Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

Is cannabis use a contributory cause of psychosis?

Objective: To assess whether cannabis use in adolescence and young adulthood is a contributory cause of schizophreniform psychosis in that it may precipitate psychosis in vulnerable individuals. Method: We reviewed longitudinal studies of adolescents and young adults that examined the relations between self-reported cannabis use and the risk of diagnosis with a psychosis or of reporting psychotic symptoms. We also reviewed studies that controlled for potential confounders, such as other forms of drug use and personal characteristics that predict an increased risk of psychosis. We assessed evidence for the biological plausibility of a contributory causal relation. Results: Evidence from 6 longitudinal studies in 5 countries shows that regular cannabis use predicts an increased risk of a schizophrenia diagnosis or of reporting symptoms of psychosis. These relations persisted after controlling for confounding variables, such as personal characteristics and other drug use. The relation did not seem to be a result of cannabis use to self-medicate symptoms of psychosis. A contributory causal relation is biologically plausible because psychotic disorders involve disturbances in the dopamine neurotransmitter systems with which the cannabinoid system interacts, as demonstrated by animal studies and one human provocation study. Conclusion: It is most plausible that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia in individuals who are vulnerable because of a personal or family history of schizophrenia.

The DVD animal model of schizophrenia: Effects of low maternal vitamin D on brain dopamine

Background: We have previously shown that the offspring of vitamin D3 depleted rats have enlarged ventricles and altered neurotrophin profiles (reduced NGF and GDNF). These findings enhance the biological plausibility that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. Our recent behavioural studies have found that adult rats with developmental vitamin D deficiency (DVD) have a subtle increase in baseline locomotor activity and a heightened response to dopamine (DA) antagonists. The aim of this study was to investigate brain DA neurochemistry in the DVD model. Methods: We examined cerebrums and striatal tissue from neonates and a variety of brain tissues from the remaining littermates at adulthood. DA, DOPAC, HVA, serotonin and 5HIAA were analysed by HPLC. Single point comparisons for DA1, DA2 and NMDA receptors were also assessed in these tissues. Results: Significant increases in DA and HVA were found in brains from DVD deplete neonates (P=0.01). However, DA and its metabolites were not increased in either the neonate or adult striatum, however there was a trend towards increased DA and its metabolites in the accumbens (P=0.1). Receptor densities were unaffected by prenatal vitamin D levels. Conclusions: Although the effect of maternal diet appears to increase DA production and turnover in neonatal brain, this does not persist into adulthood. Thus other factors must underlie the increased locomotor activity noted in these animals. Future experiments will concentrate on monitoring accumbens and striatal DA release and turnover using microdialysis in pharmacologically challenged behavioural paradigms. References: Eyles D, Brown J; Mackay-Sim A, McGrath J, Feron F. (2003) Vitamin D3 and brain development. Neuroscience 118 (3) 641–653. Burne T, McGrath J, Eyles D, Mackay-Sim A. Behavioural characterization of vitamin D receptor knockout mice. (2005) Behavioural Brain Res: 157 299–308.

What are the policy implications of the evidence on cannabis and psychosis?

Objective: To explore the implications for mental health services, for health education about the risks of cannabis use, and for public policy toward cannabis use of observational evidence that cannabis use is a contributory cause of psychosis. Method: Using comparative analyses of similar evidence for the harmful effects of alcohol, tobacco, and amphetamine use, we considered the relation between observational evidence and action on cannabis. We examined arguments on the grounds of public health prudence for discouraging cannabis use by young individuals. With the assumption that the relation may be causal, we considered recommendations for policy in mental health services, health education, and public policy toward cannabis. Results: The observational evidence and biological plausibility of the hypothesis that cannabis is a contributory cause of psychosis is at least as strong as evidence for causal relations between heavy alcohol and amphetamine use and psychosis. On public health grounds, there is a good case for discouraging cannabis use among adolescents and young adults. It remains uncertain how best to discourage use and at whom campaigns to reduce cannabis use should be targeted. Conclusions: We should discourage young adults seeking treatment in mental health services from using cannabis and inform them of the probable mental health risks of cannabis use, especially of early and frequent use. We must exercise caution in liberalizing cannabis laws in ways that may increase young individuals' access to cannabis, decrease their age of first use, or increase their frequency of cannabis use. We should consider the feasibility of reducing the availability of high-potency cannabis products.

What does the community think about lifespan extension technologies? The need for an empirical base for ethical and policy debates

Objectives: This paper examines public understandings of possibilities for increasing life expectancy, interest in taking up lifespan-extending interventions, and motivations influencing these intentions. Methods: Structured interviews were conducted with 31 adults, aged 50 and over. Results: Participants believed that technological advances would increase life expectancy but questioned the value of quantity over quality of life. Life in itself was not considered valuable without the ability to put it to good use. Participants would not use technologies to extend their own lifespan unless the result would also enhance their health. Conclusions: These findings may not be generalisable to the general public but they provide the first empirical evidence on the plausibility of common assumptions about public interest in 'anti-ageing' interventions. Surveys of the views of representative samples of the population are needed to inform the development of a research agenda on the ethical, legal and social implications of lifespan extension.