Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Coordinations in business interactions between Hong Kong Chinese, Mainland Chinese and western actors

Hong Kong firms continue to play an important role in the development of mainland China trade. This paper studies the nature of coordinations in triadic interactions between Hong Kong Chinese intermediaries and mainland Chinese sellers, and buyers from the West, and their impact on relationships development. Contrary to popular belief, the results presented here identify that interactions between Hong Kong intermediaries and mainland Chinese sellers tend to include relationships based on price and authority. These interactions tend to be classical in nature, and serve to hinder the development of relationships. On the other hand, interactions between buyers from the West and Hong Kong intermediaries tend to be relational in nature. They include different forms of personal relationships, which tends to be positive for the development of relationships. A new plural form of international business relationship triad is also identified.

Diffusion modeling of percutaneous absorption kinetics: 3. Variable diffusion and partition coefficients, consequences for stratum corneum depth profiles and desorption kinetics

Stratum corneum (SC) desorption experiments have yielded higher calculated steady-state fluxes than those obtained by epidermal penetration studies. A possible explanation of this result is a variable diffusion or partition coefficient across the SC. We therefore developed the diffusion model for percutaneous penetration and desorption to study the effects of either a variable diffusion coefficient or variable partition coefficient in the SC over the diffusion path length. Steady-state flux, lag time, and mean desorption time were obtained from Laplace domain solutions. Numerical inversion of the Laplace domain solutions was used for simulations of solute concentration-distance and amount penetrated (desorbed)-time profiles. Diffusion and partition coefficients heterogeneity were examined using six different models. The effect of heterogeneity on predicted flux from desorption studies was compared with that obtained in permeation studies. Partition coefficient heterogeneity had a more profound effect on predicted fluxes than diffusion coefficient heterogeneity. Concentration-distance profiles show even larger dependence on heterogeneity, which is consistent with experimental tape-stripping data reported for clobetasol propionate and other solutes. The clobetasol propionate tape-stripping data were most consistent with the partition coefficient decreasing exponentially for half the SC and then becoming a constant for the remaining SC. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Effects of reduction in heroin supply on injecting drug use: analysis of data from needle and syringe programmes

n early 2001 there was a dramatic decline in the availability of heroin in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, where previously heroin had been readily available at a low price and high purity.1 The decline was confirmed by Australia's strategic early warning system, which revealed a reduction in heroin supply across Australia and a considerable increase in price,2 particularly from January to April 2001. This "heroin shortage" provided a natural experiment in which to examine the effect of substantial changes in price and availability on injecting drug use and its associated harms in Australia's largest heroin market,2 a setting in which harm reduction strategies were widely used. Publicly funded needle and syringe programmes were introduced to Australia in 1987, and methadone maintenance programmes, which were established in the 1970s, were significantly expanded in 1985 and again in 1999.

The seeds of lotus japonicus lines transformed with sense, antisense, and sense/antisense galactomannan galactosyltransferase constructs have structually altered galactomannan in their endosperm cell walls

Galactomannan biosynthesis in legume seed endosperms involves two Golgi membrane-bound glycosyltransferases, mannan synthase and galactomannan galactosyltransferase (GMGT). GMGT specificity is an important factor regulating the distribution and amount of (1-->6)-alpha-galactose (Gal) substitution of the (1-->4)-beta-linked mannan backbone. The model legume Lotus japonicus is shown now to have endospermic seeds with endosperm cell walls that contain a high-Gal galactomannan (mannose [Man]/Gal = 1.2-1.3). Galactomannan biosynthesis in developing L. japonicus endosperms has been mapped, and a cDNA encoding a functional GMGT has been obtained from L. japonicus endosperms during galactomannan deposition. L. japonicus has been transformed with sense, antisense, and sense/antisense ("hairpin loop") constructs of the GMGT cDNA. Some of the sense, antisense, and sense/antisense transgenic lines exhibited galactomannans with altered (higher) Man/Gal values in their (T-1 generation) seeds, at frequencies that were consistent with posttranscriptional silencing of GMGT. For T-1 generation individuals, transgene inheritance was correlated with galactomannan composition and amount in the endosperm. All the azygous individuals had unchanged galactomannans, whereas those that had inherited a GMGT transgene exhibited a range of Man/Gal values, up to about 6 in some lines. For Man/Gal values up to 4, the results were consistent with lowered Gal substitution of a constant amount of mannan backbone. Further lowering of Gal substitution was accompanied by a slight decrease in the amount of mannan backbone. Microsomal membranes prepared from the developing T-2 generation endosperms of transgenic lines showed reduced GMGT activity relative to mannan synthase. The results demonstrate structural modification of a plant cell wall polysaccharide by designed regulation of a Golgi-bound glycosyltransferase.

The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of articulatory dynamics in dysarthria following brain injury in childhood using electromagnetic articulography and electropalatography

Two physiological assessments, electromagnetic articulography (EMA) and electropalatography (EPG), were used simultaneously to investigate the articulatory dynamics in an 18-year-old male with dysarthria 9 years following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Eight words consisting of /t, s, integral, k/ in word initial and word final positions were produced up to 10 times. A nonneurologically impaired male served as a control subject. Six parameters were analyzed using EMA: velocity, acceleration, deceleration, distance, duration, and motion path of tongue movements. Using EPG, the pattern and amount of tongue-to-palate contact and the duration of the closure/constriction phase of each consonant produced were assessed. Timing disturbances in the TBI speaker's speech were highlighted in perceptual assessments in the form of prolonged phonemes and a reduced speech rate. EMA analysis revealed that the approach and release phase durations of the consonant productions were within normal limits. Kinematic strategies such as decreased velocity and decreased distances traveled by the tongue, however, may have counterbalanced each other to produce these appropriate results. EPG examination revealed significantly longer closure/constriction phase periods, which may have contributed to the prolonged phonemes and reduced speech rate observed. The implications of these findings for the development of treatment programs for dysarthria subsequent to TBI will be highlighted.

The effect of a reduction in heroin supply on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia

Objective: To examine the impact of a sudden and dramatic decrease in heroin availability, concomitant with increases in price and decreases in purity, on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia. Design and setting: Time-series analysis was conducted where possible on data on overdoses collected from NSW hospital emergency departments, the NSW Ambulance Service, and all suspected drug-related deaths referred to the NSW Coroner's court. Main outcome measures: The number of suspected drug-related deaths where heroin and other drugs were mentioned; ambulance calls to suspected opioid overdoses; and emergency department admissions for overdoses on heroin and other drugs. Results: Both fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses decreased significantly after heroin supply reduced; the reductions were greater among younger age groups than older age groups. There were no clear increases in non-fatal overdoses with cocaine, methamphetamines or benzodiazepines recorded at hospital emergency departments after the reduction in heroin supply. Data on drug-related deaths suggested that heroin use was the predominant driver of drug-related deaths in NSW, and that when heroin supply was reduced overdose deaths were more likely to involve a wider combination of drugs. Conclusion: A reduction in heroin supply reduced heroin-related deaths, and did not result in a concomitant increase, to the same degree, in deaths relating to other drugs. Younger people were more affected by the reduction in supply.

Composite auction method for suppressing unreasonable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market

The existence of undesirable electricity price spikes in a competitive electricity market requires an efficient auction mechanism. However, many of the existing auction mechanism have difficulties in suppressing such unreasonable price spikes effectively. A new auction mechanism is proposed to suppress effectively unreasonable price spikes in a competitive electricity market. It optimally combines system marginal price auction and pay as bid auction mechanisms. A threshold value is determined to activate the switching between the marginal price auction and the proposed composite auction. Basically when the system marginal price is higher than the threshold value, the composite auction for high price electricity market is activated. The winning electricity sellers will sell their electricity at the system marginal price or their own bid prices, depending on their rights of being paid at the system marginal price and their offers' impact on suppressing undesirable price spikes. Such economic stimuli discourage sellers from practising economic and physical withholdings. Multiple price caps are proposed to regulate strong market power. We also compare other auction mechanisms to highlight the characteristics of the proposed one. Numerical simulation using the proposed auction mechanism is given to illustrate the procedure of this new auction mechanism.

Output price subsidies in a stochastic world

This article studies the comparative statics of output subsidies for firms, with monotonic preferences over costs and returns, that face price and production uncertainty. The modeling of deficiency payments, support-price schemes, and stochastic supply shifts in a state-space framework is discussed. It is shown how these notions can be used, via a simple application of Shephard's lemma, to analyze input-demand shifts once comparative-static results for supply are available. A range of comparative-static results for supply are then developed and discussed.

Geogenic sources and sinks of trace metals in the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica: Natural processes and human impact

To evaluate the extent of human impact on a pristine Antarctic environment, natural baseline levels of trace metals have been established in the basement rocks of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. From a mineralogical and geochemical point of view the Larsemann Hills basement is relatively homogeneous, and contains high levels of Pb, Th and U. These may become soluble during the relatively mild Antarctic summer and be transported to lake waters by surface and subsurface melt water. Melt waters may also be locally enriched in V, Cr, Co, Ni, Zn and Sri derived from weathering of metabasite pods. With a few notable exceptions, the trace metal concentrations measured in the Larsemann Hills lake waters can be entirely accounted for by natural processes such as sea spray and surface melt water input. Thus, the amount of trace metals released by weathering of basement lithologies and dispersed into the Larsemann Hills environment, and presumably in similar Antarctic environments, is, in general, not negligible, and may locally be substantial. The Larsemann Hills sediments are coarse-grained and contain minute amounts of clay-size particles, although human activities have contributed to the generation of fine-grained material at the most impacted sites. Irrespective of their origin, these small amounts of fine-grained clastic sediments have a relatively small surface area and charge, and are not as effective metal sinks as the abundant, thick cyanobacterial algal mats that cover the lake floors. Thus, the concentration of trace metals in the Larsemann Hills lake waters is regulated by biological activity and thawing-freezing cycles, rather than by the type and amount of clastic sediment supply. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of parameters effective in FRP shear strengthening of RC beams using FE method

Shear strengthening is required when an RC beam is found deficient in shear, or when its shear capacity falls below its flexural capacity after flexural strengthening. A recent technique for the shear strengthening of RC beams is to provide additional FRP web reinforcement, commonly in the form of bonded external FRP strips/sheets. Over the last few years, several experimental studies have been conducted on this new strengthening technique, which has established its effectiveness. While experimental methods of investigation are extremely useful in obtaining information about the composite behaviour of FRP and reinforced concrete, the use of numerical models such as the one presented in this paper helps in developing a good understanding of the behaviour at lower costs. In the study presented in this paper, ANSYS finite element program is used to examine the response of beams strengthened in shear by FRPs. The FE model is calibrated against test results performed at the University of Kentucky. Once validated, the model is used to examine the influence of fibre orientation, compressive strength of concrete, area of tensile and compressive reinforcements, and amount and distance between stirrups on the strength and ductility of FRP strengthened beam.

Collaborative filtering on data streams

Collaborate Filtering is one of the most popular recommendation algorithms. Most Collaborative Filtering algorithms work with a static set of data. This paper introduces a novel approach to providing recommendations using Collaborative Filtering when user rating is received over an incoming data stream. In an incoming stream there are massive amounts of data arriving rapidly making it impossible to save all the records for later analysis. By dynamically building a decision tree for every item as data arrive, the incoming data stream is used effectively although an inevitable trade off between accuracy and amount of memory used is introduced. By adding a simple personalization step using a hierarchy of the items, it is possible to improve the predicted ratings made by each decision tree and generate recommendations in real-time. Empirical studies with the dynamically built decision trees show that the personalization step improves the overall predicted accuracy.

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.