Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Matching prescription claims with medication data for nursing home residents: Implications for prescriber feedback, drug utilisation studies and selection of prescription claims database

Medication data retrieved from Australian Repatriation Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (RPBS) claims for 44 veterans residing in nursing homes and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) claims for 898 nursing home residents were compared with medication data from nursing home records to determine the optimal time interval for retrieving claims data and its validity. Optimal matching was achieved using 12 weeks of RPBS claims data, with 60% of medications in the RPBS claims located in nursing home administration records, and 78% of medications administered to nursing home residents identified in RPBS claims. In comparison, 48% of medications administered to nursing home residents could be found in 12 weeks of PBS data, and 56% of medications present in PBS claims could be matched with nursing home administration records. RPBS claims data was superior to PBS, due to the larger number of scheduled items available to veterans and the veteran's file number, which acts as a unique identifier. These findings should be taken into account when using prescription claims data for medication histories, prescriber feedback, drug utilisation, intervention or epidemiological studies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Physical activity measurement - a primer of health promotion

As the importance of physical activity is recognised in health promotion, the task of measuring it becomes a central research and practice challenge. Measurement of physical activity is important to policy makers interested in population surveillance, as well as to practitioners interested in programme evaluation and research. This review outlines 'best practice' in physical activity measurement, and provides an inventory of established physical activity and related measures for use in health promotion programme evaluation, research and surveillance at the national and local level. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

Targeted! Population segmentation, electronic surveillance and governing the unemployed in Australia

Targeting is increasingly used to manage people. It operates by segmenting populations and providing different levels of opportunities and services to these groups. Each group is subject to different levels of surveillance and scrutiny. This article examines the deployment of targeting in Australian social security. Three case studies of targeting are presented in Australia's management of benefit overpayment and fraud, the distribution of employment services and the application of workfare. In conceptualizing surveillance as governance, the analysis examines the rationalities, technologies and practices that make targeting thinkable, practicable and achievable. In the case studies, targeting is variously conceptualized and justified by calculative risk discourses, moral discourses of obligation and notions of welfare dependency Advanced information technologies are also seen as particularly important in giving rise to the capacity to think about and act on population segments.

A proposal for developing a large patient population cohort for longterm safety monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis

This paper proposes the creation of an objectively acquired reference database to more accurately characterize the incidence and longterm risk of relatively infrequent, but serious, adverse events. Such a database would be maintained longitudinally to provide for ongoing comparison with new rheumatologic drug safety databases collecting the occurrences and treatments of rare events, We propose the establishment of product-specific registries to prospectively follow a cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who receive newly approved therapies. In addition, a database is required of a much larger cohort of RA patients treated with multiple second line agents of sufficient size to enable case-controlled determinations of the relative incidence of rare but serious events in the treated (registry) versus the larger disease population, The number of patients necessary for agent-specific registries and a larger patient population adequate to supply a matched case-control cohort will depend upon estimates of the detectability of an increased incidence over background. We suggest a system to carry out this proposal that will involve an umbrella organization. responsible for establishment of this large patient cohort, envisioned to be drawn from around the world.

Health and demographic characteristics of respondents in an Australian national sexuality survey: comparison with population norms

Study objective: To assess the representativeness of survey participants by systematically comparing volunteers in a national health and sexuality survey with the Australian population in terms of self reported health status (including the SF-36) and a wide range of demographic characteristics. Design: A cross sectional sample of Australian residents were compared with demographic data from the 1996 Australian census and health data from the 1995 National Health Survey. Setting: The Australian population. Participants: A stratified random sample of adults aged 18-59 years drawn from the Australian electoral roll, a compulsory register of voters. Interviews were completed with 1784 people, representing 40% of those initially selected (58% of those for whom a valid telephone number could be located). Main results: Participants were of similar age and sex to the national population. Consistent with prior research, respondents had higher socioeconomic status, more education, were more likely to be employed, and less likely to be immigrants. The prevalence estimates, means, and variances of self reported mental and physical health measures (for example, SF-36 subscales, women's health indicators, current smoking status) were similar to population norms. Conclusions: These findings considerably strengthen inferences about the representativeness of data on health status from volunteer samples used in health and sexuality surveys.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Mentoring for population health in general practice divisions

This paper describes the implementation and evaluation of a three-way model of service development mentoring. This population health mentoring program was funded by the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing to enable staff from eight Divisions of General Practice in South Australia to gain a sound understanding of population health concepts relevant to their workplace. The distinguishing features of service development mentoring were that the learning was grounded within an individual's work setting and experience; there was an identified population health problem or issue confronting the Division of General Practice; and there was an expectation of enhanced organisational performance. A formal evaluation found a consensus among all learners that mentoring was a positive and worthwhile experience, where they had achieved what they had set out to do. Mentors found the model of learning agreeable and effective. Division executive officers recognised enhanced skills among their "learner" colleagues, and commented positively on the benefits to their organisations through the development of well researched and relevant projects, with the potential to improve the efficiency of their population health activities.

Gender differentials in the evolution of cigarette smoking habits in a general European adult population from 1993-2003

Background: Describe the recent evolution of cigarette smoking habits by gender in Geneva, where incidence rates of lung cancer have been declining in men but increasing in women. Methods: Continuous cross-sectional surveillance of the general adult ( 35 - 74 yrs) population of Geneva, Switzerland for 11 years ( 1993 - 2003) using a locally-validated smoking questionnaire, yielding a representative random sample of 12,271 individuals ( 6,164 men, 6,107 women). Results: In both genders, prevalence of current cigarette smoking was stable over the 11-year period, at about one third of men and one quarter of women, even though smoking began at an earlier age in more recent years. Older men were more likely to be former smokers than older women. Younger men, but not women, tended to quit smoking at an earlier age. Conclusion: This continuous ( 1993 - 2003) risk factor surveillance system, unique in Europe, shows stable prevalence of smoking in both genders. However, sharp contrasts in age-specific prevalence of never and former smoking and of ages at smoking initiation indicate that smoking continues a long-term decline in men but has still not reached its peak in women.

Allelic Variation Investigation of the Estrogen Receptor Within an Australian Multiple Sclerosis Population

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a central nervous system (CNS) chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease leading to various neurological disabilities. The disorder is more prevalent for women with a ratio of 3:2 female to male. Objectives: To investigate variation within the estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) polymorphism gene in an Australian MS case-control population using two intragenic restriction fragment length polymorphisms; the G594A located in exon 8 detected with the BtgI restriction enzyme and T938C located in intron 1, detected with PvuII. One hundred and ten Australian MS patients were studied, with patients classified clinically as Relapsing Remitting MS (RR-MS), Secondary Progressive MS (SP-MS) or Primary Progressive MS (PP-MS). Also, 110 age, sex and ethnicity matched controls were investigated as a comparative group. No significant difference in the allelic distribution frequency was found between the case and control groups for the ESR1 PvuII (P = 0.50) and Btg1 (P = 0.45) marker. Our results do not support a role for these two ESR1 markers in multiple sclerosis susceptibility, however other markers within ESR1 should not be excluded for potential involvement in the disorder.

Comparison of surveys used to measure physical activity

Objective: To compare the level of agreement in results obtained from four physical activity (PA) measurement instruments that are in use in Australia and around the world. Methods: 1,280 randomly selected participants answered two sets of PA questions by telephone. 428 answered the Active Australia (AA) and National Health Surveys, 427 answered the AA and CDC Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (BRFSS), and 425 answered the AA survey and the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results: Among the three pairs of survey items, the difference in mean total PA time was lowest when the AA and NHS items were asked (difference=24) (SE:17) minutes, compared with 144 (SE:21) mins for AA/BRFSS and 406 (SE:27) mins for AA/IPAQ). Correspondingly, prevalence estimates for 'sufficiently active' were similar for AA and NHS (56% and 55% respectively), but about 10% higher when BRFSS data were used, and about 26% higher when the IPAQ items were used, compared with estimates from the AA survey. Conclusions: The findings clearly demonstrate that there are large differences in reported PA times and hence in prevalence estimates of 'sufficient activity' from these four measures. Implications: It is important to consistently use the same survey for population monitoring purposes. As the AA survey has now been used three times in national surveys, its continued use for population surveys is recommended so that trend data ever a longer period of time can be established.