Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Attaching unit costs to Australia's National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing

Background: In mental health, policy-makers and planners are increasingly being asked to set priorities. This means that health economists, health services researchers and clinical investigators are being called upon to work together to define and measure costs. Typically, these researchers take available service utilisation data and convert them to costs, using a range of assumptions. There are inefficiencies, as individual groups of researchers frequently repeat essentially similar exercises in achieving this end. There are clearly areas where shared or common investment in the development of statistical software syntax, analytical frameworks and other resources could maximise the use of data. Aims of the Study: This paper reports on an Australian project in which we calculated unit costs for mental health admissions and community encounters. In reporting on these calculations, our purpose is to make the data and the resources associated with them publicly available to researchers interested in conducting economic analyses, and allow them to copy, distribute and modify them, providing that all copies and modifications are available under the same terms and conditions (i.e., in accordance with the 'Copyleft' principle), Within this context, the objectives of the paper are to: (i) introduce the 'Copyleft' principle; (ii) provide an overview of the methodology we employed to derive the unit costs; (iii) present the unit costs themselves; and (iv) examine the total and mean costs for a range of single and comorbid conditions, as an example of the kind of question that the unit cost data can be used to address. Method: We took relevant data from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB), and developed a set of unit costs for inpatient and community encounters. We then examined total and mean costs for a range of single and comorbid conditions. Results: We present the unit costs for mental health admissions and mental health community contacts. Our example, which explored the association between comorbidity and total and mean costs, suggested that comorbidly occurring conditions cost more than conditions which occur on their own. Discussion: Our unit costs, and the materials associated with them, have been published in a freely available form governed by a provision termed 'Copyleft'. They provide a valuable resource for researchers wanting to explore economic questions in mental health. Implications for Health Policies: Our unit costs provide an important resource to inform economic debate in mental health in Australia, particularly in the area of priority-setting. In the past, such debate has largely, been based on opinion. Our unit costs provide the underpinning to strengthen the evidence-base of this debate. Implications for Further Research: We would encourage other Australian researchers to make use of our unit costs in order to foster comparability across studies. We would also encourage Australian and international researchers to adopt the 'Copyleft' principle in equivalent circumstances. Furthermore, we suggest that the provision of 'Copyleft'-contingent funding to support the development of enabling resources for researchers should be considered in the planning of future large-scale collaborative survey work, both in Australia and overseas.

Partitioned likelihood support and the evaluation of data set conflict

In simultaneous analyses of multiple data partitions, the trees relevant when measuring support for a clade are the optimal tree, and the best tree lacking the clade (i.e., the most reasonable alternative). The parsimony-based method of partitioned branch support (PBS) forces each data set to arbitrate between the two relevant trees. This value is the amount each data set contributes to clade support in the combined analysis, and can be very different to support apparent in separate analyses. The approach used in PBS can also be employed in likelihood: a simultaneous analysis of all data retrieves the maximum likelihood tree, and the best tree without the clade of interest is also found. Each data set is fitted to the two trees and the log-likelihood difference calculated, giving partitioned likelihood support (PLS) for each data set. These calculations can be performed regardless of the complexity of the ML model adopted. The significance of PLS can be evaluated using a variety of resampling methods, such as the Kishino-Hasegawa test, the Shimodiara-Hasegawa test, or likelihood weights, although the appropriateness and assumptions of these tests remains debated.

Floral structure, breeding system and fruit-set in the threatened sub-shrub Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae)

Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae) has undergone a range contraction of approx. 50 km in the last 100 years and is now listed as a vulnerable sub-shrub restricted to the central and north coast regions of New South Wales, Australia. There are approx. 250 populations in a 110 km north-south distribution and populations are usually small with fewer than 50 plants/clumps. The reproductive ecology of the species was studied to determine why seed-set is reportedly rare. Flowers are bisexual, odourless and nectarless. Flowers are presented dependentally and there are eight stamens recurved around the pistil. Anthers are poricidal, contain viable pollen and basally contain a deep-red tapetal fluid that is slightly oily. Thus flowers are presented for buzz pollinators, although none were observed at flowers during our study. The species was found to be facultatively xenogamous with only one in 50 glasshouse flowers setting seed autogamously, i.e. without pollinator assistance. Field studies revealed fertile fruit in 24 populations but production varied significantly across sites from exceedingly low (0.6 fruits per plant clump) to low (17 fruits per plant clump). Fruit-set ranged from 0 to 65%, suggesting that pollen vectors exist or that autogamy levels in the field are variable and higher than glasshouse results. Fruit production did not vary with population size, although in three of the five populations in the south-west region more than twice as much fruit was produced as in populations elsewhere. A moderately strong relationship between foliage volume and fruit : flower ratios suggests that bigger plants may be more attractive than smaller plants to pollinators. A review of Tetratheca pollination ecology revealed that several species are poorly fecund and pollinators are rare. The habitat requirements for Tetratheca, a genus of many rare and threatened species, is discussed. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

The effectiveness of hylan G-F 20 in patients with knee osteoarthritis: an application of two sets of response criteria developed by the OARSI and one set developed by OMERACT-OARSI

Objective: Secondary analyses of a previously conducted 1-year randomized controlled trial were performed to assess the application of responder criteria in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) using different sets of responder criteria developed by the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) (Propositions A and B) for intra-articular drugs and Outcome Measures in Arthritis Clinical Trials (OMERACT)-OARSI (Proposition D). Methods: Two hundred fifty-five patients with knee OA were randomized to appropriate care with hylan G-F 20 (AC + H) or appropriate care without hylan G-F 20 (AC). A patient was defined as a responder at month 12 based on change in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain and function (0-100 normalized scale) and patient global assessment of OA in the study knee (at least one-category improvement in very poor, poor, fair, good and very good). All propositions incorporate both minimum relative and absolute changes. Results: Results demonstrated that statistically significant differences in responders between treatment groups, in favor of hylan G-F 20, were detected for Proposition A (AC + H = 53.5%, AC = 25.2%), Proposition B (AC + H = 56.7%, AC = 32.3%) and Proposition D (AC + H = 66.9%, AC = 42.5%). The highest effectiveness in both treatment groups was observed with Proposition D, whereas Proposition A resulted in the lowest effectiveness in both treatment groups. The treatment group differences always exceeded the required 20% minimum clinically important difference between groups established a priori, and were 28.3%, 24.4% and 24.4% for Propositions A, B and D, respectively. Conclusion: This analysis provides evidence for the capacity of OARSI and OMERACT-OARSI responder criteria to detect clinically important statistically detectable differences between treatment groups. (C) 2004 OsteoArthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Method for the generation and cultivation of functional three-dimensional mammary constructs without exogenous extracellular matrix

During puberty, pregnancy, lactation and postlactation, breast tissue undergoes extensive remodelling and the disruption of these events can lead to cancer. In vitro studies of mammary tissue and its malignant transformation regularly employ mammary epithelial cells cultivated on matrigel or floating collagen rafts. In these cultures, mammary epithelial cells assemble into three-dimensional structures resembling in vivo acini. We present a novel technique for generating functional mammary constructs without the use of matrix substitutes.

A new method for identification of protein (sub)families in a set of proteins based on hydropathy distribution in proteins

Structural similarity among proteins is reflected in the distribution of hydropathicity along the amino acids in the protein sequence. Similarities in the hydropathy distributions are obvious for homologous proteins within a protein family. They also were observed for proteins with related structures, even when sequence similarities were undetectable. Here we present a novel method that employs the hydropathy distribution in proteins for identification of (sub)families in a set of (homologous) proteins. We represent proteins as points in a generalized hydropathy space, represented by vectors of specifically defined features. The features are derived from hydropathy of the individual amino acids. Projection of this space onto principal axes reveals groups of proteins with related hydropathy distributions. The groups identified correspond well to families of structurally and functionally related proteins. We found that this method accurately identifies protein families in a set of proteins, or subfamilies in a set of homologous proteins. Our results show that protein families can be identified by the analysis of hydropathy distribution, without the need for sequence alignment. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The costs of caring for patients in a tertiary referral Australian intensive care unit

We determined the direct cost of an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed in a tertiary referral Australian ICU and the cost drivers thereof, by retrospectively analysing a number of prospectively designed Hospital- and Unit-specific electronic databases. The study period was a financial year, from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2003. There were 1615 patients occupying 5692 fractional occupied bed days at a total cost of A$15,915,964, with an average length of stay of 3.69 days (range 0.5-77, median 1.06, interquartile range 2.33). The main cost driver not incorporated into this analysis was blood products (paid for centrally). The average costs of an ICU day and total stay per patient were A$2670 and A$9852 respectively. Staff-related charges were 68.76%, with consumables related expenditure making up 19.65%, clinical support services 9.55% and capital equipment 2.04%. Overtime charges and nursing agency staff were 19.4% of staff-related charges (2.9% for agency staff), 3.9% lower than expenditure associated with full-time employment charges, such as pension and leave. The emergency nature of ICU means it is difficult to accurately set a nursing establishment to cater for all admissions and therefore it is hard to decide what is an acceptable percentage difference between agency/overtime costs compared with the costs associated with full-time staff appointments. Consumable expenditure is likely to increase the most with new innovation and therapies. Using protocol driven practices may tighten and control costs incurred in ICU.

Nitrogen balance for an agroforestry system irrigated with saline, high nitrogen effluent

Land disposal is commonly used for urban and industrial wastewater, largely due to the high costs involved in alternative treatments or disposal systems. However, the viability of such systems depends on many factors, including the composition of the effluent water, soil type, the plant species grown, growth rate, and planting density. The objective of this study is to establish whether land disposal of nitrogen (N) rich effluent using an agroforestry system is sustainable, and determine the effect of irrigation rate and tree planting density on the N cycle and subsequent N removal. We examined systems for the sustainable disposal of a high strength industrial effluent. The challenge was to leach the salt, by using a sufficiently high rate of irrigation, while simultaneously ensuring that N did not leach from the soil profile. We describe the N balance for two plant systems irrigated with effluent, one comprising Eucalyptus tereticornis and Eucalyptus moluccana and a Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) pasture, and the other, Rhodes grass pasture alone. Nitrogen balance was assessed from N inputs in effluent and rainfall, accumulation of N in the plant biomass, changes in soil N storage, N loss in run-off water, denitrification and N loss to the groundwater by deep-drainage. Biomass production was estimated from allometric relationships derived from yearly destructive harvesting of selected trees. The N content of that biomass was then calculated from measured N content of the various plant parts, and their mass. Approximately 300 kg N/ha/yr was assimilated into tree biomass at a planting density of 2500 tree/ha of E. moluccana. In addition to tree assimilation, pasture growth between the tree rows, which was regularly harvested, contributed substantially to N uptake. If the trees were harvested after two years of growth and grass harvested regularly, biomass removal of N by the mixed system would be about 700 kg N/ha/yr. The results of this study show that the current system of effluent disposal is not sustainable as the nitrate leaching from the soil profile far exceeds standards set out by the ANZECC guidelines. Hence additional means of N removal will need to be implemented. Biological N removal is an area that warrants further studies as it is aimed at reducing N levels in the effluent before irrigation. This will complement the current agroforestry system.