Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation modelling applied to runoff modelling using mapscript

Dynamic spatial analysis addresses computational aspects of space–time processing. This paper describes the development of a spatial analysis tool and modelling framework that together offer a solution for simulating landscape processes. A better approach to integrating landscape spatial analysis with Geographical Information Systems is advocated in this paper. Enhancements include special spatial operators and map algebra language constructs to handle dispersal and advective flows over landscape surfaces. These functional components to landscape modelling are developed in a modular way and are linked together in a modelling framework that performs dynamic simulation. The concepts and modelling framework are demonstrated using a hydrological modelling example. The approach provides a modelling environment for scientists and land resource managers to write and to visualize spatial process models with ease.

Selection of species and provenances for low-rainfall areas: physiological responses of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia to seasonal conditions in subtropical Queensland

Responses of stomatal conductance (g(s)) and net photosynthesis (A) to changes in soil water availability, photosynthetic photon flux density (Q), air temperature (1) and leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit (D) were investigated in 4-year-old trees of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely, and two dry inland provenances (Coominglah and Hungry Hills) and a humid coastal provenance (Wolvi) of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. between April 2001 and April 2002 in southeast Queensland, Australia. There were minimal differences in A, g, and water relations variables among the coastal and inland provenances of E. cloeziana but large differences between E. argophloia and E. cloeziana. E. argophloia and to a lesser extent the Hungry Hills (inland) provenance of E. cloeziana maintained relatively higher pre-dawn water potential (psi(pd)) during the dry season suggesting possible access to water at depth. Simple phenomenological models of stomatal conductance as a function of Q, T and D explained 60% of variation in gs in E. cloeziana and more than 75% in E. argophloia, when seasonal effect was incorporated in the model. A Ball-Berry model for net photosynthesis explained between 70 and 80% of observed variation in A in both species. These results have implications in matching the dry and humid provenances of E. cloeziana and E. argophloia to suitable sites in subtropical environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adventitious root formation in cuttings of Backhousia citriodora F. Muell 2. Seasonal influences of temperature, rainfall, flowering and auxins on the stock plant

A 2-year study was carried out on established trees at two sites in southeastern Queensland, Australia, to identify environmental factors that influenced rooting of Backhousia citriodora from cuttings. Complex interactions of rainfall events above 20 mm from the preceding month and mean maximum temperature on stock plants resulted in a correlation with rooting success of r = 0.81 and 0.74 for sites at The University Of Queensland, Gatton Campus, and Cedar Glen, respectively. A more detailed investigation under controlled environmental conditions showed that maintaining stock plants at temperatures between 10 and 30degreesC had no direct effect on rooting capacity. However, temperature was correlated with growth, which may have an indirect effect on root formation. In spring floral initiation was found to only delay rooting and had no effect on the final rooting percentage. A series of seasonal experiments demonstrated that application of the auxins indole-3-acetic acid, indole-3-butyric acid and napthaleneacetic acid over a range of concentrations (1000-8000 mug/ml) did not significantly increase rooting compared to the control and there is no practical advantage in applying auxins. Seasonal results and the temperature experiment also suggest that under a glasshouse environment with higher temperatures in winter and an adequate supply of water, B. citriodora cuttings can be successfully rooted over the whole year. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Management of a previously eroded tropical Alfisol with herbaceous legumes: Soil loss and physical properties under mound tillage

A study was carried out on a previously eroded Oxic Paleustalf in Ibadan, southwestern Nigeria to determine the extent of soil degradation under mound tillage with some herbaceous legumes and residue management methods. A series of factorial experiments was carried out on 12 existing runoff plots. The study commenced in 1996 after a 5-year natural fallow. Mound tillage was introduced in 1997 till 1999. The legumes - Vigna unguiculata (cowpea), Mucuna pruriens and Pueraria phaseoloides - were intercropped with maize in 1996 and 1998 while yam was planted alone in 1997 and 1999. This paper covers 1997-1999. At the end of each year, residues were either burned or mulched on respective plots. Soil loss, runoff, variations in mound height, bulk density, soil water retention and sorptivity were measured. Cumulative runoff was similar among interactions of legume and residue management in 1997 (57-151 mm) and 1999 (206-397 mm). However, in 1998, cumulative runoff of 95 mm observed for Mucuna-burned residue was significantly greater than the 46 mm observed for cowpea-burned residue and the 39-51 mm observed for mulched residues of cowpea, Mucuna and Pueraria. Cumulative soil loss of 7.6 Mg ha(-1) observed for Mucuna-burned residue in 1997 was significantly greater than those for Pueraria-mulched (0.9 Mg ha(-1)) and Mucuna-mulched (1.4 Mg ha(-1)) residues whereas in 1999 it was similar to soil loss from cowpea treatments and Pueraria-burned residue (2.3-5.3 Mg ha(-1)). There were no significant differences in soil loss in 1998 (1-3.2 Mg ha(-1)) whereas Mucuna-burned residue had a greater soil loss (28.6 Mg ha(-1)) than mulched cowpea (6.9 Mg ha(-1)) and Pueraria (5.4 Ms ha(-1)). Mound heights (23 cm average) decreased non-linearly with cumulative rainfall. A cumulative rainfall of 500 mm removed 0.3-2.3 cm of soil from mounds in 1997, 3.5-6.9 cm in 1998 and 2.3-4.6 cm in 1999, indicating that (detached but less transported) soil from mounds was far higher than observed soil loss in each year. Soil water retention was improved at potentials ranging from -1 to -1500 kPa by Mucuna-mulched residue compared to the various burned-residue treatments. Also, mound sorptivity at -1 cm water head (14.3 cm h(-1/2)) was higher than furrow sorptivity (8.5 cm h(-1/2)), indicating differences in hydraulic characteristics between mound and furrow. Pueraria-mulched residues for mounds had the highest sorptivity of 17.24 cm h(-1/2), whereas the least value of 6.96 cm h(-1/2) was observed in furrow of Mucuna-burned residue. Pueraria phas eoloides was considered the best option for soil conservation on the previously eroded soil, cultivated with mound tillage. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall salt accessions in the Queensland Murray-Darling Basin

Two east - west transects were established in southern Queensland to quantify rainfall inputs of chloride and associated ions. Electrical conductivity, pH, and major and minor ions were measured at 9 sites within the Queensland Murray - Darling Basin and 1 site to the east. Variability at some sites was high, possibly a function of the sample collection method. Ionic concentrations decreased with distance inland, a trend similar to that observed elsewhere in Australia, although values closer to the coast were higher than observed in southern and western Australia. Equations to predict both annual average rainfall chloride mass deposition and total salt deposition were derived.