A modified Weibull distribution

A new lifetime distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard-rate function is proposed. The proposed model is derived as a limiting case of the Beta Integrated Model and has both the Weibull distribution and Type I extreme value distribution as special cases. The model can be considered as another useful 3-parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution. An advantage of the model is that the model parameters can be estimated easily based on a Weibull probability paper (WPP) plot that serves as a tool for model identification. Model characterization based on the WPP plot is studied. A numerical example is provided and comparison with another Weibull extension, the exponentiated Weibull, is also discussed. The proposed model compares well with other competing models to fit data that exhibits a bathtub-shaped hazard-rate function.

Weibull model selection for reliability modelling

A large number of models have been derived from the two-parameter Weibull distribution and are referred to as Weibull models. They exhibit a wide range of shapes for the density and hazard functions, which makes them suitable for modelling complex failure data sets. The WPP and IWPP plot allows one to determine in a systematic manner if one or more of these models are suitable for modelling a given data set. This paper deals with this topic.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

n-fold Weibull multiplicative model

In this paper we study the n-fold multiplicative model involving Weibull distributions and examine some properties of the model. These include the shapes for the density and failure rate functions and the WPP plot. These allow one to decide if a given data set can be adequately modelled by the model. We also discuss the estimation of model parameters based on the WPP plot. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heavy tails, importance sampling and cross-entropy

We consider the problem of estimating P(Yi + (...) + Y-n > x) by importance sampling when the Yi are i.i.d. and heavy-tailed. The idea is to exploit the cross-entropy method as a toot for choosing good parameters in the importance sampling distribution; in doing so, we use the asymptotic description that given P(Y-1 + (...) + Y-n > x), n - 1 of the Yi have distribution F and one the conditional distribution of Y given Y > x. We show in some specific parametric examples (Pareto and Weibull) how this leads to precise answers which, as demonstrated numerically, are close to being variance minimal within the parametric class under consideration. Related problems for M/G/l and GI/G/l queues are also discussed.

Improved algorithms for rare event simulation with heavy tails

The estimation of P(S-n > u) by simulation, where S, is the sum of independent. identically distributed random varibles Y-1,..., Y-n, is of importance in many applications. We propose two simulation estimators based upon the identity P(S-n > u) = nP(S, > u, M-n = Y-n), where M-n = max(Y-1,..., Y-n). One estimator uses importance sampling (for Y-n only), and the other uses conditional Monte Carlo conditioning upon Y1,..., Yn-1. Properties of the relative error of the estimators are derived and a numerical study given in terms of the M/G/1 queue in which n is replaced by an independent geometric random variable N. The conclusion is that the new estimators compare extremely favorably with previous ones. In particular, the conditional Monte Carlo estimator is the first heavy-tailed example of an estimator with bounded relative error. Further improvements are obtained in the random-N case, by incorporating control variates and stratification techniques into the new estimation procedures.

The states, diffusion, and concentration distribution of water in radiation-formed PVA/PVP hydrogels

Hydrogels with various compositions of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and poly(1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidinone) (PVP) were prepared by irradiating mixtures of PVA and PVP in aqueous solutions with gamma-rays from Co-60 sources at room temperature. The states of water in the hydrogels were characterized using DSC and NMR T-2 relaxation measurements and the kinetics of water diffusion in the hydrogels were studied by sorption experiments and NMR imaging. The DSC endothermic peaks in the temperature range -10 to +10 degrees C implied that there are at least two kinds of freezable water present in the matrix. The difference between the total water content and the freezable water content was refer-red to as bound water, which is not freezable. The weight fraction of water at which only nonfreezable water is present in a hydrogel with F-VP = 0.19 has been estimated to be g(H2O)/g(Polymer) = 0.375. From water sorption experiments, it was demonstrated that the early stage of the diffusion of water into the hydrogels was Fickian. A curve-fit of the early-stage experimental data to the Fickian model allowed determination of the water diffusion coefficient, which was found to lie between 1.5 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) and 4.5 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1), depending on the polymer composition, the cross-link density, and the temperature. It was also found that the energy barrier for diffusion of water molecules into PVA/PVP hydrogels was approximate to 24 kJ mol(-1). Additionally, the diffusion coefficients determined from NMR imaging of the volumetric swelling of the gels agreed well with the results obtained by the mass sorption method.

Controlled release of heparin from poly(epsilon-caprolactone) electrospun fibers

Sustained delivery of heparin to the localized adventitial surface of grafted blood vessels has been shown to prevent the vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation that can lead to graft occlusion and failure. In this study heparin was incorporated into electrospun poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) fiber mats for assessment as a controlled delivery device. Fibers with smooth surfaces and no bead defects could be spun from polymer solutions with 8% w/v PCL in 7:3 dichloromethane: methanol. A significant decrease in fiber diameter was observed with increasing heparin concentration. Assessment of drug loading, and imaging of fluorescently labeled heparin showed homogenous distribution of heparin throughout the fiber mats. A total of approximately half of the encapsulated heparin was released by diffusional control from the heparin/PCL fibers after 14 days. The fibers did not induce an inflammatory response in macrophage cells in vitro and the released heparin was effective in preventing the proliferation of VSMCs in culture. These results suggest that electrospun PCL fibers are a promising candidate for delivery of heparin to the site of vascular injury. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introducing amine functionalities on a poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) surface: Comparing the use of ammonia plasma treatment and ethylenediamine aminolysis

Amine functionalities were introduced onto the surface of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) films by applying radio frequency ammonia plasma treatment and wet ethylenediamine treatment. The modified surfaces were characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) for chemical composition and Raman microspectroscopy for the spatial distribution of the chemical moieties. The relative amount of amine functionalities introduced onto the PHBV surface was determined by exposing the treated films to the vapor of trifluoromethylbenzaldehyde (TFBA) prior to XPS analysis. The highest amount of amino groups on the PHBV surface could be introduced by use of ammonia plasma at short treatment times of 5 and 10 s, but no effect of plasma power within the range of 2.5-20 W was observed. Ethylenediamine treatment yielded fewer surface amino groups, and in addition an increase in crystallinity as well as degradation of PHBV was evident from Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Raman maps showed that the coverage of amino groups on the PHBV surfaces was patchy with large areas having no amine functionalities.

Liquid distribution as a means to describing the granule growth mechanism

Copper concentrate (chalcopyrite) was granulated in a rotating drum with a diameter of 0.3 m and a length of 0.2 m. Water was used as the binder and it was sprayed onto the powder bed with a nozzle. This material exhibited induction type behaviour, which was defined by Iveson and Litster [AIChE J. 44 (1998) 1510]. Induction type behaviour is characterized by the occurrence of an induction stage, during which the granules are gradually being compacted and little or no growth occurs. At the end of this induction stage, binder liquid is squeezed from the interior of the granules onto the granule surface and the granules are then surface-wet. This results in a rapid growth rate of the granules. Different types of experiments were conducted. The influence of the nozzle pressure and the distance from the nozzle to the powder bed on the growth behaviour of the granules as well as on the binder distribution was examined. The results of these experiments led to the postulation of a modified mechanism for induction type behaviour: it was found that after the binder was delivered, there were large granules containing a high amount of binder and small granules containing less binder. During the induction stage, the granules are compacted and binder liquid continuously appears at the surface of the large granules. These wet spots that are continuously being formed pick up the dry and small granules. When all the small granules have been picked up, further expulsion of binder liquid onto the granules' surface results in granules that remain surface-wet. This phenomenon marks the end of the induction stage and it coincides with the disappearance of the small granules. The hypothesis was tested by selectively removing the smaller granules during an experiment. As expected, this resulted in a shorter induction time.

Distribution of major, minor, and trace metals in lake environments of Antarctica

The concentrations of major, minor and trace metals were measured in water samples collected from five shallow Antarctic lakes (Carezza, Edmonson Point (No 14 and 15a), Inexpressible Island and Tarn Flat) found in Terra Nova Bay (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica) during the Italian Expeditions of 1993-2001. The total concentrations of a large suite of elements (Al, As, Ba, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Ga, Gd, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nd, Ni, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sc, Si, Sr, Ta, Ti, U, V, Y, W, Zn and Zr) were determined using spectroscopic techniques (ICP-AES, GF-AAS and ICP-MS). The results are similar to those obtained for the freshwater lakes of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica, and for the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA) were performed to identify groups of samples with similar characteristics and to find correlations between the variables. The variability observed within the water samples is closely connected to the sea spray input; hence, it is primarily a consequence of geographical and meteorological factors, such as distance from the ocean and time of year. The trace element levels, in particular those of heavy metals, are very low, suggesting an origin from natural sources rather than from anthropogenic contamination.

Distribution, expression, and motif variability of ankyrin domain genes in Wolbachia pipientis

The endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis infects a wide range of arthropods, in which it induces a variety of reproductive phenotypes, including cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), parthenogenesis, male killing, and reversal of genetic sex determination. The recent sequencing and annotation of the first Wolbachia genome revealed an unusually high number of genes encoding ankyrin domain (ANK) repeats. These ANK genes are likely to be important in mediating the Wolbachia-host interaction. In this work we determined the distribution and expression of the different ANK genes found in the sequenced Wolbachia wMel genome in nine Wolbachia strains that induce different phenotypic effects in their hosts. A comparison of the ANK genes of wMel and the non-CI-inducing wAu Wolbachia strain revealed significant differences between the strains. This was reflected in sequence variability in shared genes that could result in alterations in the encoded proteins, such as motif deletions, amino acid insertions, and in some cases disruptions due to insertion of transposable elements and premature stops. In addition, one wMel ANK gene, which is part of an operon, was absent in the wAu genome. These variations are likely to affect the affinity, function, and cellular location of the predicted proteins encoded by these genes.

Cytoplasmic incompatibility in Drosophila populations: influence of assortative mating on symbiont distribution

Cytoplasmic incompatibility is known to occur between strains of both Drosophila simulans and D. melanogaster. Incompatibility is associated with the infection of Drosophila with microorganismal endosymbionts. This paper reports survey work conducted on strains of D. simulans and D. melanogaster from diverse geographical locations finding that infected populations are relatively rare and scattered in their distribution. The distribution of infected populations of D. simulans appears to be at odds with deterministic models predicting the rapid spread of the infection through uninfected populations. Examination of isofemale lines from four localities in California where populations appear to be polymorphic for the infection failed to find evidence for consistent assortative mating preferences between infected and uninfected populations that may explain the basis for the observed polymorphism.