Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

The relative importance of vascular structure and function in predicting cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic utility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR) in patients at risk of cardiovascular events. BACKGROUND Impaired flow-mediated vasodilation measured by BAR is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Brachial artery reactivity is influenced by risk factors and is responsive to various pharmacological and other treatments. However, its prognostic importance is uncertain, especially relative to other predictors of outcome. METHODS A total of 444 patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo BAR and follow-up. These patients were at risk of cardiovascular events, based on the presence of risk factors or known or suspected cardiovascular disease. We took a full clinical history, performed BAR, and obtained carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass and ejection fraction. Patients were followed up for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of investigation variables on outcomes. RESULTS The patients exhibited abnormal BAR (5.2 +/- 6.1% [mean +/- SD]) but showed normal nitrate-mediated dilation (9.9 +/- 7.2%) and normal mean IMT (0.67 +/- 0.12 mm [average]). Forty-nine deaths occurred over the median follow-up period of 24 months (interquartile range 10 to 34). Patients in the lowest tertile group of BAR (<2%) had significantly more events than those in the combined group of highest and mid-tertiles (p = 0.029, log-rank test). However, mean IMT (rather than flow-mediated dilation) was the vascular factor independently associated with mortality, even in the subgroup (n = 271) with no coronary artery disease and low risk. CONCLUSIONS Brachial artery reactivity is lower in patients with events, but is not an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in this cohort of patients. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Utility functions on locally connected spaces

We investigate the role of local connectedness in utility theory and prove that any continuous total preorder on a locally connected separable space is continuously representable. This is a new simple criterion for the representability of continuous preferences, and is not a consequence of the standard theorems in utility theory that use conditions such as connectedness and separability, second countability, or path-connectedness. Finally we give applications to problems involving the existence of value functions in population ethics and to the problem of proving the existence of continuous utility functions in general equilibrium models with land as one of the commodities. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hurt feelings in couple relationships: Towards integrative models of the negative effects of hurtful events

Previous research suggests that hurt feelings can have powerful effects on individual and relational outcomes. This study examined a typology of hurtful events in couple relationships, together with integrative models predicting ongoing effects on victims and relationships. Participants were 224 students from introductory and third-year psychology classes, who completed open-ended and structured measures concerning an event in which a partner had hurt their feelings. By tailoring Leary et al.'s (1998) typology to the context of romantic relationships, five categories of hurtful events were proposed: active disassociation, passive disassociation, criticism, infidelity, and deception. Analyses assessing similarities and differences among the categories confirmed the utility of the typology. Structural equation modeling showed that longer-term effects on the victim were predicted by relationship anxiety and by the victim's immediate reactions to the event (negative emotions and self-perceptions; feelings of rejection and powerlessness). In contrast, ongoing effects on the relationship were predicted by avoidance, the victim's attributions and perceptions of offender remorse, and the victim's own behavior. The results highlight the utility of an integrated approach to hurt, incorporating emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses, and dimensions of attachment security.

Borrowing from models of motor control to translate cognitive processes: Evidence for hypokinetic-hyperkinetic linguistic homologues?

In relation to motor control, the basal ganglia have been implicated in both the scaling and focusing of movement. Hypokinetic and hyperkinetic movement disorders manifest as a consequence of overshooting and undershooting GPi (globus pallidus internus) activity thresholds, respectively. Recently, models of motor control have been borrowed to translate cognitive processes relating to the overshooting and undershooting of GPi activity, including attention and executive function. Linguistic correlates, however, are yet to be extrapolated in sufficient detail. The aims of the present investigation were to: (1) characterise cognitive-linguistic processes within hypokinetic and hyperkinetic neural systems, as defined by motor disturbances; (2) investigate the impact of surgically-induced GPi lesions upon language abilities. Two Parkinsonian cases with opposing motor symptoms (akinetic versus dystonic/dyskinetic) served as experimental subjects in this research. Assessments were conducted both prior to as well as 3 and 12 months following bilateral posteroventral pallidotomy (PVP). Reliable changes in performance (i.e. both improvements and decrements) were typically restricted to tasks demanding complex linguistic operations across subjects. Hyperkinetic motor symptoms were associated with an initial overall improvement in complex language function as a consequence of bilateral PVP, which diminished over time, suggesting a decrescendo effect relative to surgical beneficence. In contrast, hypokinetic symptoms were associated with a more stable longitudinal linguistic profile, albeit defined by higher proportions of reliable decline versus improvement in postoperative assessment scores. The above findings endorsed the integration of the GPi within cognitive mechanisms involved in the arbitration of complex language functions. In relation to models of motor control, 'focusing' was postulated to represent the neural processes underpinning lexical-semantic manipulation, and 'scaling' the potential allocation of cognitive resources during the mediation of high-level linguistic tasks. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Selecting optimal instantiations of data models - Theory and validation of an ex ante approach

The schema of an information system can significantly impact the ability of end users to efficiently and effectively retrieve the information they need. Obtaining quickly the appropriate data increases the likelihood that an organization will make good decisions and respond adeptly to challenges. This research presents and validates a methodology for evaluating, ex ante, the relative desirability of alternative instantiations of a model of data. In contrast to prior research, each instantiation is based on a different formal theory. This research theorizes that the instantiation that yields the lowest weighted average query complexity for a representative sample of information requests is the most desirable instantiation for end-user queries. The theory was validated by an experiment that compared end-user performance using an instantiation of a data structure based on the relational model of data with performance using the corresponding instantiation of the data structure based on the object-relational model of data. Complexity was measured using three different Halstead metrics: program length, difficulty, and effort. For a representative sample of queries, the average complexity using each instantiation was calculated. As theorized, end users querying the instantiation with the lower average complexity made fewer semantic errors, i.e., were more effective at composing queries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal Paths and Costs of Adjustment in Dynamic DEA Models: With Application to Chilean Department Stores

In this paper we propose a range of dynamic data envelopment analysis (DEA) models which allow information on costs of adjustment to be incorporated into the DEA framework. We first specify a basic dynamic DEA model predicated on a number or simplifying assumptions. We then outline a number of extensions to this model to accommodate asymmetric adjustment costs, non-static output quantities, non-static input prices, and non-static costs of adjustment, technological change, quasi-fixed inputs and investment budget constraints. The new dynamic DEA models provide valuable extra information relative to the standard static DEA models-they identify an optimal path of adjustment for the input quantities, and provide a measure of the potential cost savings that result from recognising the costs of adjusting input quantities towards the optimal point. The new models are illustrated using data relating to a chain of 35 retail department stores in Chile. The empirical results illustrate the wealth of information that can be derived from these models, and clearly show that static models overstate potential cost savings when adjustment costs are non-zero.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Equivalence of the Peleg, Pilosof and Singh-Kulshrestha models for water absorption in food

The similarity between the Peleg, Pilosof –Boquet–Batholomai and Singh–Kulshrestha models was investigated using the hydration behaviours of whey protein concentrate, wheat starch and whey protein isolate at 30 °C in 100% relative humidity. The three models were shown to be mathematically the same within experimental variations, and they yielded parameters that are related. The models, in their linear and original forms, were suitable (r2 > 0.98) in describing the sorption behaviours of the samples, and are sensitive to the length of the sorption segment used in the computation. The whey proteins absorbed more moisture than the wheat starch, and the isolate exhibited a higher sorptive ability than the concentrate.

Application of DNA parentage analyses for determining relative growth rates of Penaeus japonicus families reared in commercial ponds

The ability to track large numbers of individuals and families is a key determinant of the power and precision of breeding programs, including the capacity to quantify interactions between genotypes and their environment. Until recently, most family based selective breeding programs for shrimp, and other highly fecund aquaculture species, have been restricted by the number of animals that can be physically tagged and individually selected. Advances in the development of molecular markers, such as microsatellite loci, are now providing the means to track large numbers of individuals and families in commercial production systems. In this study microsatellites, coupled with DNA parentage analyses, were used to determine the relative performance of 22 families of R japonicus reared in commercial production ponds. In the experimental design 6000 post-larvae from each of 22 families, whose maternal parents had been genotyped at 8 microsatellite loci, were stocked into each of four I ha ponds. After 6 months the ponds were harvested and a total of 6000 individuals were randomly weighed from each pond. Mean wet weight of the shrimp from one pond was significantly lower than that of the other three ponds demonstrating a possible pond effect on growth rate. The representation of families in the top 10% of each pond's weight distribution was then determined by randomly genotyping up to 300 individuals from this upper weight class. Parentage analyses based on individual genotypic data demonstrated that some families were over-represented in the top 10% in all ponds, while others were under-represented due to slower growth rates. The results also revealed some weak, but significant, male genotype x environment (G x E) interactions in the expression of shrimp growth for some families. This indicates that G x E effects may need to be factored into future R japonicus selective breeding programs. This study demonstrated the utility of DNA parentage analyses for tracking individual family performance in communally stocked shrimp pond populations and, its application to examining G x E effects on trait expression under commercial culture conditions. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Relative validity of food intake estimates using a food frequency questionnaire is associated with sex, age, and other personal characteristics

We invostigated the validity of food intake estimates obtained by a self-administered FFQ relative to weighed food records (WFR) and the extent to which demographic, anthropometric, and social characteristics explain differences between these methods. A community-based sample of 96 Australian adults completed a FFQ and 12 d of WFR over 12 mo. The FFQ was adapted to the Australian setting from the questionnaire used in the US Nurses' Health Study. Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranged from 0.08 for other vegetables to 0.88 for tea. Exact agreement by quartiles of intake ranged from 27% (eggs) to 63% (tea). Differences between FFQ and WFR regressed on personal characteristics were significantly associated with at least 1 characteristic for 20 of the 37 foods. Sex was significantly associated with differences for 17 food groups, including 5 specific vegetable groups and 2 total fruit and vegetable groups. Use of dietary supplements and the presence of a medical condition were associated with differences for 5 foods; age, school leaving age, and occupation were associated with differences for 1-3 foods. BMI was rot associated with differences for any foods. Regression models explained from 3% (wholemeal bread) to 37% (for all cereals and products) of variation in differences between methods. We conclude that the relative validity of intake estimates obtained by FFQ is different for men and women for a large number of foods. These results highlight the need for appropriate adjustment of diet-disease relations for factors affecting the validity of food intake estimates.

Understanding the multidimensionality of group development

This article presents a three-dimensional definition space of the group development literature that differentiates group development models on three dimensions: content, population, and path dependency. The multidimensional conceptualization structures and integrates the vast group development literature, enabling direct comparison of competing theories. The utility of this definition space is demonstrated by using the relative positioning of two seemingly competing group development models-the punctuated equilibrium model and the integrative model-to demonstrate their complementarity. The authors also show how organizational researchers and practitioners can use the three-dimensional definition space to select an appropriate theoretical model for the group or group process with which they are working.