Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

The Australian insolvency regime revisited: a precis of the next leap forward

Australian corporate insolvency laws contained within Chapter 5 of the Corporations Act are currently being reviewed with respect to four principal areas identified by Australian Government Treasury. The four themes of review include employee ‘benefit’ enhancements; seeking to deter misconduct of company officers; rules around insolvency practitioner disclosure with respect to their remuneration and related independence issues; and some minor proposed changes to the voluntary administration procedure, widely regarded as requiring only minor adjustment. At this time, the draft legislation is not available for general release and is being discussed within the Australian Government appointed Insolvency Law Advisory Group. The next steps are public comment for review of draft legislation and then operation of the legislative change. These are expected to occur in 2007. This paper seeks to outline the likely issues associated with the expected reforms of the Australian insolvency regime.

Accelerated leap methods for simulating discrete stochastic chemical kinetics

Biologists are increasingly conscious of the critical role that noise plays in cellular functions such as genetic regulation, often in connection with fluctuations in small numbers of key regulatory molecules. This has inspired the development of models that capture this fundamentally discrete and stochastic nature of cellular biology - most notably the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The SSA simulates a temporally homogeneous, discrete-state, continuous-time Markov process, and of course the corresponding probabilities and numbers of each molecular species must all remain positive. While accurately serving this purpose, the SSA can be computationally inefficient due to very small time stepping so faster approximations such as the Poisson and Binomial τ-leap methods have been suggested. This work places these leap methods in the context of numerical methods for the solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson noise. This allows analogues of Euler-Maruyuma, Milstein and even higher order methods to be developed through the Itô-Taylor expansions as well as similar derivative-free Runge-Kutta approaches. Numerical results demonstrate that these novel methods compare favourably with existing techniques for simulating biochemical reactions by more accurately capturing crucial properties such as the mean and variance than existing methods.

The 2001 Australian Galaxy Cluster Workshop

The first 'Australian Cluster Workshop' was held at the Australia Telescope National Facility in Sydney on 2001 February 6. The aim of the workshop was to bring together the many and varied groups working on clusters of galaxies in Australia, to forge newmulti-disciplinary links, and to generate enthusiasm and support for new cluster work and further cluster meetings in Australia. In this paper I present a summary of the workshop as well as some additional review material intended to place current Australian research in a broader perspective, looking ahead to the major issues still to be addressed.

Analytical solution and numerical model for the interface in a stratified long wave system

For a two layered long wave propagation, linearized governing equations, which were derived earlier from the Euler equations of mass and momentum assuming negligible friction and interfacial mixing are solved analytically using Fourier transform. For the solution, variations of upper layer water level is assumed to be sinosoidal having known amplitude and variations of interface level is solved. As the governing equations are too complex to solve it analytically, density of upper layer fluid is assumed as very close to the density of lower layer fluid to simplify the lower layer equation. A numerical model is developed using the staggered leap-forg scheme for computation of water level and discharge in one dimensional propagation having known amplitude for the variations of upper layer water level and interface level to be solved. For the numerical model, water levels (upper layer and interface) at both the boundaries are assumed to be known from analytical solution. Results of numerical model are verified by comparing with the analytical solutions for different time period. Good agreements between analytical solution and numerical model are found for the stated boundary condition. The reliability of the developed numerical model is discussed, using it for different a (ratio of density of fluid in the upper layer to that in the lower layer) and p (ratio of water depth in the lower layer to that in the upper layer) values. It is found that as ‘CX’ increases amplification of interface also increases for same upper layer amplitude. Again for a constant lower layer depth, as ‘p’ increases amplification of interface. also increases for same upper layer amplitude.

Facies architecture of the CRP-3 drillhole, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica

The Cenozoic Victoria Land Basin (VLB) stratigraphic section penetrated by CRP-3 is mostly of Early Oligocene age. It contains an array of lithofacies comprising fine-grained mudrocks, interlaminated and interbedded mudrocks/sandstones, mud-rich and mud-poor sandstones, conglomerates and diametites that are together interpreted as the products of shallow marine to possibly non-marine environments of deposition, affected by the periodic advance and retreat of tidewater glaciers. This lithofacies assemblage can be readily rationalised using the facies scheme designed originally for CRP-2/2A, and published previously. The uppermost 330 metres below sea floor (mbsf) shows a cyclical arrangement of lithofacies also similar to that recognised throughout CRP-2/2A, and interpreted to reflect cyclical variations in relative sea-level driven by ice volume fluctuations ("Motif A"). Between 330 and 480 mbsf, a series of less clearly cyclical units, generally fining-upward but nonetheless incorporating a significant subset of the facies assemblage, has been identified and noted in the Initial Report as "Motif B. Below 480 mbsf, the section is arranged into a repetitive succession of fining-upward units, each of which comprises dolerite clast conglomerate at the base passing upward into relatively thick intervals of sandstones. The cycles present down 480 mbsf are defined as sequences, each interpreted to record cyclical variation of relative sea-level. The thickness distribution of sequences in CRP-3 provides some insights into the geological variables controlling sediment accumulation in the Early Oligocene section. The uppermost part of the section in CRP-3 comprises two or three thick, complete sequences that show a broadly symmetrical arrangement of lithofacies (similar to Sequences 9-11 in CRP-2/2A). This suggests a period of relatively rapid tectonic subsidence, which allowed preservation of the complete facies cycle. Below Sequence 3, however, is a considerable interval of thin, incomplete and erosionally truncated sequences (4-23), which incorporates both the remainder of Motif A sequences and all Motif B sequences recognised. The thinner and more truncated sequences suggest sediment accumulation under conditions of reduced accommodation, and given the lack of evidence for glacial conditions (see Powell et al., this volume) tends to argue for a period of reduced tectonic subsidence. The section below 480 mbsf consists of a series of fining-upward, conglomerate to sandstone intervals which cannot be readily interpreted in terms of relative sea-level change. A relatively mudrock-rich interval above the basal conglomerate/breccia (782-762 mbsf) may record initial flooding of the basin during early rift subsidence. The lithostratigraphy summarised above has been linked to seismic reflection data using depth conversion techniques (Henrys et al., this volume). The three uppermost reflectors ("o", "p" and "q") correlate to the package of thick sequences 1-3, and several deeper reflectors can also be correlated to sequence boundaries. The package of thick Sequences 1-3 shows a sheet-like cross-sectional geometry on seismic reflection lines, unlike the similar package recognised in CRP-2/2A.

Depositional environments for strata cored in CRP-3 (Cape Roberts Project), Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica: palaeoglaciological and palaeoclimatological inferences

Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ∼ 116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occuring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global δ18O and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.