Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A review of the use of the basic cation saturation ratio and the "ideal" soil

The use of 'balanced' Ca, Mg, and K ratios, as prescribed by the basic cation saturation ratio (BCSR) concept, is still used by some private soil-testing laboratories for the interpretation of soil analytical data. This review aims to examine the suitability of the BCSR concept as a method for the interpretation of soil analytical data. According to the BCSR concept, maximum plant growth will be achieved only when the soil’s exchangeable Ca, Mg, and K concentrations are approximately 65 % Ca, 10 % Mg, and 5 % K (termed the ‘ideal soil’). This ‘ideal soil’ was originally proposed by Firman Bear and co-workers in New Jersey (USA) during the 1940s as a method of reducing luxury K uptake by alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.). At about the same time, William Albrecht, working in Missouri (USA), concluded through his own investigations that plants require a soil with a high Ca saturation for optimal growth. Whilst it now appears that several of Albrecht’s experiments were fundamentally flawed, the BCSR (‘balanced soil’) concept has been widely promoted, suggesting that the prescribed cationic ratios provide optimum chemical, physical, and biological soil properties. Our examination of data from numerous studies (particularly those of Albrecht and Bear, themselves) would suggest that, within the ranges commonly found in soils, the chemical, physical, and biological fertility of a soil is generally not influenced by the ratios of Ca, Mg, and K. The data do not support the claims of the BCSR, and continued promotion of the BCSR will result in the inefficient use of resources in agriculture and horticulture.

What are the economic prospects of developing aquaculture in Queensland to supply the low price white fillet market? Lessons from the US channel catfish industry

The farming of channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) is the largest (by volume and value) and most successful (in terms of market impact) aquaculture industry in the United States of America. Farmed channel catfish is the most consumed (in terms of volume per capita) fish fillet in the U.S. market. Within Australia, it has long been suggested by researchers and industry that silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus) and possibly other endemic teraponid species possess similar biological attributes for aquaculture as channel catfish and may have the potential to generate a similar industry. The current teraponid industry in Australia, however, shows very little resemblance to the catfish industry, either in production style or market philosophy. A well established budget framework from the literature on U.S. channel catfish farming has been adapted for cost and climate conditions of the Burdekin region, Queensland, Australia. Breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were found to be up to 50% higher than those published for catfish farms however were much lower than those reported for silver perch production in Australia using current, endemic styles of production. The breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were most sensitive (in order of significance) to feed prices, production rates, interest rates, fingerling prices and electricity prices. At equivalent feed costs the costs of production between the hypothetical catfish farms in the Mississippi, U.S. and the hypothetical teraponid farms in the Burdekin, Australia were remarkably similar. The cost of feeds suitable for teraponid production in Australia are currently around double that of catfish feeds in the U.S. Issues currently hindering the development of a large scale teraponid industry in Australia are discussed.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

Characterization of turbulent jets from high-aspect-ratio rectangular nozzles

Turbulent free jets issuing from rectangular slots with various high aspect ratios (15-120) are characterized. The centerline mean and rms velocities are measured using hot-wire anemometry over a downstream distance of up to 160 slot heights at a slot-height-based Reynolds number of 10000. Experimental results suggest that a rectangular jet with sufficiently high aspect ratio (> 15) may be distinguished between three flow zones: an initial quasi-plane-jet zone, a transition zone, and a final quasi-axisymmetric-jet zone. In the quasi-plane-jet zone, the turbulent velocity field is statistically similar, but not identical, to those of a plane jet. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

The treatment of tardive dyskinesia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review aimed to collate randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of various interventions used to treat tardive dyskinesia (TD) and, where appropriate, to combine the data for mete-analysis, Clinical trials were identified by electronic searches, handsearches and contact with principal investigators. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, for outcomes related to improvement, deterioration, side-effects and drop out rates. Data were pooled using the Mantel-Haenzel Odds Ratio (fixed effect model). For treatments that had significant effects, the number needed to treat (NNT) was calculated. From 296 controlled clinical trials, data were extracted from 47 trials. For most interventions, we could identify no RCT-derived evidence of efficacy. A meta-analysis showed that baclofen, deanol and diazepam were no more effective than a placebo. Single RCTs demonstrated a lack of evidence of any effect for bromocriptine, ceruletide, clonidine, estrogen, gamma linolenic acid, hydergine, lecithin, lithium, progabide, seligiline and tetrahydroisoxazolopyridinol. The meta-analysis found that five interventions were effective: L-dopa, oxypertine, sodium valproate, tiapride and vitamin E; neuroleptic reduction was marginally significant. Data from single RCTs revealed that insulin, alpha methyl dopa and reserpine were more effective than a placebo. There was a significantly increased risk of adverse events associated with baclofen, deanol, L-dopa, oxypertine and reserpine. Metaanalysis of the impact of placebo (n=485) showed that 37.3% of participants showed an improvement. Interpretation of this systematic review requires caution as the individual trials identified tended to have small sample sizes. For many compounds, data from only one trial were available, and where meta-analyses were possible, these were based on a small number of trials. Despite these concerns, the review facilitated the interpretation of the large and diverse range of treatments used for TD. Clinical recommendations for the treatment of TD are made, based on the availability of RCT-derived evidence, the strength of that evidence and the presence of adverse effects. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Capillary network models for transport in packed beds: Considerations of pore aspect ratio

The conventional analysis for the estimation of the tortuosity factor for transport in porous media is modified here to account for the effect of pore aspect ratio. Structural models of the porous medium are also constructed for calculating the aspect ratio as a function of porosity. Comparison of the model predictions with the extensive data of Currie (1960) for the effective diffusivity of hydrogen in packed beds shows good agreement with a network model of randomly oriented intersecting pores for porosities upto about 50 percent, which is the region of practical interest. The predictions based on this network model are also found to be in better agreement with the data of Currie than earlier expressions developed for unconsolidated and grainy media.

Lemon oil to beta-cyclodextrin ratio effect on the inclusion efficiency of beta-cyclodextrin and the retention of oil volatiles in the complex

Microencapsulation of lemon oil was undertaken with beta-cyclodextrin using a precipitation method at the five lemon oil to beta-cyclodextrin ratios of 3:97, 6:94, 9:91, 12:88, and 15:85 (w/w) in order to determine the effect of the ratio of lemon oil to beta-cyclodextrin on the inclusion efficiency of beta-cyclodextrin for encapsulating oil volatiles. The retention of lemon oil volatiles reached a maximum at the lemon oil to beta-cyclodextrin ratio of 6:94; however, the maximum inclusion capacity of beta-cyclodextrin and a maximum powder recovery were achieved at the ratio of 12:88, in which the beta-cyclodextrin complex contained 9.68% (w/w) lemon oil. The profile and proportion of selected flavor compounds in the beta-cyclodextrin complex and the starting lemon oil were not significantly different.

Optics of the developing fish eye: comparisons of Matthiessen's ratio and the focal length of the lens in the black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Sparidae, Teleostei)

Matthiessen's ratio (distance from centre of lens to retina: lens radius) was measured in developing black bream, Acanthopagrus butcheri (Sparidae, Teleostei). The value decreased over the first 10 days post-hatch from 3.6 to 2.3 along the nasal and from four to 2.6 along temporal axis. Coincidentally, there was a decrease in the focal ratio of the lens (focal length:lens radius). Morphologically, the accommodatory retractor lentis muscle appeared to become functional between 10-12 days post-hatch. The results suggest that a higher focal ratio compensates for the relatively high Matthiessen's ratio brought about by constraints of small eye size during early development. Combined with differences in axial length, this provides a means for larval fish to focus images from different distances prior to the ability to accommodate. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.