Thirty-year recovery trend in the once depleted Hawaiian green sea turtle stock

The green sea turtle is one of the long-lived species that comprise the charismatic marine megafauna. The green turtle has a long history of human exploitation with some stocks extinct. Here we report on a 30-year study of the nesting abundance of the green turtle stock endemic to the Hawaiian Archipelago. We show that there has been a substantial long-term increase in abundance of this once seriously depleted stock following cessation of harvesting since the 1970s. This population increase has occurred in a far shorter period of time than previously thought possible. There was also a distinct 3-4 year periodicity in annual nesting abundance that might be a function of regional environmental stochasticity that synchronises breeding behaviour throughout the Archipelago. This is one of the few reliable long-term population abundance time series for a large long-lived marine species, which are needed for gaining insights into the recovery process of long-lived marine species and long-term ecological processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding city fringe gentrification: The role of a potential investment gap

Discussion of gentrification has become ‘balkanised’ into a series of competing and intensely-held positions. The dichotomies are between economic and cultural explanations, supply-side and demand-side explanations and structural Marxist and liberal humanist views. Despite the long academic and policy interest in gentrification there is still no clear definition of what it is and why it occurs. However, almost all previous analyses see gentrification as an inner-city phenomenon and so deal with it within framework of inner-city theory and causation. This paper approaches the debate from a somewhat different position. It argues that gentrification, seen as the replacement of lower status and income households by higher status and income households, can occur outside the inner city. It uses clear cases of gentrification on the urban fringe of metropolitan Brisbane in South East Queensland, to explore mechanisms and explanations. The key to this ‘gentrification by the sea’ is a ‘potential investment gap’ between current and potential future property values, based on increasing demand for a limited locational resource – but instead of this being inner-city properties it is waterside land in a regional facing rapid population increase. The paper also draws attention to the inadequate recognition of the roles of the state and the media in previous analyses of gentrification.

Increase of a Caribbean leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea nesting population linked to long-term nest protection

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CL 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the population cost-effectiveness of current and evidence-based optimal treatment for anxiety disorders

Background. The present paper describes a component of a large Population cost-effectiveness study that aimed to identify the averted burden and economic efficiency of current and optimal treatment for the major mental disorders. This paper reports on the findings for the anxiety disorders (panic disorder/agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder). Method. Outcome was calculated as averted 'years lived with disability' (YLD), a population summary measure of disability burden. Costs were the direct health care costs in 1997-8 Australian dollars. The cost per YLD averted (efficiency) was calculated for those already in contact with the health system for a mental health problem (current care) and for a hypothetical optimal care package of evidence-based treatment for this same group. Data sources included the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being and published treatment effects and unit costs. Results. Current coverage was around 40% for most disorders with the exception of social phobia at 21%. Receipt of interventions consistent with evidence-based care ranged from 32% of those in contact with services for social phobia to 64% for post-traumatic stress disorder. The cost of this care was estimated at $400 million, resulting in a cost per YLD averted ranging from $7761 for generalized anxiety disorder to $34 389 for panic/agoraphobia. Under optimal care, costs remained similar but health gains were increased substantially, reducing the cost per YLD to < $20 000 for all disorders. Conclusions. Evidence-based care for anxiety disorders would produce greater population health gain at a similar cost to that of current care, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost-effectiveness of treatment.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

Is the increase in coronary events on Mondays an artifact?

Background: The aim of this article was to investigate the size and possible causes of the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays. Methods: We conducted a metaanalysis of data from the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project, which monitored trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. The MONICA Project was undertaken in 21 countries from 1980 to 1995. Results: We found a small overall excess rate of coronary events on Mondays. In a population experiencing 100 events per week, we estimate there would be approximately I more event on Monday than on any other day. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that the Monday excess was greater in centers with less thorough data collection procedures. Conclusions: The excess of coronary events on Mondays is probably an artifact resulting from events with uncertain dates being coded as taking place on Mondays.

Violence against young Australian women and association with reproductive events: a cross-sectional analysis of a national population sample

Objective: This study aimed to investigate associations between violence and younger women's reproductive events using Survey 1 (1996) data of the Younger cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health (ALSWH). Methods: Multinomial regression, using composite variables for both violence and reproductive events, adjusting for socioeconomic variables and weighted for rural and remote areas. Results: 23.8% of 14,784 women aged 18 to 23 years reported violence; 12.6% reported non-partner violence in the previous year; and 11.2% reported ever having had a violent relationship with a partner. Of the latter group, 43% (4.8% overall) also reported violence in the past year. Compared with women reporting no violence, women reporting partner but not recent violence (OR 2.55, 95% Cl 2.10-3.09) or partner and recent violence (OR 3.96, 95% Cl 3.18-4.93) were significantly more likely to have had one or more pregnancies. Conversely, having had a pregnancy (2,561) was associated with an 80% increase in prevalence of any violence and a 230% increase in partner violence. Among women who had a pregnancy, having had a miscarriage or termination was associated with violence. Partner and recent violence is strongly associated with having had a miscarriage, whether alone (OR = 2.85, 95% Cl 1.74-4.66), with a termination (OR = 4.60, 2.26-9.35), or with birth, miscarriage and a termination (OR 4.12, 1.89-9.00). Conclusions and implications: Violence among young women of childbearing age is a factor for which doctors should be vigilant, well-trained and supported to identify and manage effectively.

Acute exposure to cyclosporine does not increase plasma homocysteine in rats

There is interest in the postulate that cyclosporine a (CsA) contributes to the elevated homocysteine levels seen in organ transplant recipients, as hyperhomocysteinemia is now considered an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and may partially explain the increased prevalence of CVD in this population. The main purpose of this investigation was to determine the effect of CsA administration on plasma homocysteine. Eighteen female Sprague Dawley rats (4 months old) were randomly assigned to either a treatment or a control group. For 18 days the treatment group received of CsA (25 mg/kg/d) while the control group received the same volume of the vehicle. Blood samples obtained following sacrifice to measure CsA, total homocysteine, and plasma creatinine. There were no significant differences in plasma homocysteine (mean values SD: treatment = 4.79 +/- 0.63 mu mol/L, control = 4.46 +/- 0.75 mu mol/L; P = .37). Homocysteine was not significantly correlated with final CsA concentrations (r = .17; P = .69). There was a significant difference in plasma creatinine values between the two groups (treatment = 60.44 +/- 7.68 mu mol/L, control = 46.33 +/- 1.66 mu mol/L; P < .001). Furthermore, plasma homocysteine and creatinine were positively correlated with the treatment group (r = .73; P < .05) but not the controls (r = -.10; P = .81). In conclusion, CsA does not influence plasma homocysteine concentrations in rats.

The population pharmacokinetics of citalopram after deliberate self-poisoning: A Bayesian approach

Defining the pharmacokinetics of drugs in overdose is complicated. Deliberate self-poisoning is generally impulsive and associated with poor accuracy in dose history. In addition, early blood samples are rarely collected to characterize the whole plasma-concentration time profile and the effect of decontamination on the pharmacokinetics is uncertain. The aim of this study was to explore a fully Bayesian methodology for population pharmacokinetic analysis of data that arose from deliberate self-poisoning with citalopram. Prior information on the pharmacokinetic parameters was elicited from 14 published studies on citalopram when taken in therapeutic doses. The data set included concentration-time data from 53 patients studied after 63 citalopram overdose events (dose range: 20-1700 mg). Activated charcoal was administered between 0.5 and 4 h after 17 overdose events. The clinical investigator graded the veracity of the patients' dosing history on a 5-point ordinal scale. Inclusion of informative priors stabilised the pharmacokinetic model and the population mean values could be estimated well. There were no indications of non-linear clearance after excessive doses. The final model included an estimated uncertainty of the dose amount which in a simulation study was shown to not affect the model's ability to characterise the effects of activated charcoal. The effect of activated charcoal on clearance and bioavailability was pronounced and resulted in a 72% increase and 22% decrease, respectively. These findings suggest charcoal administration is potentially beneficial after citalopram overdose. The methodology explored seems promising for exploring the dose-exposure relationship in the toxicological settings.

Potential to increase yield in lucerne (Medicago sativa subsp sativa) through introgression of Medicago sativa subsp falcata into Australian adapted material

The effect of interspecific heterosis in crosses between Medicago sativa subsp. sativa and M. sativa subsp. falcata was assessed. Three sativa and 3 falcata plants were crossed in a diallel design. Progeny dry matter yield and natural plant height were assessed in a replicated field experiment at Gatton, Queensland. Yield data were analysed using the method of residual maximum likelihood (REML) and Griffing's model 1. There were significant differences between the reciprocal, general combining ability (GCA), and specific combining ability (SCA) effects. As expected, S-1 populations were lower yielding than their respective intraspecific cross and falcata x falcata crosses were significantly lower yielding than sativa x sativa crosses. Some of the interspecific crosses indicated substantial SCA effects, yielding at least as well as the best sativa x sativa crosses. We have demonstrated the potential usefulness of unselected M. sativa subsp. falcata as a heterotic group in the improvement of yield in northern Australian adapted lucerne material, and discuss how it could be incorporated into future breeding to overcome the yield stagnation currently being experienced in Australian programs.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Increase in skin cancer screening during a community-based randomized intervention trial

Survival from cutaneous melanoma is mainly dependent on the thickness of the lesion at diagnosis. Skin screening may increase detection of thin lesions and hence improve survival. Within a community-based randomized controlled trial of a population screening program for melanoma in Queensland, Australia, 9 communities were randomly assigned to the 3-year intervention and 9 communities to the control group. Skin screening prevalence was monitored by cross-sectional surveys at baseline, 1, 2 and 3 years into the intervention and 2 years later. At baseline, prevalence of whole-body clinical skin examination was similar in intervention and control communities. In intervention communities, the prevalence of whole-body skin examinations increased to 29.2%, an absolute difference of 18% from baseline, with a peak of 34.8% 2 years after baseline, and began to decline again at the end of the intervention period. The largest increases were seen in men and women ≥50 years. Uptake of screening did not differ according to melanoma risk factors; however, the decline in screening was less in participants who reported a number of melanoma risk factors. The prevalence of skin self-examination remained stable during the intervention program. No changes were observed in the control communities. These results indicate that the intervention program significantly increased the prevalence of whole-body clinical skin examinations in intervention communities. Once the intervention program ceased, and particularly after skin clinics ceased, levels of skin screening began to decline. The provision of specialized skin screening clinics may be needed to achieve sufficient screening rates should population based screening for skin cancer be considered. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Long-term increase in sunscreen use in an Australian community after a skin cancer prevention trial

Background. Given the public health burden of skin cancer in white populations, an increase in sun protective behavior is needed. In a highrisk community, we assessed long-term Sunscreen use among people who had participated in a randomized trial of daily Sunscreen application for prevention of skin cancer. Methods. In 1992, 1621 residents of the subtropical Australian township of Nambour were randomly allocated to either daily or discretionary sunscreen use until 1996. From 1997 to 2002, we monitored by questionnaires their ongoing sunscreen use. Results. People who had never or irregularly used sunscreen when in summer sun before the trial were more likely (P < 0.0001) to be sustaining regular application especially to their face (20% vs. 11%) and forearms (14% vs. 5%) if they had been allocated to daily, not discretionary, use of sunscreen for 5 years. Conclusions. Regular voluntary sunscreen use for skin cancer prevention can be sustained by sun-sensitive people in the long term. Habit formation appears to be an important goal for sun protection programs among those living, or on vacation, in sunny places. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.