6 resultados para positive binomial distribution
em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia
Resumo:
Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Stochastic models based on Markov birth processes are constructed to describe the process of invasion of a fly larva by entomopathogenic nematodes. Various forms for the birth (invasion) rates are proposed. These models are then fitted to data sets describing the observed numbers of nematodes that have invaded a fly larval after a fixed period of time. Non-linear birthrates are required to achieve good fits to these data, with their precise form leading to different patterns of invasion being identified for three populations of nematodes considered. One of these (Nemasys) showed the greatest propensity for invasion. This form of modelling may be useful more generally for analysing data that show variation which is different from that expected from a binomial distribution.
Resumo:
End-stage liver disease associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now the leading indication for liver transplantation in adults. However, reinfection of the graft is universal. We aimed to determine predictors of outcome of HCV-Iiver transplant recipients in the Australian and New Zealand communities. The following variables were analysed: demographic factors, coexistent pathology at the time of transplantation, HCV genotype, and donor age. Outcomes measures were: 1. mortality; 2. development of HCV-related complications, which were stage 3 or 4 fibrosis, or mortality from HCV-related graft failure, or both. Between January 1989 and December 30, 1999, 182 patients were transplanted for HCV-associated cirrhosis. The median follow-up period was 4 years (range, 0 to 13 years). Genotype data were available on 157 patients. The distribution of genotypes among the 157 patients was as follows: 36 (23%) genotype la, 30 (19%) genotype 1b, 4 (9%) genotype 1, 17 (11%) genotype 2, 41 (26%) genotype 3a, and 16 (10%) genotype 4. Eight (5%) patients were HCV-polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-negative (but HCV-antibody positive). Donor age and genotype 4 were associated with an increased risk of retransplantation or death (P < .001 and.05, respectively). Meanwhile, donor age, genotype 4, and pretransplant excess alcohol were risk factors for the development of HCV-related complications (P = .004, .008, and .02, respectively). In contrast, patients with genotype 3a were less likely to develop HCV-related complications (P = .05). In a population of HCV liver transplant recipients with a heterogeneous genotype distribution, donor age, and genotype 4, were predictors of a worse outcome, whereas genotype 3 was associated with a more favorable outcome.
Resumo:
Background: The fact that Tannerella forsythia, an important periopathogen, is difficult to cultivate from mixed infections has impeded precise estimates of its distribution within a given population. In order to discern T. forsythia alone from the mixed infection of plaque, the use of sensitive 16S ribosomal RNA based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection is necessary. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine the distribution of T. forsythia in an adult and in an adolescent population. Materials and methods: Subgingival plaque samples were obtained from 498 Australian adults and from 228 adolescent subjects from Manchester, UK. Tannerella forsythia was detected using PCR and confirmed by restriction analysis. Semi-quantitation of the organisms was carried out using two specific primers of differing sensitivities. Results: In the adolescent population, 25% were found to carry T. forsythia, albeit in relatively low numbers. In the adult population, a total of 37.8% and 11% were found to carry the organism with primer 2 and primer 1, respectively, suggesting that around 27% had between 10(3) and 10(7) organisms. Although there was an apparent increased proportion of T. forsythia positive subjects in those aged >= 50 years, this was not statistical significant. However, T. forsythia positive male smokers showed increased disease severity compared with T. forsythia negative subjects. Conclusion: This study has shown that at least 25% of the adolescent population carry low numbers of T. forsythia, whereas at least 37% of adults carry the organism, with some 11% having relatively high numbers. The relationship between T. forsythia and disease progression in these populations, however, remains to be determined.
Resumo:
We have investigated the isomeric distribution and rearrangement of complexes of the type [CoXLn](2+,3+) (where X = Cl-, OH-, H2O, and L-n represents a pentadentate 13-, 14-, and 15-membered tetraaza or diaza-dithia (N-4 or N2S2) macrocycle bearing a pendant primary amine). The preparative procedures for chloro complexes produced almost exclusively kinetically preferred cis isomers (where the pendant primary amine is cis to the chloro ligand) that can be separated by careful cation-exchange chromatography. For L-13 and L-14 the so-called cis-V isomer is isolated as the kinetic product, and for L-15 the cis-VI form (an N-based diastereomer) is the preferred, while for the L-14(S) complex both cis-V and trans-I forms are obtained. All these complexes rearrange to form stable trans isomers in which the pendent primary amine is trans to the monodentate aqua or hydroxo ligand, depending on pH and the workup procedure. In total 11 different complexes have been studied. From these, two different trans isomers of [CoCIL14S](2+) have been characterized crystallographically for the first time in addition to a new structure of cis-V-[CoCIL14S](2+); all were isolated as their chloride perchlorate salts. Two additional isomers have been identified and characterized by NMR as reaction intermediates. The remaining seven forms correspond to the complexes already known, produced in preparative procedures. The kinetic, thermal, and baric activation parameters for all the isomerization reactions have been determined and involve large activation enthalpies and positive volumes of activation. Activation entropies indicate a very important degree of hydrogen bonding in the reactivity of the complexes, confirmed by density functional theory studies on the stability of the different isomeric forms. The isomerization processes are not simple and even some unstable intermediates have been detected and characterized as part of the above-mentioned 11 forms of the complexes. A common reaction mechanism for the isomerization reactions has been proposed for all the complexes derived from the observed kinetic and solution behavior.