Limited effect of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on molecular diversity in a rain forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae

To examine the effects of recent habitat fragmentation, we assayed genetic diversity in a rain forest endemic lizard, the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), from seven forest fragments and five sites in continuous forest on the Atherton tableland of northeastern Queensland, Australia. The rain forest in this region was fragmented by logging and clearing for dairy farms in the early 1900s and most forest fragments studied have been isolated for 50-80 years or nine to 12 skink generations. We genotyped 411 individuals at nine microsatellite DNA loci and found fewer alleles per locus in prickly forest skinks from small rain forest fragments and a lower ratio of allele number to allele size range in forest fragments than in continuous forest, indicative of a decrease in effective population size. In contrast, and as expected for populations with small neighbourhood sizes, neither heterozygosity nor variance in allele size differed between fragments and sites in continuous forests. Considering measures of among population differentiation, there was no increase in F-ST among fragments and a significant isolation by distance pattern was identified across all 12 sites. However, the relationship between genetic (F-ST) and geographical distance was significantly stronger for continuous forest sites than for fragments, consistent with disruption of gene flow among the latter. The observed changes in genetic diversity within and among populations are small, but in the direction predicted by the theory of genetic erosion in recently fragmented populations. The results also illustrate the inherent difficulty in detecting genetic consequences of recent habitat fragmentation, even in genetically variable species, and especially when effective population size and dispersal rates are low.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Locating cosmopolitanism - Between humanist ideal and grounded social category

The emerging interdisciplinary body of cosmopolitanism research has established a promising field of theoretical endeavour by bringing into focus questions concerning globalization, nationalism, population movements, cultural values and identity. Yet, despite its potential importance, what characterizes recent cosmopolitanism research is an idealist sentiment that considerably marginalizes the significance of the structures of nation-state and citizenship, while leaving unspecified the empirical sociological dimensions of cosmopolitanism itself. Our critique aims at making cosmopolitanism a more productive analytical tool. We argue for a cosmopolitanism that consists of conceptually and empirically identifiable values and outlooks. While there has been some progress made in this direction in the recent literature on cosmopolitanism, most writing still considers cosmopolitanism as something so delicate that it cannot be measured. Furthermore, in order to appreciate the full currency of the concept, we argue that researchers must not only agree on some common determinants of cosmopolitanism and cosmopolitan dispositions, but also ground their analyses of cosmopolitanism in the context of enduring nation-state structures.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

From complexity to category: Responding to diagnostic uncertainties of autistic spectrum disorders

Objective: Recent data from Education Queensland has identified rising numbers of children receiving diagnoses of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD). Faced with funding diagnostic pressures, in clinical situations that are complex and inherently uncertain, it is possible that specialists err on the side of a positive diagnosis. This study examines the extent to which possible overinclusion of ASD diagnosis may exist in the presence of uncertainty and factors potentially related to this practice in Queensland. Methods: Using anonymous self-report, all Queensland child psychiatrists and paediatricians who see paediatric patients with development/behavioural problems were surveyed and asked whether they had ever specified an ASD diagnosis in the presence of diagnostic uncertainty. Using logistic regression, elicited responses to the diagnostic uncertainty questions were related to other clinical- and practice-related characteristics. Results: Overall, 58% of surveyed psychiatrists and paediatricians indicated that, in the face of diagnostic uncertainty, they had erred on the side of providing an ASD diagnosis for educational ascertainment and 36% of clinicians had provided an autism diagnosis for Carer's Allowance when Centrelink diagnostic specifications had not been met. Conclusion: In the absence of definitive biological markers, ASD remains a behavioural diagnosis that is often complex and uncertain. In response to systems that demand a categorical diagnostic response, specialists are providing ASD diagnoses, even when uncertain. The motivation for this practice appears to be a clinical risk/benefit analysis of what will achieve the best outcomes for children. It is likely that these practices will continue unless systems change eligibility to funding based on functional impairment rather than medical diagnostic categories.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Demographic category membership and leadership in small groups: A social identity analysis

Developing the social identity theory of leadership (e.g., [Hogg, M. A. (2001). A social identity theory of leadership. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5, 184-200]), an experiment (N=257) tested the hypothesis that as group members identify more strongly with their group (salience) their evaluations of leadership effectiveness become more strongly influenced by the extent to which their demographic stereotype-based impressions of their leader match the norm of the group (prototypicality). Participants, with more or less traditional gender attitudes (orientation), were members, under high or low group salience conditions (salience), of non-interactive laboratory groups that had instrumental or expressive group norms (norm), and a male or female leader (leader gender). As predicted, these four variables interacted significantly to affect perceptions of leadership effectiveness. Reconfiguration of the eight conditions formed by orientation, norm and leader gender produced a single prototypicality variable. Irrespective of participant gender, prototypical leaders were considered more effective in high then low salience groups, and in high salience groups prototypical leaders were more effective than less prototypical leaders. Alternative explanations based on status characteristics and role incongruity theory do not account well for the findings. Implications of these results for the glass ceiling effect and for a wider social identity analysis of the impact of demographic group membership on leadership in small groups are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.