Policies for saving a rare Australian glider: economics and ecology

This paper considers the economics of conserving a species with mainly non-use value, the endangered mahogany glider. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results supply information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies, and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly, data are provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider and how it changes. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits are estimated to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species and ecosystems. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach, Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.

Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning

The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities bad to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.

Biodiversity conservation planning tools: Present status and challenges for the future

Species extinctions and the deterioration of other biodiversity features worldwide have led to the adoption of systematic conservation planning in many regions of the world. As a consequence, various software tools for conservation planning have been developed over the past twenty years. These, tools implement algorithms designed to identify conservation area networks for the representation and persistence of biodiversity features. Budgetary, ethical, and other sociopolitical constraints dictate that the prioritized sites represent biodiversity with minimum impact on human interests. Planning tools are typically also used to satisfy these criteria. This chapter reviews both the concepts and technical choices that underlie the development of these tools. Conservation planning problems can be formulated as optimization problems, and we evaluate the suitability of different algorithms for their solution. Finally, we also review some key issues associated with the use of these tools, such as computational efficiency, the effectiveness of taxa and abiotic parameters at choosing surrogates for biodiversity, the process of setting explicit targets of representation for biodiversity surrogates, and

Assessing the Conservation Status and Threats to Priority Plants: a threat assessment approach and case study in South-East Queensland, Australia

bstract: During the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) process in south-east Queensland, the conservation status of, and threats to, priority vascular plant taxa in the region was assessed. Characteristics of biology, demography and distribution were used to assess the species' intrinsic risk of extinction. In contrast, the threats to the taxa (their extrinsic risk of extinction) were assessed using a decision-support protocol for setting conservation targets for taxa lacking population viability analyses and habitat modelling data. Disturbance processes known or suspected to be adversely affecting the taxa were evaluated for their intensity, extent and time-scale. Expert opinion was used to provide much of the data and to assess the recommended protection areas. Five categories of intrinsic risk of extinction were recognised for the 105 priority taxa: critically endangered (43 taxa); endangered (29); vulnerable (21); rare (10); and presumed extinct (2). Only 6 of the 103 extant taxa were found to be adequately reserved and the majority were considered inadequately protected to survive the current regimes of threatening processes affecting them. Data were insufficient to calculate a protection target for one extant taxon. Over half of the taxa require all populations to be conserved as well as active management to alleviate threatening processes. The most common threats to particular taxa were competition from weeds or native species, inappropriate fire regimes, agricultural clearing, forestry, grazing by native or feral species, drought, urban development, illegal collection of plants, and altered hydrology. Apart from drought and competition from native species, these disturbances are largely influenced or initiated by human actions. Therefore, as well as increased protection of most of the taxa, active management interventions are necessary to reduce the effects of threatening processes and to enable the persistence of the taxa.

Habitat use by Darling Downs population of the grassland earless dragon: implications for conservation.

A population of the grassland earless dragon (Tympanocryptis pinguicolla) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia, had been considered extinct until its recent rediscovery. We determined factors affecting grassland earless dragon abundance and prey availability in 3 habitats. Mean dragon body condition and prey numbers were higher in sorghum than grasslands and grass verges. Poisson regression analyses indicated that the dragon numbers were 10 times higher in sorghum, and that this may result from differences in prey numbers as well as other habitat conditions. Tracking data indicated selection of open versus closed microhabitat. Sorghum planted in rows provided alternating open and closed microhabitats for optimal thermoregulation conditions. Grasslands and grass verges were more uniformly shaded. Of individuals we tracked in the sorghum stubble, 85.7% used litter as overnight refuges. Litter was abundant in sorghum and sparse in grass habitats. The practices of minimum tillage and resting stubble strips possibly mitigate agricultural impacts on dragons and provide continuous access to suitable habitat. Changes in agricultural practices that affect the habitat suitability will potentially have detrimental impacts on the population. Our data suggest that conservation efforts be focused on maintaining suitability of habitats in crop fields. We recommend monitoring dragon abundance at control and trial sites of any new agricultural practices; this will provide opportunity to modify or stop undesirable practices before adoption by farmers. Conservation agencies may use our data as a baseline for monitoring long-term viability of the population.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.