Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Maintenance Strategies for used equipment under lease

Abstract: Purpose – The aim of this research is to determine the optimal upgrade and preventive maintenance actions that minimize the total expected cost (maintenance costs+penalty costs). Design/methodology/approach – The problem is a four-parameter optimization with two parameters being k-dimensional. The optimal solution is obtained by using a four-stage approach where at each stage a one-parameter optimization is solved. Findings – Upgrading action is an extra option before the lease of used equipment, in addition to preventive maintenance action. Upgrading action makes equipment younger and preventive maintenance action lowers the ROCOF. Practical implications – There is a growing trend towards leasing equipment rather than owning it. The lease contract contains penalties if the equipment fails often and repairs are done within reasonable time period. This implies that the lessor needs to look at optimal preventive maintenance strategies in the case of new equipment lease, and upgrade actions plus preventive maintenance in the case of used equipment lease. The paper deals with this topic and is of great significant to business involved with leasing equipment. Originality/value – Nowadays many organizations are interested in leasing equipment and outsourcing maintenance. The model in this paper addresses the preventive maintenance problem for leased equipment. It provides an approach to dealing with this problem.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimensioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation which improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

All in Good Time: Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity

Since their discovery 150 years ago, Neanderthals have been considered incapable of behavioural change and innovation. Traditional synchronic approaches to the study of Neanderthal behaviour have perpetuated this view and shaped our understanding of their lifeways and eventual extinction. In this thesis I implement an innovative diachronic approach to the analysis of Neanderthal faunal extraction, technology and symbolic behaviour as contained in the archaeological record of the critical period between 80,000 and 30,000 years BP. The thesis demonstrates patterns of change in Neanderthal behaviour which are at odds with traditional perspectives and which are consistent with an interpretation of increasing behavioural complexity over time, an idea that has been suggested but never thoroughly explored in Neanderthal archaeology. Demonstrating an increase in behavioural complexity in Neanderthals provides much needed new data with which to fuel the debate over the behavioural capacities of Neanderthals and the first appearance of Modern Human Behaviour in Europe. It supports the notion that Neanderthal populations were active agents of behavioural innovation prior to the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe and, ultimately, that they produced an early Upper Palaeolithic cultural assemblage (the Châtelperronian) independent of modern humans. Overall, this thesis provides an initial step towards the development of a quantitative approach to measuring behavioural complexity which provides fresh insights into the cognitive and behavioural capabilities of Neanderthals.

Turbulent Time and Length Scale Measurements in High-Velocity Open Channel Flows

In high-velocity open channel flows, the measurements of air-water flow properties are complicated by the strong interactions between the flow turbulence and the entrained air. In the present study, an advanced signal processing of traditional single- and dual-tip conductivity probe signals is developed to provide further details on the air-water turbulent level, time and length scales. The technique is applied to turbulent open channel flows on a stepped chute conducted in a large-size facility with flow Reynolds numbers ranging from 3.8 E+5 to 7.1 E+5. The air water flow properties presented some basic characteristics that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to previous skimming flow studies. Some self-similar relationships were observed systematically at both macroscopic and microscopic levels. These included the distributions of void fraction, bubble count rate, interfacial velocity and turbulence level at a macroscopic scale, and the auto- and cross-correlation functions at the microscopic level. New correlation analyses yielded a characterisation of the large eddies advecting the bubbles. Basic results included the integral turbulent length and time scales. The turbulent length scales characterised some measure of the size of large vortical structures advecting air bubbles in the skimming flows, and the data were closely related to the characteristic air-water depth Y90. In the spray region, present results highlighted the existence of an upper spray region for C > 0.95 to 0.97 in which the distributions of droplet chord sizes and integral advection scales presented some marked differences with the rest of the flow.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.

Comparison of BR and QR Eigenvalue Algorithms for Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis

The BR algorithm is a novel and efficient method to find all eigenvalues of upper Hessenberg matrices and has never been applied to eigenanalysis for power system small signal stability. This paper analyzes differences between the BR and the QR algorithms with performance comparison in terms of CPU time based on stopping criteria and storage requirement. The BR algorithm utilizes accelerating strategies to improve its performance when computing eigenvalues of narrowly banded, nearly tridiagonal upper Hessenberg matrices. These strategies significantly reduce the computation time at a reasonable level of precision. Compared with the QR algorithm, the BR algorithm requires fewer iteration steps and less storage space without depriving of appropriate precision in solving eigenvalue problems of large-scale power systems. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency of the BR algorithm in pursuing eigenanalysis tasks of 39-, 68-, 115-, 300-, and 600-bus systems. Experiment results suggest that the BR algorithm is a more efficient algorithm for large-scale power system small signal stability eigenanalysis.

Dependence of transient dynamics in a class-C laser upon variation of inversion with time

The transient statistics of a gain-switched coherently pumped class-C laser displays a linear correlation between the first passage time and subsequent peak intensity. Measurements are reported showing a positive or negative sign of this linear correlation, controlled through the switching time and the laser detuning. Further measurements of the small-signal laser gain combined with calculations involving a three-level laser model indicate that this sign fundamentally depends upon the way the laser inversion varies during the gain switching, despite the added dynamics of the laser polarization in the class-C laser. [S1050-2947(97)07112-6].

Do migrants' remittances decline over time? Evidence from Tongans and Western Samoans in Australia

There is concern that Pacific Island economies dependent on remittances of migrants will endure foreign exchange shortages and falling living standards as remittance levels fall because of lower migration rates and the belief that migrants' willingness to remit declines over time. The empirical validity of the remittance-decay hypothesis has never been tested. From survey data on Tongan and Western Samoan migrants in Sydney, this paper estimates remittance functions using multivariate regression analysis. It is found that the remittance-decay hypothesis has no empirical validity, and migrants are motivated by factors other than altruistic family support, including asset accumulation and investment back home.

Experimental control of single-mode laser chaos by using continuous, time-delayed feedback

Control of chaos in the single-mode optically pumped far-infrared (NH3)-N-15 laser is experimentally demonstrated using continuous time-delay control. Both the Lorenz spiral chaos and the detuned period-doubling chaos exhibited by the laser have been controlled. While the laser is in the Lorenz spiral chaos regime the chaos has been controlled both such that the laser output is cw, with corrections of only a fraction of a percent necessary to keep it there, and to period one. The laser has also been controlled while in the period-doubling chaos regime, to both the period-one and -two states.

Dissociation between skin conductance orienting and secondary task reaction time: Time course with a visual discrimination task

A dissociation between two putative measures of resource allocation skin conductance responding, and secondary task reaction time (RT), has been observed during auditory discrimination tasks. Four experiments investigated the time course of the dissociation effect with a visual discrimination task. participants were presented with circles and ellipses and instructed to count the number of longer-than-usual presentations of one shape (task-relevant) and to ignore presentations of the other shape (task-irrelevant). Concurrent with this task, participants made a speeded motor response to an auditory probe. Experiment 1 showed that skin conductance responses were larger during task-relevant stimuli than during task-irrelevant stimuli, whereas RT to probes presented at 150 ms following shape onset was slower during task-irrelevant stimuli. Experiments 2 to 4 found slower RT during task-irrelevant stimuli at probes presented at 300 ms before shape onset until 150 ms following shape onset. At probes presented 3,000 and 4,000 ms following shape onset probe RT was slower during task-relevant stimuli. The similarities between the observed time course and the so-called psychological refractory period (PRF) effect are discussed.

In vivo dynamics of axon pathfinding in the Drosophila CNS: A time-lapse study of an identified motoneuron

We developed a system for time-lapse observation of identified neurons in the central nervous system (CNS) of the Drosophila embryo. Using this system, we characterize the dynamics of filopodia and axon growth of the motorneuron RP2 as it navigates anteriorly through the CNS and then laterally along the intersegmental nerve (ISN) into the periphery. We find that both axonal extension and turning occur primarily through the process of filopodial dilation. In addition, we used the GAL4-UAS system to express the fusion protein Tau-GFP in a subset of neurons, allowing us to correlate RP2's patterns of growth with a subset of axons in its environment. In particular, we show that RP2's sharp lateral turn is coincident with the nascent ISN. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.