Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Patterns in complex systems modeling

The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

A tool for a formal pattern modeling language

This paper presents a formal but practical approach for defining and using design patterns. Initially we formalize the concepts commonly used in defining design patterns using Object-Z. We also formalize consistency constraints that must be satisfied when a pattern is deployed in a design model. Then we implement the pattern modeling language and its consistency constraints using an existing modeling framework, EMF, and incorporate the implementation as plug-ins to the Eclipse modeling environment. While the language is defined formally in terms of Object-Z definitions, the language is implemented in a practical environment. Using the plug-ins, users can develop precise pattern descriptions without knowing the underlying formalism, and can use the tool to check the validity of the pattern descriptions and pattern usage in design models. In this work, formalism brings precision to the pattern language definition and its implementation brings practicability to our pattern-based modeling approach.

Off-line signature verification and forgery detection system based on fuzzy modeling

This paper presents an innovative approach for signature verification and forgery detection based on fuzzy modeling. The signature image is binarized and resized to a fixed size window and is then thinned. The thinned image is then partitioned into a fixed number of eight sub-images called boxes. This partition is done using the horizontal density approximation approach. Each sub-image is then further resized and again partitioned into twelve further sub-images using the uniform partitioning approach. The features of consideration are normalized vector angle (α) from each box. Each feature extracted from sample signatures gives rise to a fuzzy set. Since the choice of a proper fuzzification function is crucial for verification, we have devised a new fuzzification function with structural parameters, which is able to adapt to the variations in fuzzy sets. This function is employed to develop a complete forgery detection and verification system.

Fuzzy modeling based recognition of multi-font numerals

In this paper, we present a new scheme for off-line recognition of multi-font numerals using the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) model. In this scheme, the binary image of a character is partitioned into a fixed number of sub-images called boxes. The features consist of normalized vector distances (gamma) from each box. Each feature extracted from different fonts gives rise to a fuzzy set. However, when we have a small number of fonts as in the case of multi-font numerals, the choice of a proper fuzzification function is crucial. Hence, we have devised a new fuzzification function involving parameters, which take account of the variations in the fuzzy sets. The new fuzzification function is employed in the TS model for the recognition of multi-font numerals.