True measures of GDP and convergence

Widely used ''purchasing power parity'' comparisons of per capita GDP are not true quantity indexes and are subject to systematic substitution bins. This bias may distort measurement of convergence and divergence. Extending Varian's nonparametric construction of a true index gives the set of true indexes, including the new Ideal Afriat Index. These indexes are utility-consistent and independent of arbitrary reference price vectors. We establish bounds on the dispersion of true multilateral indexes, hence bounds on convergence. International price indexes understate both true GDP dispersion and, where prices are converging over time, the rate of true quantity convergence.

On the equivalence of weighted Country-Product-Dummy (CPD) Method and the Rao-System for multilateral price comparisons

The country-product-dummy (CPD) method, originally proposed in Summers (1973), has recently been revisited in its weighted formulation to handle a variety of data related situations (Rao and Timmer, 2000, 2003; Heravi et al., 2001; Rao, 2001; Aten and Menezes, 2002; Heston and Aten, 2002; Deaton et al., 2004). The CPD method is also increasingly being used in the context of hedonic modelling instead of its original purpose of filling holes in Summers (1973). However, the CPD method is seen, among practitioners, as a black box due to its regression formulation. The main objective of the paper is to establish equivalence of purchasing power parities and international prices derived from the application of the weighted-CPD method with those arising out of the Rao-system for multilateral comparisons. A major implication of this result is that the weighted-CPD method would then be a natural method of aggregation at all levels of aggregation within the context of international comparisons.

Pore size distribution analysis of activated carbons: Application of density functional theory using nongraphitized carbon black as a reference system

The application of nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT) to determine pore size distribution (PSD) of activated carbons using a nongraphitized carbon black, instead of graphitized thermal carbon black, as a reference system is explored. We show that in this case nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherms in activated carbons are precisely correlated by the theory, and such an excellent correlation would never be possible if the pore wall surface was assumed to be identical to that of graphitized carbon black. It suggests that pore wall surfaces of activated carbon are closer to that of amorphous solids because of defects of crystalline lattice, finite pore length, and the presence of active centers.. etc. Application of the NLDFT adapted to amorphous solids resulted in quantitative description of N-2 and Ar adsorption isotherms on nongraphitized carbon black BP280 at their respective boiling points. In the present paper we determined solid-fluid potentials from experimental adsorption isotherms on nongraphitized carbon black and subsequently used those potentials to model adsorption in slit pores and generate a corresponding set of local isotherms, which we used to determine the PSD functions of different activated carbons. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

Retinal and lenticular ultrastructure in the aestivating salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) with special reference to a new type of photoreceptor mosaic

The salamanderfish, Lepidogalaxias salamandroides (Galaxiidae, Teleostei) is endemic to southwestern Australia and inhabits shallow, freshwater pools which evaporate during the hot summer months. Burrowing into the substrate in response to falling water levels allows these fish to aestivate for extended periods of time while encapsulated in a mucous cocoon even when the pools contain no water. Only a few minutes after a major rainfall, these fish emerge into relatively clear water which subsequently becomes laden with tannin, turning the water black and reducing the pH to approximately 4.3. As part of a large study of the visual adaptations of this unique species, the retinal and lenticular morphology of the aestivating salamanderfish is examined at the level of the light and electron microscopes. The inner retina is highly vascularised by a complex system of vitreal blood vessels, while the outer retina receives a blood supply by diffusion from a choriocapillaris. This increased retinal blood supply may be an adaptation for reducing the oxygen tension during critical periods of aestivation. Large numbers of Muller cells traverse the thickness of the retina from the inner to the outer limiting membranes. The ganglion cells are arranged in two ill-defined layers, separated from a thick inner nuclear layer containing two layers of horizontal cells by a soma-free inner plexiform layer. The photoreceptors can be divided into three types typical of many early actinopterygian representatives; equal double cones, small single cones and large rods (2:1:1). These photoreceptors are arranged into a unique regular square mosaic comprising a large rod bordered by four equal double cones with a small single cone located at the corner of each repeating unit. The double cones may optimise perception of mobile prey which it tracks by flexion of its head and neck and the large rods may increase sensitivity in the dark tannin-rich waters in which it lives. Each single cone also possesses a dense collection of polysomes and glycogen (a paraboloid) beneath its ellipsoid, the first such finding in teleosts. The retinal pigment epithelium possesses melanosomes, pha,oocytes and a large number of mitochondria. The anatomy of the retina and the photoreceptor mosaic is discussed in relation to the primitive phylogeny of this species and its unique life history.

Poverty - dynamic and sustainability perspectives: Implications for welfare and policy with reference to India

After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.

Determination of breeding strategies for beef cattle bull breeders selling bulls into two competing markets on a non-linear price grid

Computer simulation was used to suggest potential selection strategies for beef cattle breeders with different mixes of clients between two potential markets. The traditional market paid on the basis of carcass weight (CWT), while a new market considered marbling grade in addition to CWT as a basis for payment. Both markets instituted discounts for CWT in excess of 340 kg and light carcasses below 300 kg. Herds were simulated for each price category on the carcass weight grid for the new market. This enabled the establishment of phenotypic relationships among the traits examined [CWT, percent intramuscular fat (IMF), carcass value in the traditional market, carcass value in the new market, and the expected proportion of progeny in elite price cells in the new market pricing grid]. The appropriateness of breeding goals was assessed on the basis of client satisfaction. Satisfaction was determined by the equitable distribution of available stock between markets combined with the assessment of the utility of the animal within the market to which it was assigned. The best goal for breeders with predominantly traditional clients was a CWT in excess of 330 kg, while that for breeders with predominantly new market clients was a CWT of between 310 and 329 kg and with a marbling grade of AAA in the Ontario carcass pricing system. For breeders who wished to satisfy both new and traditional clients, the optimal CWT was 310-329 kg and the optimal marbling grade was AA-AAA. This combination resulted in satisfaction levels of greater than 75% among clients, regardless of the distribution of the clients between the traditional and new marketplaces.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Urea based osmoregulation and endocrine control in elasmobranch fish with special reference to euryhalinity

Since the landmark contributions of Homer Smith and co-workers in the 1930s there has been a considerable advance in our knowledge regarding the osmoregulatory strategy of elasmobranch fish. Smith recognised that urea was retained in the body fluids as part of the 'osmoregulatory ballast' of elasmobranch fish so that body fluid osmolality is raised to a level that is iso- or slightly hyper-osmotic to that of the surrounding medium. From studies at that time he also postulated that many marine dwelling elasmobranchs were not capable of adaptation to dilute environments. However, more recent investigations have demonstrated that, at least in some species, this may not be the case. Gradual acclimation of marine dwelling elasmobranchs to varying environmental salinities under laboratory conditions has demonstrated that these fish do have the capacity to acclimate to changes in salinity through independent regulation of Na+, Cl- and urea levels. This suggests that many of the presumed stenohaline marine elasmobranchs could in fact be described as partially euryhaline. The contributions of Thomas Thorson in the 1970s demonstrated the osmoregulatory strategy of a fully euryhaline elasmobranch, the bull shark, Carcharhinus leucas, and more recent investigations have examined the mechanisms behind this strategy in the euryhaline elasmobranch, Dasyatis sabina. Both partially euryhaline and fully euryhaline species utilise the same physiological processes to control urea, Na+ and Cl- levels within the body fluids. The role of the gills, kidney, liver, rectal gland and drinking process is discussed in relation to the endocrine control of urea, Na+ and Cl- levels as elasmobranchs acclimate to different environmental salinities. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalization

The problem of asset price bubbles, and more generally of instability in the financial system, has been a matter of concern since the 1980s but has only recently moved to the center of the macroeconomic policy debate. The main concern with bubbles arises when they burst, imposing losses on investors holding the bubble assets and potentially on the financial institutions that have extended credit to them. Asset price volatility is an inevitable consequence of financial market liberalization and, in extreme cases, generates asset price bubbles, the bursting of which can impose substantial economic and social costs. Policy responses within the existing liberalized financial system face daunting levels of uncertainty and risk. Given the pattern of increasing asset market volatility over recent decades and the policy issues highlighted in this paper, the future looks uncertain. Another significant cycle of asset price movements, especially in one of the major economies, could see a fundamental revision of thinking about the costs and benefits of liberalized financial systems.

Composite auction method for suppressing unreasonable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market

The existence of undesirable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market requires an efficient auction mechanism. However, many of the existing auction mechanism have difficulties in suppressing such unreasonable price spikes effectively. A new auction mechanism is proposed to suppress effectively unreasonable price spikes in a competitive electricity market. It optimally combines system marginal price auction and pay as bid auction mechanisms. A threshold value is determined to activate the switching between the marginal price auction and the proposed composite auction. Basically when the system marginal price is higher than the threshold value, the composite auction for high price electricity market is activated. The winning electricity sellers will sell their electricity at the system marginal price or their own bid prices, depending on their rights of being paid at the system marginal price and their offers' impact on suppressing undesirable price spikes. Such economic stimuli discourage sellers from practising economic and physical withholdings. Multiple price caps are proposed to regulate strong market power. We also compare other auction mechanisms to highlight the characteristics of the proposed one. Numerical simulation using the proposed auction mechanism is given to illustrate the procedure of this new auction mechanism.

Reference values for whole body and cerebral multi-frequency bio-impedance data in neonates less than 12 h postpartum

Multiple frequency bio-electrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) may be useful for monitoring fluid balance in newborn infants or to provide early prediction of the outcome following perinatal asphyxia. A reference range of data is needed for identification of babies with abnormal impedance values. This was a cross-sectional observational study in 84 term and near-term healthy neonates less than 12 h postpartum. Whole body and cerebral MFBIA measurements were performed at the bedside in the post-natal ward. Gestational age, post-natal age, gender, birthweight, head circumference and foot length measures were recorded. Reference values for impedance at the characteristic frequency (Z(C)) and resistance at zero frequency (R-0) are reported for whole body and cerebral impedance. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) were observed between whole body impedance and birthweight, footlength and head circumference. Females had a significantly higher whole body R0 than males. Cerebral impedance did not correlate significantly with any of the demographic measures and therewere no gender differences observed for cerebral impedance. The reference range for whole body multi-frequency bio-impedance values in term and near-term infants within the first 12 h postpartum can be calculated from the footlength (FL) using the following equations: Z(C) = (942.9 - 4.818* FL) +/- 124.6 Omega; R-0 = (1042 - 4.520(*)FL) +/- 135.5 Omega. For cerebral impedance the reference range is 29.5-48.7 Omega for Z(C) and 33.7-58.0 Omega for R-0.