older adults can facilitate healthy aging, improve functional capacity, and prevent disease. However, factors associated with physical inactivity in older populations are poorly understood. This study attempts to identify social-cognitive and perceived environmental influences associated with physical activity participation in older populations. Methods. In a randomly selected sample of 449 Australian adults age 60 and older, we assessed self-reported physical activity and a range of social-cognitive and perceived environmental factors. Respondents were classified as sufficiently active and inactive based on energy expenditure estimates (kcal/week) derived from self-reported physical activity. Two logistic regression models, with and without self-efficacy included, were conducted to identify modifiable independent predictors of physical activity. Results. Significantly more males than females were physically active. Physical activity participation was related to age with a greater proportion of those age 65-69 being active than those age 60-64 or 70 or older. High self-efficacy, regular participation of friends and family, finding footpaths safe for walking, and access to local facilities were significantly associated with being active. Conclusion. Identifying predictors of physical activity in older populations, particularly social support, facility access, and neighbourhood safety, can inform the development of policy and intervention strategies to promote the health of older people. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

The serotonin transporter gene and Parkinson's disease

Dysfunction in the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) system and reduced serotonin concentrations have been reported in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Serotonin concentrations in neural tissue are controlled by a presynaptic serotonin transporter protein that is encoded by a single gene. Therefore, we investigated whether a polymorphic region in the serotonin transporter gene is associated with PD. Three variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) elements of the serotonin transporter gene were detected by polymerase chain reaction, those with 9, 10, 11 and 12 copies of the repeat element. The 10-copy VNTR element was significantly less common in patients with PD than controls in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences between patients (n = 198) and controls (n = 200) in the distribution frequencies of 9-and 12-copy alleles and combined genotypes (odds ratio = 1.20; p = 1.71). A positive family history of PD was a strong predictor of disease risk (odds ratio = 2.98; 95% confidence interval 1.51-5.87; p = 0.001). Although slight differences were observed between patient and control groups, these data suggest that defects in serotonin concentrations in patients with PD are unlikely to be due to polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene in this large Australian cohort; however, the inverse association observed with the 10-copy allele warrants further investigation. Copyright (C) 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity

Background. International research indicates that blue-collar employees typically exhibit lower rates of leisure-time physical activity. While lack of time and work demands are commonly reported barriers to activity, the extent to which time-at-work mediates the relationship between occupation and leisure-time physical activity is unclear. This study investigated the association between occupation, time spent in paid employment, and participation in leisure-time physical activity. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 1995 Australian Health Survey, focusing on employed persons ages 18-64 years (n = 24,454), Occupation was coded as per the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations and collapsed into three categories (professional, white-collar, blue-collar). Hours worked was categorized into eight levels, ranging from 1-14 to more than 50 h per week. Participation in leisure-time physical activity was categorized as either insufficient or sufficient for health, consistent with recommended levels of energy expenditure (1600 METS-min/fortnight). The relationship between occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity was examined using logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately for male and female, and the results are presented as a series of models that successively adjust for a range of potential covariates: age, living arrangement, smoking status, body mass index, and self-reported health. Results. Individuals in blue-collar occupations were approximately 50% more likely to be classified as insufficiently active. This occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity was not explained by hours worked. There was a suggested relationship between hours worked and leisure-time physical activity; however, this differed between men and women, and was difficult to interpret. Conclusions. Occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity cannot be explained by hours worked. Therefore, reports that work constitutes a barrier to participation should be explored further. Identification of the factors contributing to occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity will add to our understanding of why population subgroups differ in their health risk profiles, and assist in the development of health promotion strategies to reduce rates of sedentariness and health inequalities. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Cervical screening in migrants to Australia

Objective: To examine differentials and time trends in self-reported Pap test rates by migrant status from the 1989/90 and 1995 Australian National Health Surveys (NHS). Method: Unit record data for females with the variables of interest were extracted from the 1989/90 and 1995 NHS and combined. The dichotomous outcome variables were 'ever had a Pap test and 'had a Pap test within three years'. The principal study factor was country-of-birth, but language spoken at home (English or not) was also examined. The indirect age-standardised screening ratio was used to calculate proportions of 'ever had a Pap test' and 'had a Pap test within three years' and differences were tested statistically using logistic regression analysis for each year of survey by migrant status. Results: Odds ratios for rates of reporting 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly lower in women born in southern Europe, Italy, other countries, southern Asia, Middle East, Greece and South-East Asia compared with Australian-born. Reported rates of 'ever had a Pap test' were significantly higher in the 1995 NHS (p