What is the Problem of Ad Hoc Hypotheses?

The received view of an ad hoc hypothesis is that it accounts for only the observation(s) it was designed to account for, and so non-adhocness is generally held to be necessary or important for an introduced hypothesis or modification to a theory. Attempts by Popper and several others to convincingly explicate this view, however, prove to be unsuccessful or of doubtful value, and familiar and firmer criteria for evaluating the hypotheses or modified theories so classified are characteristically available. These points are obscured largely because the received view fails to adequately separate psychology from methodology or to recognise ambiguities in the use of 'ad hoc'.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Hitting a moving target: Perception and action in the timing of rapid interceptions

Different interceptive tasks and modes of interception (hitting or capturing) do not necessarily involve similar control processes. Control based on preprogramming of movement parameters is possible for actions with brief movement times but is now widely rejected; continuous perceptuomotor control models are preferred for all types of interception. The rejection of preprogrammed control and acceptance of continuous control is evaluated for the timing of rapidly executed, manual hitting actions. It is shown that a preprogrammed control model is capable of providing a convincing account of observed behavior patterns that avoids many of the arguments that have been raised against it. Prominent continuous perceptual control models are analyzed within a common framework and are shown to be interpretable as feedback control strategies. Although these models can explain observations of on-line adjustments to movement, they offer only post hoc explanations for observed behavior patterns in hitting tasks and are not directly supported by data. It is proposed that rapid manual hitting tasks make up a class of interceptions for which a preprogrammed strategy is adopted-a strategy that minimizes the role of visual feedback. Such a strategy is effective when the task demands a high degree of temporal accuracy.

No evidence of female choice for a condition-dependent trait in the agamid lizard, Ctenophorus ornatus

Female choice has rarely been documented in reptiles. In this study we examined the variation, condition-dependence and female preference for a range of male morphological and colour traits in the agamid lizard, Ctenophorus ornatus. Colour traits were measured with reflectance spectrophotometry which allows the accurate quantification of colour traits independent of the human visual system. All the colour traits varied greatly in brightness but only the throat showed high variation in the spectral shape. For the morphological traits, chest patch size showed the highest amount of variation and was also condition-dependent. Males with a larger chest patch also had a patch which was a darker black. Female mate choice trials were conducted on male chest patch size and body size, which is the trait females have preferred in other lizard species. Females showed no preference, measured as spatial association, for larger males or males with bigger chest patches. In post-hoc tests females did not prefer males with brighter throats or darker chests, Our findings suggest that females show no spatial discrimination between males on the basis of a range of traits most expected to influence female choice.

Evaluation of short dietary questions from the 1995 National Nutrition Survey

Six of the short dietary questions used in the 1995 National Nutrition Survey (see box below) were evaluated for relative validity both directly and indirectly and for consistency, by documenting the differences in mean intakes of foods and nutrients as measured on the 24-hour recall, between groups with different responses to the short questions. 1. Including snacks, how many times do you usually have something to eat in a day including evenings? 2. How many days per week do you usually have something to eat for breakfast? 3. In the last 12 months, were there any times that you ran out of food and couldn’t afford to buy more? 4. What type of milk do you usually consume? 5. How many serves of vegetables do you usually eat each day? (a serve = 1/2 cup cooked vegetables or 1 cup of salad vegetables) 6. How many serves of fruit do you usually eat each day? (a serve = 1 medium piece or 2 small pieces of fruit or 1 cup of diced pieces) These comparisons were made for males and females overall and for population sub-groups of interest including: age, socio-economic disadvantage, region of residence, country of birth, and BMI category. Several limitations to this evaluation of the short questions, as discussed in the report, need to be kept in mind including: · The method for comparison available (24-hour recall) was not ideal (gold standard); as it measures yesterday’s intake. This limitation was overcome by examining only mean differences between groups of respondents, since mean intake for a group can provide a reasonable approximation for ‘usual’ intake. · The need to define and identify, post-hoc, from the 24-hour recall the number of eating occasions, and occasions identified by the respondents as breakfast. · Predetermined response categories for some of the questions effectively limited the number of categories available for evaluation. · Other foods and nutrients, not selected for this evaluation, may have an indirect relationship with the question, and might have shown stronger and more consistent responses. · The number of responses in some categories of the short questions eg for food security may have been too small to detect significant differences between population sub-groups. · No information was available to examine the validity of these questions for detecting differences over time (establishing trends) in food habits and indicators of selected nutrient intakes. By contrast, the strength of this evaluation was its very large sample size, (atypical of most validation studies of dietary assessment) and thus, the opportunity to investigate question performance in a range of broad population sub-groups compared with a well-conducted, quantified survey of intakes. The results of the evaluation are summarised below for each of the questions and specific recommendations for future testing, modifications and use provided for each question. The report concludes with some general recommendations for the further development and evaluation of short dietary questions.

The effect of high-pass filtering on TEOAE in 2-month-old infants

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of high-pass filtering on TEOAE obtained from 2-month-old infants as a function of filter cut-off frequency, activity states and pass/fail status of infants. Two experiments were performed. In Experiment 1, 100 2-month-old infants (200 ears) in five activity states (asleep, awake but peaceful, sucking a pacifier, feeding, restless) were tested by use of TEOAE technology. Five different filter conditions were applied to the TEOAE responses post hoc. The filter conditions were set at 781 Hz (default setting), 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 and 1.6 kHz. Results from this experiment showed that TEOAE parameters, such as whole-wave reproducibility (WR) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at 0.8 kHz and 1.6 kHz, changed as a function of the cut-off frequency. The findings suggest that the 1.6 kHz and 1.2 kHz filter conditions are optimal for WR and SNR pass/fail criteria, respectively. Although all infant recordings appeared to benefit from the filtering, infants in the noisy states seemed to benefit the most. In Experiment 2, the high-pass filtering technique was applied to 23 infants (35 ears) who apparently failed the TEOAE tests on initial screening but were subsequently awarded a pass status based on the results from a follow-up auditory brainstem response (ABR) assessment. The findings showed a significant decrease in noise contamination of the TEOAE with a corresponding significant increase in WR. With high-pass filtering at 1.6 kHz, 21/35 ears could be reclassified into the pass category.

Effects of suppressed bone turnover by bisphosphonates on microdamage accumulation and biomechanical properties in clinically relevant skeletal sites in beagles

We recently demonstrated that suppression of bone remodeling allows microdamage to accumulate, leading to reduced bone toughness in the rib cortex of dogs. This study evaluates the effects of reduced bone turnover produced by bisphosphonates on microdamage accumulation and biomechanical properties at clinically relevant skeletal sites in the same dogs. Thirty-six female beagles, 1-2 years old, were divided into three groups. The control group was treated daily for 12 months with saline vehicle (CNT), The remaining two groups were treated daily with risedronate at a dose of 0.5 mg/kg per day (RIS), or alendronate at 1.0 mg/kg per day (ALN) orally, The doses of these bisphosphonates were six times the clinical doses approved for treatment of osteoporosis in humans. After killing, the L-1 vertebra was scanned by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and the L-2 vertebra and right ilium were assigned to histomorphometry, The L-3 vertebra, left ilium, Th-2 spinous process, and right femoral neck were used for microdamage analysis. The L-4 vertebra and Th-1 spinous process were mechanically tested to failure in compression and shear, respectively. One year treatment with risedronate or alendronate significantly suppressed trabecular remodeling in vertebrae (RIS 90%, ALN 95%) and ilium (RIS 76%, ALN 90%) without impairment of mineralization, and significantly increased microdamage accumulation in all skeletal sites measured. Trabecular bone volume and vertebral strength increased significantly following 12 month treatment. However, normalized toughness of the L-4 vertebra was reduced by 21% in both RIS (p = 0.06) and ALN (p = 0.05) groups. When the two bisphosphonate groups were pooled in a post hoc fashion for analysis, this reduction in toughness reached statistical significance (p = 0.02), This study demonstrates that suppression of trabecular bone turnover by high doses of bisphosphonates is associated with increased vertebral strength, even though there is significant microdamage accumulation and a reduction in the intrinsic energy absorption capacity of trabecular bone. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

The competence of mental health occupational therapists

This research sought to investigate the self-perceived competence of mental health occupational therapists in Queensland. The research is a post-hoc analysis of survey results that formed part of the 1995 Professional Development Strategy for Adult Mental Health Services for the Queensland Health Mental Health Unit. A sample of 55 occupational therapists was compared with other professionals in relation to both general self-efficacy and efficacy in specific competencies. The devised scale for measuring self-efficacy was found to have a high level of internal reliability. The results indicated that the general self-perceived competence of occupational therapists for the whole sample was comparable to that of other professional groups, but that in the community-based sample it was significantly higher than that of social workers or nurses. In addition, occupational therapists in community settings had significantly higher general self-perceived competence than occupational therapists in hospital locations. Greater length of experience in mental health was strongly predictive of higher levels of competence for occupational therapists than for other professionals. The results suggest that occupational therapists have adapted well to the demands of multidisciplinary community practice. The possible reasons for these results, and the implications for competency-based recruitment and training, are presented.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

A study of five cervicocephalic relocation tests in three different subject groups

Objective: To compare head relocation accuracy in traumatic ( whiplash), insidious onset neck pain patients and asymptomatic subjects when targeting a natural head posture (NHP) and complex predetermined positions. Design: A case-control study. Setting: University-based musculoskeletal research clinic. Participants: Sixty-three volunteers divided into three groups of similar gender and age: Group 1 (n=21) an asymptomatic group; group 2 (n=20) insidious onset neck pain; group 3 (n=22) a history of whiplash injury. Intervention: Five randomly ordered tests designed to detect relocation accuracy of the head. Outcome measures: A 3-Space Fastrak system measured the mean absolute relocation error of three trials of each relocation test. Results: A significant difference was found between groups in one of the tests targeting the NHP (p=0.001). Post-hoc pairwise comparisons revealed a significant difference (pless than or equal to0.05) between the asymptomatic group and each symptomatic group. The difference between the symptomatic groups just failed to reach significance (p=0.07). None of the other four tests revealed significant differences. Conclusion: The test of targeting the NHP indicates that relocation inaccuracy exists in patients with neck pain with a trend to suggest that the deficit may be greater in whiplash patients. Tests employing unfamiliar postures or more complex movement were not successful in differentiating subject groups.

Strength indices of the proximal femur and shaft in prepubertal female gymnasts

Introduction/Purpose: The role of impact loading activity on bone mass is well established; however, there are little data on the effects of exercise on bone geometry and indices of bone strength. The primary purpose of this study was to compare indices of bone strength at the proximal femur (PF) between elite premenarcheal gymnasts (N = 30) and age-matched controls (N = 30). Methods: Structural properties of the proximal femur were derived from the hip analyses program and included measurement of subperiosteal width, endosteal diameter, cross-sectional area, bone mineral density, cross-section moment of inertia (CSMI), and section modulus (Z). These parameters were measured for two regions of the PF: the narrow neck (NN), and the shaft (S). In addition, a strength index (S-SI) was calculated at the shaft by dividing the Z at the shaft by the femur length. A secondary purpose was to compare bone mineral content (BMC) values at the total body, lumbar spine, and three sites at the PF (neck, trochanter, and total) between the groups. All dependent values were compared adjusting for height and weight using an ANCOVA procedure and for relative lean body mass post hoc. Results: The gymnasts had significantly greater size-adjusted strength indices (CSMI, Z, and SI) at the NN and S. Gymnasts also had significantly greater size-adjusted BMC at all sites investigated. However, these differences disappeared when adjusted for relative lean body mass. Conclusion: When adjusted for body size, gymnasts had significantly greater indices of both axial strength and bending strength at the NN region of the PF and S, as well as a greater bone SI at the femoral shaft. These differences may be related to greater relative lean body mass attained in gymnastics training.

Effects of pravastatin on coronary events in 2073 patients with low levels of both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: results from the LIPID study

Aims Fibrates or nicotinic acid are usually recommended for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in patients with low plasma levels of both low-density tipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmol/L) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L). The LIPID trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 9014 patients at 87 centres in Australia and New Zealand, provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor in patients with tow LDL-C and tow HDL-C. Methods and results Participants in this post hoc substudy were 2073 patients aged 31-75 years with baseline LDL-C less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmoL/L), HDL-C less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L), and triglyceride less than or equal to300 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.4 mmol/L). The relative risk reduction with pravastatin treatment was 27% for major coronary events (95% Cl 8-42%), 27% for coronary heart disease mortality (95% CI 0-47%), 21% for all-cause mortality (95% Cl 0-38%), and 51% for stroke (95% CI 24-69%). The number needed to treat to prevent a major coronary event over 6 years was 22. Conclusions Treatment with pravastatin in patients with both low LDL-C and low HDL-C significantly reduced major coronary events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. The level of HDL-C is crucial to the risk of recurrent CHD events and, consequently, the benefit of lowering LDL-C. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

A parent-report measure of children's anxiety: psychometric properties and comparison with child-report in a clinic and normal sample

This study examined the psychometric properties of the parent version of the Spence Children's Anxiety Scale (SCAS-P); 484 parents of anxiety disordered children and 261 parents in a normal control group participated in the study. Results of confirmatory factor analysis provided support for six intercorrelated factors, that corresponded with the child self-report as well as with the classification of anxiety disorders by DSM-IV (namely separation anxiety, generalized anxiety, social phobia, panic/agoraphobia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and fear of physical injuries). A post-hoc model in which generalized anxiety functioned as the higher order factor for the other five factors described the data equally well. The reliability of the subscales was satisfactory to excellent. Evidence was found for both convergent and divergent validity: the measure correlated well with the parent report for internalizing symptoms, and lower with externalizing symptoms. Parent-child agreement ranged from 0.41 to 0.66 in the anxiety-disordered group, and from 0.23 to 0.60 in the control group. The measure differentiated significantly between anxiety-disordered children versus controls, and also between the different anxiety disorders except GAD. The SCAS-P is recommended as a screening instrument for normal children and as a diagnostic instrument in clinical settings. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluvastatin in patients with diabetes after successful percutaneous coronary intervention

Background: The Lescol Intervention Prevention Study (LIPS) was a multinational randomized controlled trial that showed a 47% reduction in the relative risk of cardiac death and a 22% reduction in major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) from the routine use of fluvastatin, compared with controls, in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, defined as angioplasty with or without stents). In this study, MACEs included cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and subsequent PCI and coronary artery bypass graft. Diabetes was the greatest risk factor for MACEs. Objective: This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of fluvastatin when used for secondary prevention of MACEs after PCI in people with diabetes. Methods: A post hoc subgroup analysis of patients with diabetes from the LIPS was used to estimate the effectiveness of fluvastatin in reducing myocardial infarction, revascularization, and cardiac death. A probabilistic Markov model was developed using United Kingdom resource and cost data to estimate the additional costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over 10 years from the perspective of the British National Health Service. The model contained 6 health states, and the transition probabilities were derived from the LIPS data. Crossover from fluvastatin to other lipid-lowering drugs, withdrawal from fluvastatin, and the use of lipid-lowering drugs in the control group were included. Results: In the subgroup of 202 patients with diabetes in the LIPS trial, 18 (15.0%) of 120 fluvastatin patients and 21 (25.6%) of 82 control participants were insulin dependent (P = NS). Compared with the control group, patients treated with fluvastatin can expect to gain an additional mean (SD) of 0.196 (0.139) QALY per patient over 10 years (P < 0.001) and will cost the health service an additional mean (SD) of 10 (E448) (P = NS) (mean [SD] US $16 [$689]). The additional cost per QALY gained was;(51 (US $78). The key determinants of cost-effectiveness included the probabilities of repeat interventions, cardiac death, the cost of fluvastatin, and the time horizon used for the evaluation. Conclusion: Fluvastatin was an economically efficient treatment to prevent MACEs in these patients with diabetes undergoing PCI.