Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Contribution of cholinergic systems to state-dependent modulation of respiratory control

Respiration is altered during different stages of the sleep-wake cycle. We review the contribution of cholinergic systems to this alteration, with particular reference to the role of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (MAchRs) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Available evidence demonstrates that MAchRs have potent excitatory effects on medullary respiratory neurones and respiratory motoneurones, and are likely to contribute to changes in central chemosensitive drive to the respiratory control system. These effects are likely to be most prominent during REM sleep, when cholinergic brainstem neurones show peak activity levels. It is possible that MAchR dysfunction is involved in sleep-disordered breathing, Such as obstructive sleep apnea. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can non-directional male mating preferences facilitate honest female ornamentation?

Recent studies have demonstrated male mate choice for female ornaments in species without sex-role reversal. Despite these empirical findings, little is known about the adaptive dynamics of female signalling, in particular the evolution of male mating preferences. The evolution of traits that signal mate quality is more complex in females than in males because females usually provide the bulk of resources for the developing offspring. Here, we investigate the evolution of male mating preferences using a mathematical model which: (i) specifically accounts for the fact that females must trade-off resources invested in ornaments with reproduction; and (ii) allows male mating preferences to evolve a non-directional shape. The optimal adaptive strategy for males is to develop stabilizing mating preferences for female display traits to avoid females that either invests too many or too few resources in ornamentation. However, the evolutionary stability of this prediction is dependent upon the level of error made by females when allocating resources to either signal or fecundity.

Effects of temperature-dependent viscosity variation on entropy generation, heat and fluid flow through a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section

Effect of temperature-dependent viscosity on fully developed forced convection in a duct of rectangular cross-section occupied by a fluid-saturated porous medium is investigated analytically. The Darcy flow model is applied and the viscosity-temperature relation is assumed to be an inverse-linear one. The case of uniform heat flux on the walls, i.e. the H boundary condition in the terminology of Kays and Crawford, is treated. For the case of a fluid whose viscosity decreases with temperature, it is found that the effect of the variation is to increase the Nusselt number for heated walls. Having found the velocity and the temperature distribution, the second law of thermodynamics is invoked to find the local and average entropy generation rate. Expressions for the entropy generation rate, the Bejan number, the heat transfer irreversibility, and the fluid flow irreversibility are presented in terms of the Brinkman number, the Péclet number, the viscosity variation number, the dimensionless wall heat flux, and the aspect ratio (width to height ratio). These expressions let a parametric study of the problem based on which it is observed that the entropy generated due to flow in a duct of square cross-section is more than those of rectangular counterparts while increasing the aspect ratio decreases the entropy generation rate similar to what previously reported for the clear flow case.

Strategies for identifying and predicting islet autoantigen T-cell epitopes in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

T cells recognize peptide epitopes bound to major histocompatibility complex molecules. Human T-cell epitopes have diagnostic and therapeutic applications in autoimmune diseases. However, their accurate definition within an autoantigen by T-cell bioassay, usually proliferation, involves many costly peptides and a large amount of blood, We have therefore developed a strategy to predict T-cell epitopes and applied it to tyrosine phosphatase IA-2, an autoantigen in IDDM, and HLA-DR4(*0401). First, the binding of synthetic overlapping peptides encompassing IA-2 was measured directly to purified DR4. Secondly, a large amount of HLA-DR4 binding data were analysed by alignment using a genetic algorithm and were used to train an artificial neural network to predict the affinity of binding. This bioinformatic prediction method was then validated experimentally and used to predict DR4 binding peptides in IA-2. The binding set encompassed 85% of experimentally determined T-cell epitopes. Both the experimental and bioinformatic methods had high negative predictive values, 92% and 95%, indicating that this strategy of combining experimental results with computer modelling should lead to a significant reduction in the amount of blood and the number of peptides required to define T-cell epitopes in humans.

Matrix elements of U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. I. The del-operator MEs in a two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis

This is the first in a series of three articles which aimed to derive the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. This is a basis appropriate to many-electron systems which have a natural partitioning of the orbital space and where also spin-dependent terms are included in the Hamiltonian. The method is based on a new spin-dependent unitary group approach to the many-electron correlation problem due to Gould and Paldus [M. D. Gould and J. Paldus, J. Chem. Phys. 92, 7394, (1990)]. In this approach, the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in the U(n) x U(2)-adapted electronic Gelfand basis are determined by the matrix elements of a single Ll(n) adjoint tensor operator called the del-operator, denoted by Delta(j)(i) (1 less than or equal to i, j less than or equal to n). Delta or del is a polynomial of degree two in the U(n) matrix E = [E-j(i)]. The approach of Gould and Paldus is based on the transformation properties of the U(2n) generators as an adjoint tensor operator of U(n) x U(2) and application of the Wigner-Eckart theorem. Hence, to generalize this approach, we need to obtain formulas for the complete set of adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis. The nonzero shift coefficients are uniquely determined and may he evaluated by the methods of Gould et al. [see the above reference]. In this article, we define zero-shift adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis which are appropriate to the many-electron problem. By definition, these are proportional to the corresponding two-shell del-operator matrix elements, and it is shown that the Racah factorization lemma applies. Formulas for these coefficients are then obtained by application of the Racah factorization lemma. The zero-shift adjoint reduced Wigner coefficients required for this procedure are evaluated first. All these coefficients are needed later for the multishell case, which leads directly to the two-shell del-operator matrix elements. Finally, we discuss an application to charge and spin densities in a two-shell molecular system. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons.

The critical power function is dependent on the duration of the predictive exercise tests chosen

The linear relationship between work accomplished (W-lim) and time to exhaustion (t(lim)) can be described by the equation: W-lim = a + CP.t(lim). Critical power (CP) is the slope of this line and is thought to represent a maximum rate of ATP synthesis without exhaustion, presumably an inherent characteristic of the aerobic energy system. The present investigation determined whether the choice of predictive tests would elicit significant differences in the estimated CP. Ten female physical education students completed, in random order and on consecutive days, five art-out predictive tests at preselected constant-power outputs. Predictive tests were performed on an electrically-braked cycle ergometer and power loadings were individually chosen so as to induce fatigue within approximately 1-10 mins. CP was derived by fitting the linear W-lim-t(lim) regression and calculated three ways: 1) using the first, third and fifth W-lim-t(lim) coordinates (I-135), 2) using coordinates from the three highest power outputs (I-123; mean t(lim) = 68-193 s) and 3) using coordinates from the lowest power outputs (I-345; mean t(lim) = 193-485 s). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that CPI123 (201.0 +/- 37.9W) > CPI135 (176.1 +/- 27.6W) > CPI345 (164.0 +/- 22.8W) (P < 0.05). When the three sets of data were used to fit the hyperbolic Power-t(lim) regression, statistically significant differences between each CP were also found (P < 0.05). The shorter the predictive trials, the greater the slope of the W-lim-t(lim) regression; possibly because of the greater influence of 'aerobic inertia' on these trials. This may explain why CP has failed to represent a maximal, sustainable work rate. The present findings suggest that if CP is to represent the highest power output that an individual can maintain for a very long time without fatigue then CP should be calculated over a range of predictive tests in which the influence of aerobic inertia is minimised.

Morphine has a dual concentration-dependent effect on K+-evoked substance P release from rat peripheral airways

Our previous investigations of possible lung mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of nebulized morphine for the relief of dyspnoea, have shown a high density of non-conventional opioid binding sites in rat airways with similar binding characteristics (opioid alkaloid-sensitive, opioid peptide-insensitive) to that of putative mu(3)-opioid receptors on immune cells. To investigate whether these lung opioid binding sites are functional receptors, this study was designed to determine (using superfusion) whether morphine modulates the K+-evoked release of the pro-inflammatory neuropeptide, substance P (SP), from rat peripheral airways. Importantly, K+-evoked SP release was Ca2+-dependent, consistent with vesicular release. Submicromolar concentrations of morphine (1 and 200 nM) inhibited K+-evoked SP release from rat peripheral airways in a naloxone (1 mu M) reversible manner. By contrast, 1 mu M morphine enhanced K+-evoked SP release and this effect was not reversed by 1 mu M naloxone. However, 100 mu M naloxone not only antagonized the facilitatory effect of 1 mu M morphine on K+-evoked SP release from rat peripheral airways but it inhibited release to a similar extent as 200 nM morphine. It is possible that these latter effects are mediated by non-conventional opioid receptors located on mast cells, activation of which causes naloxone-reversible histamine release that in turn augments the release of SP from sensory nerve terminals in the peripheral airways. Clearly, further studies are required to investigate this possibility. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

Effect of estrogen on vascular smooth muscle cells is dependent upon cellular phenotype

To investigate the growth-regulating action of estrogen on vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC), effects of beta-17-estradiol (beta-E-2) on phenotypic modulation and proliferation of rabbit aortic SMC were observed in vitro. At 10(-8) M, beta-E-2 significantly slowed the decrease in volume fraction of myofilaments (V(v)myo) of freshly dispersed SMCs in primary culture, indicating an inhibitory effect of beta-E-2 On spontaneous phenotypic modulation of SMC from a contractile to a synthetic phenotype. Freshly dispersed SMCs treated with beta-E-2 also had a relatively longer quiescent phase than control cells before intense proliferation occurred. This was in contrast to SMCs in passage 2-3 (synthetic state), where beta-E-2-treated cells replicated significantly faster than untreated cells. beta-E-2 also markedly enhanced the serum-induced DNA synthesis of synthetic SMCs in a concentration-dependent manner within physiological range (10(-10) to 10-8 M). These findings indicate that the growth-regulating effect of estrogen on vascular SMC is dependent on the cell's phenotypic stare. It delays the cell cycle re-entry of the contractile SMCs by retarding their phenotypic modulation however, once cells have modulated to the synthetic phenotype, it promotes their replication. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retinal and lenticular ultrastructure in the aestivating salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) with special reference to a new type of photoreceptor mosaic

The salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) is endemic to southwestern Australia and inhabits shallow, freshwater pools which evaporate during the hot summer months. Burrowing into the substrate in response to falling water levels allows these fish to aestivate for extended periods of time while encapsulated in a mucous cocoon even when the pools contain no water. Only a few minutes after a major rainfall, these fish emerge into relatively clear water which subsequently becomes laden with tannin, turning the water black and reducing the pH to approximately 4.3. As part of a large study of the visual adaptations of this unique species, the retinal and lenticular morphology of the aestivating salamanderfish is examined at the level of the light and electron microscopes. The inner retina is highly vascularised by a complex system of vitreal blood vessels, while the outer retina receives a blood supply by diffusion from a choriocapillaris. This increased retinal blood supply may be an adaptation for reducing the oxygen tension during critical periods of aestivation. Large numbers of Muller cells traverse the thickness of the retina from the inner to the outer limiting membranes. The ganglion cells are arranged in two ill-defined layers, separated from a thick inner nuclear layer containing two layers of horizontal cells by a soma-free inner plexiform layer. The photoreceptors can be divided into three types typical of many early actinopterygian representatives; equal double cones, small single cones and large rods (2:1:1). These photoreceptors are arranged into a unique regular square mosaic comprising a large rod bordered by four equal double cones with a small single cone located at the corner of each repeating unit. The double cones may optimise perception of mobile prey which it tracks by flexion of its head and neck and the large rods may increase sensitivity in the dark tannin-rich waters in which it lives. Each single cone also possesses a dense collection of polysomes and glycogen (a paraboloid) beneath its ellipsoid, the first such finding in teleosts. The retinal pigment epithelium possesses melanosomes, pha,oocytes and a large number of mitochondria. The anatomy of the retina and the photoreceptor mosaic is discussed in relation to the primitive phylogeny of this species and its unique life history.