Factors supporting the non-persistence of fruit fly populations in South Australia

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

The epidemiology and genetics of smoking initiation and persistence: Crosscultural comparisons of twin study results

We examined whether there are crosscultural differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental contributions to risk of becoming a regular smoker and of persistence in smoking in men and women. Standard methods of epidemiologic and genetic analysis were applied to questionnaire data on history of cigarette use obtained from large samples of male and female like-sex twins from three different countries: Australia (N = 2284 pairs), Sweden (N = 8651 pairs), and Finland (N = 10,948 pairs). Samples were subdivided into three age groups (AG), 18-25 years, 26-35 years, and 36-46 years of age. The magnitude of genetic influence for lifetime smoking was found to be consistent across country and AG for women (46%) and men (57%), and estimates of the contribution from environmental influences shared by twin and co-twin could be equated across all countries by AG for the women (from youngest to oldest AG: 45%, 35%, and 26%), but not for men, with separate estimates obtained for the Scandinavian (33%, 29%, and 19%) and the Australian men (26%, 9%, and 11 %). There was no evidence for an important role for shared environmental influences on persistent smoking, and the genetic contribution was found to be consistent in magnitude in men and women, and the same across country and AG (52%). There are strong genetic influences on smoking behavior, and that risk of becoming a smoker (but not persistence in smoking) may be modified by experiences shared by twins that differ by AG and, at least for men, cultural background.

Approximating persistence in a general class of population processes

We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burial depth and cultivation influence emergence and persistence of Phalaris paradoxa seed in an Australian sub-tropical environment

Emergence and persistence characteristics of Phalaris paradoxa seeds in no- and minimum-till situations and at different burial depths were studied in a sub-tropical environment. Three experiments were carried out using naturally shed seeds. In the first experiment, seedlings emerged from May through to September each year, although the majority of seedlings emerged in July. In the second experiment with greater seed density, cultivation in March of each year stimulated seedling emergence, altered the periodicity of emergence and accelerated the decline of seeds in the seedbank compared with plots that received no cultivation. The majority of seedlings in the cultivated plots emerged in May whereas the majority of seedlings in the undisturbed plots emerged in July. Emergence accounted for only 4-19% of the seedbank in both experiments over 2 years. Seed persistence was short in both field experiments, with less than 1% remaining 2 years after seed shed. In the third experiment, burial depth and soil disturbance significantly influenced seedling emergence and persistence of seed. Seedlings emerged most from seed mixed in the top 10 cm when subjected to annual soil disturbance, and from seed buried at 2.5 and 5.0 cm depths in undisturbed soil. Emergence was least from seed on the soil surface, and buried at 10 and 15 cm depths in undisturbed soil. Seeds persisted longest when shed onto the soil surface and persisted least when the soil was tilled. These results suggest that strategic cultivation may be a useful management tool, as it will alter the periodicity of emergence allowing use of more effective control options and will deplete the soil seedbank more rapidly.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.

Ecological persistence interrupted in Caribbean coral reefs [Letter]

The recent mass mortality of Caribbean reef corals dramatically altered reef community structure and begs the question of the past stability and persistence of coral assemblages before human disturbance began. We report within habitat stability in coral community composition in the Pleistocene fossil record of Barbados for at least 95 000 years despite marked variability in global sea level and climate. Results were consistent for surveys of both common and rare taxa. Comparison of Pleistocene and modern community structure shows that Recent human impacts have changed coral community structure in ways not observed in the preceding 220 000 years.

Long-term persistence of multi-drug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Newport in two dairy herds

Objective - To evaluate the association between maintaining joint hospital and maternity pens;and persistence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport on 2 dairy farms. Design - Observational study. Sample Population - Feces and environmental samples from 2 dairy herds. Procedure - Herds were monitored for fecal shedding of S enterica Newport after outbreaks of clinical disease. Fecal and environmental samples were collected approximately monthly from pens housing sick cows and calving cows and from pens containing lactating cows. Cattle shedding the organism were tested serially on subsequent visits to determine carrier status. One farm was resampled after initiation of interventional procedures, including separation of hospital and maternity pens. Isolates were characterized via serotyping, determination of antimicrobial resistance phenotype, detection of the CMY-2 gene, and DNA fingerprinting. Results - The prevalence (32.4% and 33.3% on farms A and B, respectively) of isolating Salmonella from samples from joint hospital-maternity pens was significantly higher than the prevalence in samples from pens housing preparturient cows (0.8%, both farms) and postparturient cows on Farm B (8.8%). Multi-drug-resistant Salmonella Newport was isolated in high numbers from bedding material, feed refusals, lagoon slurry, and milk filters. One cow excreted the organism for 190 days. Interventional procedures yielded significant reductions in the prevalences of isolating the organism from fecal and environmental samples. Most isolates were of the C2 serogroup and were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance - Management practices may be effective at reducing the persistence of MDR Salmonella spp in dairy herds, thus mitigating animal and public health risk.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

West Nile and St. Louis encephalitis virus antibody seroconversion, prevalence, and persistence in naturally infected pig-tailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina)

Pig-tailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina) naturally infected with West Nile virus were monitored from 1999 to 2005 to determine virus-specific antibody seroconversion, prevalence, and persistence. Antibodies persisted for up to 36 months, as detected by epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent and hemagglutination inhibition assays. Exposure to cocirculating St. Louis encephalitis virus was evaluated by Western blotting and immunofluorescence assays.