System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.

Effects of mate availability on female longevity, fecundity and egg development of Homichloda barkeri (Jacoby) (Coleoptera : Chrysomelidae)

This study examined the effect of the number of maternal matings on egg production, embryonic development and female longevity in Homichloda barkeri (Jacoby) (Cole optera: Chrysomelidae). Single-mated females lived longer than multiple-mated and unmated females. The number of eggs produced per day and the proportion of eggs that developed between single- and multiple-mated females was not affected by mating frequency.

Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.

Variation in cervical cancer screening by region, socio-economic, migrant and Indigenous status in women in New South Wales

The purpose of this study was to estimate the extent of association of cervical screening in NSW women with socio-economic status (SES), rurality, and proportions of non-English speaking background (NESB) and Indigenous status. Data on women who had at least one Pap test over two years (January 1998-December 1999) were obtained from the NSW Pap test Register. Each local government area (LGA) was allocated to categories of population proportions of NESB and Indigenous status, a rurality classification based on population density and remoteness, and to an SES quintile. The odds ratios (OR) of having a Pap test were estimated and confounding adjusted by multiple logistic regression analysis. Implied Pap test rates in urban NESB and in rural Indigenous women were estimated from the modelled estimates. The adjusted OR for a Pap test in large rural centres (1.14) was significantly higher than those for metropolitan or capital city residents (0.9 and 1.0 respectively). Adjusted OR for a Pap test in other rural centres (0.73) and other remote areas (0.64) were significantly lower than those for metropolitan or capital city residents. In urban populations the lowest OR were in areas with both low SES and high proportion of NESB. The lowest OR for Pap screening in rural populations occurred in the most remote areas with the highest proportion of Indigenous women. For urban NESB women the biennial Pap test rate was estimated as 50%, and for rural Indigenous women 29%, compared with the NSW average of 59%.

Determination of T1pH relaxation rates in charred and uncharred wood and consequences for NMR quantitation

The performance of three different techniques for determining proton rotating frame relaxation rates (T1pH) in charred and uncharred woods is compared. The variable contact time (VCT) experiment is shown to over-estimate T1pH, particularly for the charred samples, due to the presence of slowly cross-polarizing C-13 nuclei. The variable spin (VSL) or delayed contact experiment is shown to overcome these problems; however, care is needed in the analysis to ensure rapidly relaxing components are not overlooked. T1pH is shown to be non-uniform for both charred and uncharred wood samples; a rapidly relaxing component (T1pH = 0.46-1.07 ms) and a slowly relaxing component (T1pH = 3.58-7.49) is detected in each sample. T1pH for each component generally decreases with heating temperature (degree of charring) and the proportion of rapidly relaxing component increases. Direct T1pH determination (via H-1 detection) shows that all samples contain an even faster relaxing component (0.09-0.24 ms) that is virtually undetectable by the indirect (VCT and VSL) techniques. A new method for correcting for T1pH signal losses in spin counting experiments is developed to deal with the rapidly relaxing component detected in the VSL experiment. Implementation of this correction increased the proportion of potential C-13 CPMAS NMR signal that can be accounted for by up to 50% for the charred samples. An even greater proportion of potential signal can be accounted for if the very rapidly relaxing component detected in the direct T1pH determination is included; however, it must be kept in mind that this experiment also detects H-1 pools which may not be involved in H-1-C-13 cross-polarization. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Expectancy-based associative and identity priming in pronunciation

Evidence for expectancy-based priming in the pronunciation task was provided in three experiments. In Experiments 1 and 2, a high proportion of associatively related trials produced greater associative priming and superior retrieval of primes in a subsequent test of memory for primes, whereas high- and low-proportion groups showed comparable repetition benefits in perceptual identification of previously presented primes. In Experiment 2, the low-proportion condition had few associatively related pairs hut many identity pairs. In Experiment 3, identity priming was greater in a high- than a low-identity proportion group, with similar repetition benefits and prime retrieval responses for the two groups. These results indicate that when the prime-target relationship is salient, subjects strategically vary their processing of the prime according to the nature of the prime-target relationship.

Effect of radiation environment on radiation use efficiency and growth of sunflower

The level of incident radiation and the proportion of radiation that is diffuse affects radiation use efficiency (RUE) in crops, However, the degree of this effect, and its importance to growth and yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) have not been established. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of radiation environment on RUE, growth, and yield of sunflower. A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and was exposed to three distinct radiation environments. In two treatments, the level of incident radiation was reduced by 14 and 20% by suspending tao different types of polyethylene plastic films well above the crop. In addition to the reductions in incident radiation, the proportion of radiation that was diffuse was increased by about 14% in these treatments. Lower incident radiation and increased proportion of diffuse radiation had no effect on total biomass, phenology, leaf area, and the canopy light extinction coefficient (k = 0.89). However, yield was reduced in shaded treatments due to smaller grain size and lower harvest index. Although crop RUE measured over the entire crop cycle (1.25 g/MJ) did not differ significantly among treatments, there was a trend where RUE compensated for less intercepted incident radiation. Theoretical derivations of the response of RUE to different levels of incident radiation supported this finding. Shaded sunflower crops have the ability to produce biomass similar to unshaded crops by increasing RUE, but have lower harvest indices.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

The effect of mode of exposure to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and host mortality of Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata

The effects of the mode of exposure of second instar Colorado potato beetles to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and resulting mortality were investigated in laboratory studies. Larvae sprayed directly with a B, bassiana condial suspension, larvae exposed to B, bassiana-treated foliage, and larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage experienced 76, 34, and 77% mortality, respectively. The total number of conidia and the proportion of germinating conidia were measured over time for four sections of the insect body: the ventral surface of the head (consisting mostly of ventral mouth parts), the ventral abdominal surface, the dorsal abdominal surface, and the legs. From observations at 24 and 36 h posttreatment, mean totals of 161.1 conidia per insect were found on sprayed larvae, 256.1 conidia on larvae exposed only to treated foliage, and 408.3 conidia on larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage, On sprayed larvae, the majority of conidia were found on the dorsal abdominal surface, whereas conidia were predominantly found in the ventral abdominal surface and mouth parts on larvae exposed to treated foliage, Between 24 and 36 h postinoculation the percentage of conidia germinating on sprayed larvae increased slightly from 80 to 84%), On the treated foliage, the percentage of germinated conidia on larvae increased from 35% at 24 h to 50% at 36 h posttreatment, Conidia germination on sprayed larvae on treated foliage was 65% at 24 h and 75% at 36 h posttreatment, It is likely that the gradual acquisition of conidia derived from the continuous exposure to B. bassiana inoculum on the foliar surface was responsible for the increase in germination over time on larvae exposed to treated foliage, The density and germination of conidia were observed 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 h after being sprayed with or dipped in conidia suspensions or exposing insects to contaminated foliage, Conidia germinated twice as fast on sprayed insects as with any other treatment within the first 12 h, This faster germination may be due to the pressure of the sprayer enhancing conidial lodging on cuticular surfaces. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

The design of hazard risk assessment matrices for ranking occupational health risks and their application in mining and minerals processing

Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

Religious beliefs and practice, and alcohol use in Thai men

Buddhism, the Thai state religion, teaches that use of intoxicants should be avoided. Nonetheless, many Thai people drink alcohol, and a proportion are alcohol-dependent or hazardous or harmful drinkers. This study examines the relationship between Buddhist upbringing and beliefs and alcohol use disorders in Thai men. Three groups, comprising 144 non/infrequent/light drinkers, 77 hazardous/harmful drinkers and 91 alcohol dependents were inter-viewed regarding their early religious life and current religious practices and beliefs. No protective association was shown between early religious life and later alcohol use disorders, indeed, having lived as a buy in a temple for a period was commoner in those with adult alcohol problems. Few subjects reported frequent involvement in current religious activities (9, 8 and 6% in the non/infrequent/light drinkers, hazardous/harmful drinkers, and alcohol dependents respectively). Hazardous/harmful drinkers [odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, 95% confidence interval (0) = 0.2-0.9] and alcohol dependents (OR = 0.5, 95% Cl = 0.2-0.9) were less likely to report being moderately to strongly religious, than were non/infrequent/light drinkers, Understanding the association between religious beliefs and drinking behaviour can potentially assist in the development of prevention and treatment programmes.

Interindividual variation of isolated muscle performance and fibre-type composition in the toad Bufo viridus

Interindividual analyses of physiological performance represent one of the most powerful tools for identifying functional positive and negative linkages between various performance traits. In this study we investigated functional linkages in the whole-gastrocnemius performance of juvenile Bufo viridis by examining interindividual variation in in vitro muscle performance and muscle fibre-type composition. We used the work-loop technique to investigate the maximum in vitro power output and fatigue resistance of the gastrocnemius muscle during repeated sets of three cycles at the cycle frequency of 5 Hz, simulating an intermittent style of locomotion. We found several significant correlations between different measures of in vitro muscle performance, including a negative correlation between maximum net power output and fatigue resistance of power, indicating functional trade-offs between these performance traits. We also investigated the extent of individual variation in the proportions of different fibre types, and tested for correlations between individual variation in muscle fibre-type composition and the previously measured isolated muscle performance. Fast glycolytic fibres represented 84.0+/-3.4% of the muscle, while the combined slow oxidative and fast oxidative-glycolytic fibres represented 16+/-3.4%. We found no significant correlations between measures of in vitro muscle performance and the proportion of different fibre types in the gastrocnemius muscle. However, despite this lack of correlation between whole-muscle performance and muscle fibre-type composition data, we suggest the functional linkages detected between different measures of in vitro muscular performance have important ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Trade liberalisation and technical efficiency: Evidence from Bangladesh manufacturing industries

The paper investigates the effects of trade liberalisation on the technical efficiency of the Bangladesh manufacturing sector by estimating a combined stochastic frontier-inefficiency model using panel data for the period 197894 for 25 three-digit level industries. The results show that the overall technical efficiency of the manufacturing sector as well as the technical efficiencies of the majority of the individual industries has increased over time. The findings also clearly suggest that trade liberalisation, proxied by export orientation and capital deepening, has had significant impact on the reduction of the overall technical inefficiency. Similarly, the scale of operation and the proportion of non-production labour in total employment appear as important determinants of technical inefficiency. The evidence also indicates that both export-promoting and import-substituting industries have experienced rises in technical efficiencies over time. Besides, the results are suggestive of neutral technical change, although (at the 5 per cent level of significance) the empirical results indicate that there was no technical change in the manufacturing industries. Finally, the joint test based on the likelihood ratio (LR) test rejects the Cobb-Douglas production technology as description of the database given the specification of the translog production technology.