Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Costs and decisions in population management: Koalas on Kangaroo Island

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat, or upon other species in the environment, if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often managed using some form of control. The objective is to keep numbers at a sustainable level, while ensuring survival of the population.+Here we present models that allow population management programs to be assessed. Two common control regimes will be considered: reduction and suppression. Under the suppression regime the previous population is maintained close to a particular threshold through near continuous control, while under the reduction regime, control begins once the previous population reaches a certain threshold and continues until it falls below a lower pre-defined level. We discuss how to best choose the control parameters, and we provide tools that allow population managers to select reduction levels and control rates. Additional tools will be provided to assess the effect of different control regimes, in terms of population persistence and cost.In particular we consider the effects of each regime on the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and compare the control methods in terms of the expected total cost of each regime over the life of the population. The usefulness of our results will be illustrated with reference to the control of a koala population inhabiting Kangaroo Island, Australia.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Approximating persistence in a general class of population processes

We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia

To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years. Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged >= 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates. Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens. The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

The epidemiology and genetics of smoking initiation and persistence: Crosscultural comparisons of twin study results

We examined whether there are crosscultural differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental contributions to risk of becoming a regular smoker and of persistence in smoking in men and women. Standard methods of epidemiologic and genetic analysis were applied to questionnaire data on history of cigarette use obtained from large samples of male and female like-sex twins from three different countries: Australia (N = 2284 pairs), Sweden (N = 8651 pairs), and Finland (N = 10,948 pairs). Samples were subdivided into three age groups (AG), 18-25 years, 26-35 years, and 36-46 years of age. The magnitude of genetic influence for lifetime smoking was found to be consistent across country and AG for women (46%) and men (57%), and estimates of the contribution from environmental influences shared by twin and co-twin could be equated across all countries by AG for the women (from youngest to oldest AG: 45%, 35%, and 26%), but not for men, with separate estimates obtained for the Scandinavian (33%, 29%, and 19%) and the Australian men (26%, 9%, and 11 %). There was no evidence for an important role for shared environmental influences on persistent smoking, and the genetic contribution was found to be consistent in magnitude in men and women, and the same across country and AG (52%). There are strong genetic influences on smoking behavior, and that risk of becoming a smoker (but not persistence in smoking) may be modified by experiences shared by twins that differ by AG and, at least for men, cultural background.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.

Long-term persistence of multi-drug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Newport in two dairy herds

Objective - To evaluate the association between maintaining joint hospital and maternity pens;and persistence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport on 2 dairy farms. Design - Observational study. Sample Population - Feces and environmental samples from 2 dairy herds. Procedure - Herds were monitored for fecal shedding of S enterica Newport after outbreaks of clinical disease. Fecal and environmental samples were collected approximately monthly from pens housing sick cows and calving cows and from pens containing lactating cows. Cattle shedding the organism were tested serially on subsequent visits to determine carrier status. One farm was resampled after initiation of interventional procedures, including separation of hospital and maternity pens. Isolates were characterized via serotyping, determination of antimicrobial resistance phenotype, detection of the CMY-2 gene, and DNA fingerprinting. Results - The prevalence (32.4% and 33.3% on farms A and B, respectively) of isolating Salmonella from samples from joint hospital-maternity pens was significantly higher than the prevalence in samples from pens housing preparturient cows (0.8%, both farms) and postparturient cows on Farm B (8.8%). Multi-drug-resistant Salmonella Newport was isolated in high numbers from bedding material, feed refusals, lagoon slurry, and milk filters. One cow excreted the organism for 190 days. Interventional procedures yielded significant reductions in the prevalences of isolating the organism from fecal and environmental samples. Most isolates were of the C2 serogroup and were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance - Management practices may be effective at reducing the persistence of MDR Salmonella spp in dairy herds, thus mitigating animal and public health risk.

Allelic Variation Investigation of the Estrogen Receptor Within an Australian Multiple Sclerosis Population

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a central nervous system (CNS) chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease leading to various neurological disabilities. The disorder is more prevalent for women with a ratio of 3:2 female to male. Objectives: To investigate variation within the estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) polymorphism gene in an Australian MS case-control population using two intragenic restriction fragment length polymorphisms; the G594A located in exon 8 detected with the BtgI restriction enzyme and T938C located in intron 1, detected with PvuII. One hundred and ten Australian MS patients were studied, with patients classified clinically as Relapsing Remitting MS (RR-MS), Secondary Progressive MS (SP-MS) or Primary Progressive MS (PP-MS). Also, 110 age, sex and ethnicity matched controls were investigated as a comparative group. No significant difference in the allelic distribution frequency was found between the case and control groups for the ESR1 PvuII (P = 0.50) and Btg1 (P = 0.45) marker. Our results do not support a role for these two ESR1 markers in multiple sclerosis susceptibility, however other markers within ESR1 should not be excluded for potential involvement in the disorder.

Modifying insect population age structure to control vector-borne disease

Age is a critical determinant of the ability of most arthropod vectors to transmit a range of human pathogens. This is due to the fact that most pathogens require a period of extrinsic incubation in the arthropod host before pathogen transmission can occur. This developmental period for the pathogen often comprises a significant proportion of the expected lifespan of the vector. As such, only a small proportion of the population that is oldest contributes to pathogen transmission. Given this, strategies that target vector age would be expected to obtain the most significant reductions in the capacity of a vector population to transmit disease. The recent identification of biological agents that shorten vector lifespan, such as Wolbachia, entomopathogenic fungi and densoviruses, offer new tools for the control of vector-borne diseases. Evaluation of the efficacy of these strategies under field conditions will be possible due to recent advances in insect age-grading techniques. Implementation of all of these strategies will require extensive field evaluation and consideration of the selective pressures that reductions in vector longevity may induce on both vector and pathogen.

Population subdivision in marine environments: the contributions of biogeography, geographic distance, and discontinuous habitat to genetic differentiation in a blennioid

The relative importance of factors that may promote genetic differentiation in marine organisms is largely unknown. Here, contributions to population structure from biogeography, habitat distribution, and isolation by distance were investigated in Axoclinus nigricaudus, a small subtidal rock reef fish, throughout its range in the Gulf of California. A 408 basepair fragment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from 105 individuals. Variation was significantly partitioned between many pairs of populations. Phylogenetic analyses, hierarchical analyses of variance, and general linear models substantiated a major break between two putative biogeographic regions. This genetic discontinuity coincides with an abrupt change in ecological characteristics (including temperature and salinity) but does not coincide with known oceanographic circulation patterns. Geographic distance and the nature of habitat separating populations (continuous habitat along a shoreline, discontinuous habitat along a shoreline, and open water) also contributed to population structure in general linear model analyses. To verify that local populations are genetically stable over time, one population was resampled on four occasions over eighteen months; it showed no evidence of a temporal component to diversity. These results indicate that having a planktonic life stage does not preclude geographically partitioned genetic variation over relatively small geographic distances in marine environments. Moreover, levels of genetic differentiation among populations of Axoclinus nigricaudus cannot be explained by a single factor, but are due to the combined influences of a biogeographic boundary, habitat, and geographic distance.