Epidemiology of recreational exposure to freshwater cyanobacteria - an international prospective cohort study

Background: Case studies and anecdotal reports have documented a range of acute illnesses associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in recreational waters. The epidemiological data to date are limited; we sought to improve on the design of some previously conducted studies in order to facilitate revision and refinement of guidelines for exposure to cyanobacteria in recreational waters. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the incidence of acute symptoms in individuals exposed, through recreational activities, to low ( cell surface area < 2.4 mm(2)/mL), medium ( 2.4 - 12.0 mm(2)/mL) and high (> 12.0 mm(2)/mL) levels of cyanobacteria in lakes and rivers in southeast Queensland, the central coast area of New South Wales, and northeast and central Florida. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed; models adjusted for region, age, smoking, prior history of asthma, hay fever or skin disease ( eczema or dermatitis) and clustering by household. Results: Of individuals approached, 3,595 met the eligibility criteria, 3,193 (89%) agreed to participate and 1,331 (37%) completed both the questionnaire and follow-up interview. Respiratory symptoms were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.1 - 4.0) times more likely to be reported by subjects exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria than by those exposed to low levels. Similarly, when grouping all reported symptoms, individuals exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria were 1.7 ( 95% CI: 1.0 - 2.8) times more likely to report symptoms than their low-level cyanobacteria-exposed counterparts. Conclusion: A significant increase in reporting of minor self-limiting symptoms, particularly respiratory symptoms, was associated with exposure to higher levels of cyanobacteria of mixed genera. We suggest that exposure to cyanobacteria based on total cell surface area above 12 mm(2)/mL could result in increased incidence of symptoms. The potential for severe, life-threatening cyanobacteria-related illness is likely to be greater in recreational waters that have significant levels of cyanobacterial toxins, so future epidemiological investigations should be directed towards recreational exposure to cyanotoxins.

Cigarette smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease in two prospective studies

An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

Coffee and alcohol consumption and the risk of pancreatic cancer in two prospective United States cohorts

Although most prospective cohort studies do not support an association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer, the findings for alcohol are inconsistent. Recently, a large prospective cohort study of women reported statistically significant elevations in risk of pancreatic cancer for both coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption. We obtained data on coffee, alcohol, and other dietary factors using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires administered at baseline (1986 in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1980 in the Nurses’ Health Study) and in subsequent follow-up questionnaires. Data on other risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including cigarette smoking, were also available. Individuals with a history of cancer at study initiation were excluded from all of the analyses. During the 1,907,222 person-years of follow-up, 288 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed. The data were analyzed separately for each cohort, and results were pooled to compute overall relative risks (RR). Neither coffee nor alcohol intakes were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in either cohort or after pooling the results (pooled RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.27–1.43, for >3 cups of coffee/day versus none; and pooled RR, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.57–1.76, for >=30 grams of alcohol/day versus none). The associations did not change with analyses examining different latency periods for coffee and alcohol. Similarly, no statistically significant associations were observed for intakes of tea, decaffeinated coffee, total caffeine, or alcoholic beverages. Data from these two large cohorts do not support any overall association between coffee intake or alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Injury risk from popular childhood physical activities: results from an Australian primary school cohort

Background: Children engage in various physical activities that pose different injury risks. However, the lack of adequate data on exposure has meant that these risks have not been quantified or compared in young children aged 5-12 years. Objectives: To measure exposure to popular activities among Australian primary school children and to quantify the associated injury risks. Method: The Childhood Injury Prevention Study prospectively followed up a cohort of randomly selected Australian primary and preschool children aged 5-12 years. Time (min) engaged in various physical activities was measured using a parent-completed 7-day diary. All injuries over 12 months were reported to the study. All data on exposure and injuries were coded using the International classification of external causes of injury. Injury rates per 1000 h of exposure were calculated for the most popular activities. Results: Complete diaries and data on injuries were available for 744 children. Over 12 months, 314 injuries relating to physical activity outside of school were reported. The highest injury risks per exposure time occurred for tackle-style football (2.18/1000 h), wheeled activities (1.72/1000 h) and tennis (1.19/1000 h). Overall, boys were injured more often than girls; however, the differences were non-significant or reversed for some activities including soccer, trampolining and team ball sports. Conclusion: Although the overall injury rate was low in this prospective cohort, the safety of some popular childhood activities can be improved so that the benefits may be enjoyed with fewer negative consequences.

Living with osteoarthritis: Patient expenditures, health status, and social impact

Objective. To determine out-of-pocket expenditures related to osteoarthritis (OA) and to explore whether demographic details, health status scores (Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form [SF-36] and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC]), or perception of social effect were expenditure determinants. Methods. A prospective cohort study of community-dwelling subjects with OA completed 4 consecutive 3-month cost diaries. In addition, subjects completed the SF-36 and WOMAC at baseline and at 12 months. Social impact at baseline was collected. Four groups categorized by age and sex were compared. Patients undergoing joint replacement were excluded. Results. Differences in health status were defined more by age than by sex, especially for physical function. The costs to the patients were high, particularly for women, who spent more on medications and special equipment. Women also reported receiving more assistance from family and friends. Higher disease-related expenditures were associated with greater pain levels, poorer social function and mental health, and longer duration of disease. Significant independent predictors of total patient expenditures related to OA were being female and having joint stiffness. Conclusion. Despite having heavily subsidized health care and access to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, out-of-pocket costs for patients with OA in Australia are considerable. Higher expenditures for patients with OA are related to more advanced disease, especially for women.

Early reoperation for acute dysphagia following laparoscopic fundoplication

Background: A small number of patients develop acute severe dysphagia for which reoperation is necessary within 10 days of laparoscopic fundoplication. The aim of this study was to identify clinical variables that might predict the likelihood of this condition occurring, such that it could be avoided in the future. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study from three tertiary referral centres, using reoperation for acute dysphagia as the main outcome variable. Gastrointestinal symptom rating scale, and psychological well-being index questionnaires were undertaken before laparoscopic fundoplication, and dysphagia scores were determined before operation and 1 year later. Standard preoperative assessment included gastroscopy, oesophageal manometry and pH studies. Results: Twelve (1.9 per cent) of the 617 patients suffered acute dysphagia, which was predicted by older age and female sex, and resulted in a longer duration of hospital stay. This condition was not predicted by any other demographic, clinical, investigative or operative variables. Conclusions: The study did not identify useful criteria by which severe acute dysphagia could be anticipated and thereby avoided following laparoscopic fundoplication.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Perceived stress as a predictor of the self-reported new diagnosis of symptomatic CHD in older women

This article describes one aspect of a prospective cohort study of 10,432 women aged between 70 and 75 years. After a 3-year period, 503 women self-reported a new diagnosis by a doctor of angina or myocardial infarction (symptomatic coronary heart disease [CHD]). Time one psychosocial variables (Duke Social Support Index, time pressure, Perceived Stress Scale, Mental Health Index, having a partner, educational attainment, and location of residence) were analyzed using univariate binary logistic regression for their ability to predict subsequent symptomatic CHD. Of these variables, the Duke Social Support Index, Perceived Stress Scale and the Mental Health Index were found to be significant predictors of symptomatic CHID diagnosis. Only the Perceived Stress Scale, however, proved to be a significant independent predictor. After controlling for time one nonpsychosocial variables, as well as the frequency of family doctor visits, perceived stress remained a significant predictor of the new diagnosis of symptomatic CHD in this cohort of older women over a 3-year period.

Sex- and race-related differences in cross-sectional geometry and bone density of the femoral mid-shaft in older adults

Background : Femoral shaft fracture incidence increases in older adults and is associated with low-energy trauma. Apart from bone density, the distribution and size of bone contributes to its strength. Aim : To examine if bone geometry and density of the femoral mid-shaft in older adults differs by sex and race, we studied 197 White women, 225 Black women, 242 White men, and 148 Black men aged 70-79 years participating in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study; a prospective cohort study in the USA. A secondary purpose of the study was to examine the association of site-specific muscle and fat to bone geometry and density. Subjects and methods : Subjects were community-dwelling and reported no difficulty walking one-quarter of a mile or climbing stairs. Mid-femoral volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg cm -3 ), total area (TA), cortical area (CA), medullary area (MA), cross-sectional moments of inertia (CSMI: I x , I y , J ), and muscle and fat areas (cm 2 ) were determined by computed tomography (CT; GE CT-9800, 10 mm slice thickness). Results : vBMD was greater in men than women with no difference by race ( p < 0.001). Bone areas and area moments of inertia were also greater in men than women ( p < 0.001), with Black women having higher values than White women for TA and CA. Standardizing geometric parameters for body size differences by dividing by powers of femur length did not negate the sex difference for TA and MA. Significant differences ( p < 0.05) among the four groups also remained for I x and J . Mid-thigh muscle area was an independent contributor to TA in all groups (Std beta = 0.181-0.351, p < 0.05) as well as CA in women (Std beta = 0.246-0.254, p < 0.01) and CSMI in White women (Std beta = 0.175-0.185, p < 0.05). Further, muscle area was a significant contributor to vBMD in Black women. Conclusion : These results indicate that bone geometry and density of the femoral diaphysis differs primarily by sex, rather than race, in older well-functioning adults. In addition, site-specific muscle area appears to have a potential contributory role to bone geometry parameters, especially in women.

Lung cancer rates in men and women with comparable histories of smoking

Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.

An evaluation of a telephone-based postnatal support intervention for infant feeding in a regional Australian city

Background: Postnatal breastfeeding support in the form of home visits is difficult to accommodate in regional Australia, where hospitals often deal with harsh economic constraints in a context where they are required to provide services to geographically, dispersed consumers. This study evaluated a predominately telephone-based support service called the Infant Feeding Support Service. Methods: A prospective cohort design was used to compare data for 696 women giving birth in two regional hospitals (one public, one private) and participating in the support service between January and July 2003 with data from a cohort of 625 women who gave birth in those hospitals before the introduction of the support service. Each mother participating in the support service was assigned a lactation consultant. First contact occurred 48 hours after discharge, and approximately it weekly thereafter for 4 it weeks. Breastfeeding duration was measured at 3 months postpartum. Results: For women from the private hospital, the support service improved exclusive breastfeeding duration to 4.5 weeks postpartum, but these improvements were not evident at 3 months postpartum. No effects were observed for mothers from the public hospital. Quantitative and qualitative data demonstrated high levels of client satisfaction with the support service. Conclusions: This small-scale, predominately telephone-based intervention provided significant, although apparently context-sensitive, improvements to exclusive breastfeeding duration.