Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Documenting the heroin shortage in New South Wales

Australian heroin markets have recently undergone dramatic change, sparking debate about the nature of such markets. This study aimed to determine the onset, peak and decline of the heroin shortage in New South Wales (NSW), using the most appropriate available methods to detect market level changes. The parameters of the heroin shortage were determined by reviewing: reports of heroin users about availability and price (derived from the existing literature and the Illicit Drug Reporting System); qualitative interviews with injecting drug users, and health and law enforcement professionals working in the illicit drug field; and examining data on heroin seizures over the past decade. There was a marked reduction in heroin supply in NSW in early 2001. An increase in the price of heroin occurred in 2001, whereas it had decreased steadily since 1996. A reduction in purity also occurred, as reported by drug users and heroin seizures. The peak period of the shortage appears to have been January to April 2001. The market appears to have stabilised since that time, although it has not returned to pre- 2001 levels: heroin prices have decreased in NSW for street grams, but not to former levels, and the price of `caps' (street deals) remain elevated. Heroin purity in NSW has remained low, with perhaps a 10% increase above the lowest recorded levels. These data support the notion that the heroin market in NSW underwent significant changes, which appear to have involved a lasting shift in the nature of the market.

When oceans meet: a teleost shows secondary intergradation at an Indian-Pacific interface

The Indo-West Pacific is characterized by extraordinary marine species diversity. The evolutionary mechanisms responsible for generating this diversity remain puzzling, but are often linked to Pleistocene sea level fluctuations. The impact of these sea level changes on the population genetic architecture of the estuarine fish Lates calcarifer are investigated via a natural experiment in a region of the Indo-West Pacific known to have undergone considerable change during the Pleistocene. L. calcarifer, a coastline-restricted catadromous teleost, provides an excellent model for studying the effects of sea level change as its habitat requirements potentially make it sensitive to the region's physical history. Evidence was found for a large phylogenetic break (4% mtDNA control region; 0.47% ATPase 6 and 8) either side of the Torres Strait, which separates the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, although some mixing of the clades was evident. This suggests clinal secondary introgression of the clades via contemporary gene flow. Further, populations on Australia's east coast appear to have passed through a bottleneck. This was linked to the historical drying of the Great Barrier Reef coastal lagoon, which resulted in a significant loss of habitat and forced retreat into isolated refugia. These results suggest that historical eustatic changes have left a significant imprint on the molecular diversity within marine species as well as among them in the Indo-West Pacific.

The last glacial cycle from the humid tropics of northeastern Australia: comparison of a terrestrial and a marine record

A detailed pollen record from the Ocean Drilling Program Site 820 core, located on the upper part of the continental slope off the coast of northeast Queensland, was constructed to compare with the existing pollen record from Lynch's Crater on the adjacent Atherton Tableland and allow the production of a regional picture of vegetation and environmental change through the last glacial cycle. Some broad similarities in patterns of vegetation change are revealed, despite the differences between sites and their pollen catchments, which can be related largely to global climate and sea-level changes. The original estimated time scale of the Lynch's Crater record is largely confirmed from comparison with the more thoroughly dated ODP record. Conversely, the Lynch's Crater pollen record has assisted in dating problematic parts of the ODP record. In contrast to Lynch's Crater, which reveals a sharp and sustained reduction in drier araucarian forest around 38,000 yrs BP, considered to have been the result of burning by Aboriginal people, the ODP record indicates, most likely, a stepwise reduction, dating from 140,000 yrs BP or beyond. The earliest reduction shows lack of a clear connection between Araucaria decline and increased burning and suggests that people may not have been involved at this stage. However, a further decline in araucarian forest, possibly around 45,000 yrs BP, which has a more substantial environmental impact and is not related to a time of major climate change, is likely, at least partially, the result of human burning. The suggestion, from the ODP core oxygen isotope record, of a regional sea-surface temperature increase of around 4 degrees C between about 400,000 and 250,000 yrs BP, may have had some influence on the overall decline in Araucaria and its replacement by sclerophyll vegetation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Guadalupian algae-sponge reefs in siliciclastic environments - the reefs at Lengwu (South China) compared with the reef at Iwaizaki (Japan)

Guadalupian reefs occur locally in Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Western Zhejiang, South China. Two types of Guadalupian reefs can be recognized, one is developed in carbonate platforms, e.g. those in the juncture areas of Guangxi, Yunnan and Guizhou; the other occurs in a littoral clastic shelf. The Lengwu reef in Western Zhejiang is a representative of the latter type, which is a major topic of this paper. Lengwu algae-sponge reef, more than one hundred meters in thickness, are composed mainly of sponges, hydrozoans, algae, bryozoans, microbes and lime mud. Reef limestones sit on the mudstone interbedded with fine sandstone of the proximal prodelta facies and are overlain by coarse clasts of the delta front sediments. Lengwu reef displays a lens-shaped relief, dipping and thinning from the reef core, which is remarkably different from the surrounding sediments, showing a protruding relief. Sponges and microbe/algae form bafflestone, bindstone and framestone of the reef core facies. Fore-reef facies is characterized by lithoclastic rudstone and bioclastic packstone. Reef limestone sequence is composed of three cycles and controlled by sea level changes and sediment influx. Such reef is unique among the Guadalupian reefs in South China, but seems similar in some aspects to lwaizaki reef limestones of south Kitakami in Japan. Algae and microbes growing around sponges to form rigid structure in Lengwu reef are a typical feature, which is distinctly different to Guadalupian reefs in a stable platform facies of Guizhou, Yunnan and Guangxi, South China.

Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

Oceanic interchange and nonequilibrium population structure in the estuarine dependent Indo-Pacific tasselfish, Polynemus sheridani

We assayed mtDNA haplotype [300 base pairs (bp) control region] geography and genealogy in the Indo-Pacific tasselfish, Polynemus sheridani from its contiguous estuarine distribution across northern Australia (n = 169). Eight estuaries were sampled from three oceanographic regions (Timor Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea) to assess the impact of Pleistocene sea level changes on the historical connectivity among P. sheridani populations. Specifically, we investigated the genetic consequences of disruption to Indian-Pacific Ocean connectivity brought about by the closure of the Torres Strait. Overall there was significant population subdivision among estuaries (F-ST = 0.161, (Phi(ST) = 0.187). Despite a linear distribution, P. sheridani did not show isolation by distance over the entire sampled range because of genetic similarity of estuaries greater than 3000 km apart. However, significant isolation by distance was detected between estuaries separated by less than 3000 km of coastline. Unlike many genetic studies of Indo-Pacific marine species, there was no evidence for an historical division between eastern and western populations. Instead, phylogeographical patterns were dominated by a starlike intraspecific phylogeny coupled with evidence for population expansion in both the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea but not the Timor Sea. This was interpreted as evidence for recent west to east recolonization across of northern Australia following the last postglacial marine advance. We argue that although sufficient time has elapsed postcolonization for populations to approach gene flow-drift equilibrium over smaller spatial scales (< 3000 km), the signal of historical colonization persists to obscure the expected equilibrium pattern of isolation by distance over large spatial scales (> 3000 km).

Late Quaternary uplift and subsidence of the west coast of Tanna, south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific: U-Th ages of raised coral reefs in the Median Sedimentary Basin

Twelve Late Quaternary TIMS U-Th ages are reported here from 10 coral samples collected in situ from five transgressive coral/algal raised reefs (height: max. 113 m, min. 8 m) and two raised lagoonal deposits (height: max. 18 m, min. 8 m) along and near the west coast of Tanna, which lies in the Median Sedimentary Basin of South Vanuatu, southwest Pacific. These reefs and raised lagoonal deposits represent several age groups: (i) 215 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 7) penultimate interglacial (highest elevation and oldest); (ii) one lagoonal deposit of ca 127 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 5e); (iii) three last interglacial reefs with ages 102, 89 and 81 ka (representing marine oxygen-isotope stages 5c, 5b and 5a, respectively, of the latter part of the last interglacial); (iv) a lagoonal deposit with a 92 ka age (5b); and (v) a Holocene reef (age >5.7-5.0 ka) (lowest elevation and youngest). A ca 4.9 ka regressive reef (at elevation of 1.5 m above sea-level) is consistent with an island-wide 6.5 m uplift (probably largely coseismic), and a probable further island-wide uplift occurred in the late Holocene. The U-series ages taken together with the heights of transgressive reefs show that uplift since 215 ka was, on average, at similar to0.52 mm/y; although since 5 ka the uplift rate was, on average, similar to1.6 mm/y (the assumption being that a 1.5 m above sea-level reef has a coseismic origin). Elevation of transgressive reefs 5a, 5b and 5c and their ages indicates an island-wide subsidence during the period ?124-89 ka (i.e. Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence was jerky). Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence on the northwest coast of Tanna is considered to be due to irregular thicknesses of crust being subducted beneath Tanna.

Using the effect size to model change in preference values from descriptive health status

Objectives: This pilot study describes a modelling approach to translate group-level changes in health status into changes in preference values, by using the effect size (ES) to summarize group-level improvement. Methods: ESs are the standardized mean difference between treatment groups in standard deviation (SD) units. Vignettes depicting varying severity in SD decrements on the SF-12 mental health summary scale, with corresponding symptom severity profiles, were valued by a convenience sample of general practitioners (n = 42) using the rating scale (RS) and time trade-off methods. Translation factors between ES differences and change in preference value were developed for five mental disorders, such that ES from published meta-analyses could be transformed into predicted changes in preference values. Results: An ES difference in health status was associated with an average 0.171-0.204 difference in preference value using the RS, and 0.104-0.158 using the time trade off. Conclusions: This observed relationship may be particular to the specific versions of the measures employed in the present study. With further development using different raters and preference measures, this approach may expand the evidence base available for modelling preference change for economic analyses from existing data.

Efficient factorial experiments when the data are spatially correlated

Factorial experiments with spatially arranged units occur in many situations, particularly in agricultural field trials. The design of such experiments when observations are spatially correlated is investigated in this paper. We show that having a large number of within-factor level changes in rows and columns is important for efficient and robust designs, and demonstrate how designs with these properties can be constructed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can we get General Practitioners to Promote Physical Activity? Results of the 10,000 Steps Rockhampton Community-Based Physical Activity Promotion Project

Evidence supporting the efficacy of physical activity promotion in primary care settings has evaluated patient-level changes in physical activity, with little focus on the issue of general practitioner (GP) uptake. The 'GP Strategy' of 10,000 Steps Rockhampton provided an opportunity to explore this issue in the context of a multi-strategy, community-based physical activity intervention project. The 'GP Strategy' was developed in partnership with the Capricornia Division of General Practice. It aimed to: 1) increase GP awareness of the 10,000 Steps project, 2) upskill GPs in brief physical activity counselling techniques, and 3) provide GPs with evidencebased physical activity counselling materials and pedometers. The evaluation, which was guided by the RE-AIM evaluation framework, used a pre-post design, including a GP mailed survey, and collection of process data. Survey response rates were 67% (n=44/66; baseline) and 70% (n=37/53; 14-month follow-up). GP awareness of 10,000 Steps Rockhampton increased from 46% to 97%. 21/23 practices were visited by 10,000 Steps staff and accepted 10,000 Steps posters, brochures, and pedometers. At follow-up, 78% had displayed the poster, 81% were using the brochures, and 70% had loaned pedometers to patients. Despite the very high rate of uptake and use of 10,000 Steps materials, there was no change in the percentage of patients counselled, and relatively few pedometers had been loaned to patients. The results of this trial indicate that it will take more effort to change GP physical activity counselling behaviour, and provide only modest support for use of pedometers in the busy general practice setting. Acknowledgement:This project is supported by a grant from Health Promotion Queensland.

Changes in social identity when joining a new group: The role of individual-level and group-level adaptation processes

While classic intergroup theories have specified the processes explaining situational shifts in social identification, the processes whereby social identities change more profoundly and become integrated within the self have to be proposed. To this aim, the present studies investigate the processes by which group members integrate a new social identity as they are joining a new group. Combining a social identity approach and stress and coping models, this research tests if social factors (i.e., needs satisfied by fellow group members, social support), have an impact on the adaptation strategies group members use to deal with the novelty of the situation and to fit into their new group (seeking information & adopting group norms vs. disengaging). These strategies, in turn, should predict changes in level of identification with the new social group over time, as well as enhanced psychological adjustment. These associations are tested among university students over the course of their first academic year (Study 1), and among online gamers joining a newly established online community (Study 2). Path analyses provide support for the hypothesised associations. The results are discussed in light of recent theoretical developments pertaining to intraindividual changes in social identities and their integration in the self.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.